Hi Gail,

As always, a very thought-provoking post. Once again, we run up against the economics as the primary underlying problem with production. As you point out, government intervention is probably necessary to put a floor under prices to ensure that the gas actually gets produced.

I live in New York and last year took my Permaculture certificate course down in the Catskills, in the heart of the Marcellus play. To expand on the issues around opposition to current hydro-fracking practices in the area, here are a couple of points:

  1. Dick Cheney and co. specifically exempted gas producers from applicable sections of the Clean Water and Clean Air acts
  2. Fracking liquids, though clearly toxic, are protected as "trade secrets", so no public body can judge what the potential dangers are
  3. Fracking uses A LOT of water- I've seen estimates between 2 and 6 million gallons per well head
  4. Questions about where the millions of gallons of water would come from remain unanswered
  5. Some of this water stays underground- evidence from similar plays in Colorado and Wyoming show methane and other contaminants moving into groundwater aquifers
  6. Most of the water is returned to the surface and usually disposed of at the surface, in open pits, partly lined with plastic
  7. The NY DEC has roughly 19 enforcement officers who would need to oversee thousands of wells and disposal sites
  8. Governor Paterson ordered the DEC to revisit its ecological impact assessment after it became clear that existing precautions were insufficient
  9. The Catskills region contains the headwaters to both the Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay watersheds, fed by Delaware, Chenango and Susquehanna rivers
  10. Farther west, but still in the Marcellus, the Allegheny river feeds the Ohio and subsequently the Mississippi

Boone Pickens proposed last year switching the vehicle fleet to NG, while replacing the electricity production with wind. What are your thoughts on what this would do in evening out the fluctuations in the price cycle?

Regarding water, this is another issue that needs to be looked at. The water injection is at many feet below the water table, and the track record seems to be pretty good in the past. But if there is a lot more fracing and it is near populated areas, one wants to be pretty sure that things are working out as planned.

Regarding switching vehicles to natural gas, the tricky part is the way to switch just the right number (in the right locations) to natural gas. Our pipelines and storage are not all that adequate. If a number of vehicles were added in the Northeast, we could end up with not enough natural gas to run our electric power plants there.

The vehicles that are added would have to be limited in number, and added near where the natural gas is produced. I would think it might be used primarily for short-range commercial vehicle, that could fill-up fairly frequently in the same location.

One thing I forgot to mention is that Pepacton and Cannonsville reservoirs, ie. all the drinking water for NYC is right there as well.

Another issue is the resale of the leases. On the one hand, the drilling rights and royalties could potentially bring wealth to some of the poorest counties in NY State. On the other hand, with rapid whipsaw crash of prices, I've heard that Chesapeake and others are selling off their rights- to Chinese companies is what I heard, but can't verify. Once somethings on the market, it never comes off.

Basically my feeling about energy is that it counts as infrastructure, and ought to be managed as heavily regulated geographic monopolies. This would go back to the 60s model of things. A floor price could be guaranteed. I don't believe de-regulation of energy (or telecom or other infrastructures that used to be PSC-regulated) has in any way made infrastructure cheaper or easier or better. It's fascinating that we now want stability without, somehow, government intervention...