Great post Cameron, and very timely with Prof Kjell Aleklett in Australia for the next 10 days. He will be meeting numerous Government and industry people next week and I will draw his attention to the neat way you have recalibrated the NESA fuel security framework. I am sure Kjell will be able to make use of your appraisal in his discussions and presentations, helping him raise concerns about the realism of the LFVA and NESA. I will also send the Energy White Paper secretariat a link to your post to make sure they review it as an input to the Green Paper they are now preparing.

Essentially what you have done here is present a well-argued alternative scenario which differs in important ways from the single perspective of the future described in the NESA. I have argued since April that it is vital for the Energy White Paper to explore the policy implications of a range of significantly different energy scenarios out to 2030, and here you have provided one.

I really like your calm and professional writing style which should connect well with senior-level audiences like those Kjell will be meeting. We can't be sure of the immediate impact on Business As Usual but it certainly helps to have well-organised thinking like this post to challenge professional audiences.

Cheers, Mark