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81 comments on Natural Gas Revisited

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Gail the Actuary on June 3, 2009 - 3:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The majors are the ones involved in offshore work. Offshore production was very much impacted by the two hurricanes, and the same time that onshore production surged. Breaking out the production the way he does, he is basically breaking out mostly offshore from 100% onshore. The remaining part is also onshore. It can be expected to act like the rest of the onshore--that is, have a big increase.

I think Simmons is worried about nothing. To me, the data looks right.

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westexas on June 4, 2009 - 10:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I haven't seen the article (I'm supposed to get a copy later today--maybe someone else has a copy?), but reportedly Natural Gas Daily has an article about the EIA looking at revising their NG production methodology--because of the discrepancy between what their numbers show and what public companies are reporting.

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elwoodelmore on June 4, 2009 - 6:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

did you get a copy ? the api will allow a free trial subscription hook.

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westexas on June 5, 2009 - 12:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Excerpt down below. The article noted that Raymond James showed an increase of less than 1% in natural gas production from public companies from Q4 2007 to Q1 2008, while the EIA showed a 3% increase in total production, although Raymond James is showing more of increase in Q1 2009 than the EIA.

I was in a meeting with Matt and a group of people in his office a few weeks ago, and Matt was quite adamant that he though that there were problems with the EIA natural gas numbers. He is concerned that the decline in drilling will put the industry in a position where we may not be able to catch up with demand--perhaps as soon as late 2010. He also thinks the Qatar reserves are significantly overstated.

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westexas on June 4, 2009 - 11:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here is an excerpt:

From the June 4, 2009 Gas Daily:

EIA reviewing accuracy of production estimates

The Energy Information Administration is considering revising its methodology for estimating monthly US natural gas production, saying it has become concerned that its data may not be accurate.

Gary Long, an EIA petroleum engineer who works on the report, said the administraion is assembling a team of outside consultants to review how the survey, known as EIA-914, is conducted.

"In the last half of 2998, we started seeing some estimates we weren't quite sure about," Long said Tuesday. "We just had gut feelings that some of these numbers weren't quite right, and maybe the (statistical) model wasn't performing the way it should."

. . . the EIA-914 survey has prompted some head-scratching among analysts over the past year, as the agency's production numbers have differed sharply from those compiled by independent analysts.

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81 comments on Natural Gas Revisited

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