I actually know one company's numbers - you might be surprised at the range of scenarios. I'm not sure that the IOC's really have any more insight or unanimity into the medium-term future oil price than any other knowledgeable source, and they prefer to stay out of the public forecasting game for the above reasons.

In the long run, I think everyone knows we'll be producing less oil, but price depends on what else happens to the planet''s ecology (including the human part).

Regards.

Lonnie, Just re-read your post. I guess I agree on the "contradictory" part in the sense that they are just delaying the panic that we are likely to face. I don't think any company wants to be the first to wholly endorse the need for drastic action, but certainly Total and Chevron are basically saying this, albeit in understated terms. Even Shell vaguely endorsed this view in recent comments by Van der Veer (you kinda have to read between the lines though).

LONNIE -- I'm not sure what more transparency or info you're looking for. Chevron, like all other public oil companies, has their reserves audited by third parties and that info is published as per SEC rules. As far as what price is used to establish future value the assumptions used are dictated by SEC rules also. Chevron can use their own internal guess for future pricing. They might not choose to disclose that number but then again I don't think there 's much to be gained from such knowledge myself.

I'm not sure what socially responsible action you're looking for from Chevron. To offer their internal prediction of future oil supplies or prices? What would you do with that number? Do you think all the companies are using the same magic crystal ball and they aren't telling anyone? How about pricing? Do you think anyone at Chevron predicted $147/bbl a few years before it happened? Do you think anyone at Chevron predicted $38/bbl oil last summer when it hit $147/bbl?

But there is critical information out at there that is intentionally being withheld from the public: the reserve studies of the IOC's. Saudi in particular. Much time is spent at TOD speculating on the future of Ghawar et al. The KSA has a pretty good handle on that subject. But they won't tell.

I'm don't mean to sound like I'm fussing with you. Perhaps I'm wrong but I get the impression you think the US oil patch has very accurate ideas about future reserves/prices. We might be better at guessing then many folks but they are still guesses. The reserves numbers are all on public record. And they are accurate to a degree. Daily production numbers are very accurate. We've all known about PO for decades. Estimates vary widely of course. But when you're involved in the daily hunt for new reserves it's easy to see the situation clearly. But it's not the job of an officer of a public company to make statements detrimental to the value of the company's stock. In fact that's strict prohibited by SEC law. IOW, that would be very irresponsible. The folks who are primarily responsible for laying out the cold hard facts to the public are our political leaders. and so far they all have done a lousy job IMO.