104 comments on Profiting from Scarcity
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GAIA Host Collective
Thanks for your insights!
It seems to me that the critical element in macroeconomics is that we are dealing with a finite system, rather than an infinite system. Thus, one has to expect that limits will be reached.
I think economists always have assumed the system is so large, that these limits were not material, but experience is proving that this is not the case.
A very good thought motivating report. My simplistic view: it's a system (be it finite or not) composed of finite systems. The obvious example for me is O&G exploration. When I started in 1975 there was a big new play starting: the Deep Tuscaloosa in La. Even the concept that such a play could exist where it did was ground breaking. At that time there were still a lot of places to drill along the Texas coast but these opportunities were just the residual of the plays discovered in the 30's and 40's. Those plays have now withered to very little residual potential as has the Tusc. This was no surprise to the industry: it very easy to see the limits of each play even in its initial development. There are always obvious physical limits to every geologic province. Today the Deep Water plays of Brazil and the GOM are hot commodities. But their individual limits are as obvious as plays discovered 60 years ago. There may certainly be new plays yet to be discovered but that's another matter. In the end the earth is finite and all plays will be exploited eventually. and then there will be no more.
Now back to the economic system. Is there any part of the system that can truly be classified as infinite? Consider material transportation: Horses were replaced by wagons which were replaced by trains which have been replaced (to a degree) by trucks and airplanes. In the early part of the 20th century it must have been obvious to many that horses would be replaced by the ICE. Today many speculate that the ICE will be replaced by the X alternative vehicle (pick your own flavor). Some see nuclear as the system to replace FF for our primary energy source. Without resorting to Star Trek fantasies can we speculate on future technologies which might make the ecosystem sustainable? In the case of the financial system can we replace those finite components which have outlived their viability with a new component? Some may come up with logical though not practical solution. Mass murder of 4 or 5 billion folks could reset the system for sure. But that’s not likely (hopefully) to be employed.
Wide open possibilities for some sense of stability. Have at it.
The wackos who accept the premise that world oil production will peak--or more accurately probably has peaked--believe that the sum of the output of a group of depleting sources of energy, e.g., Texas & the North Sea, will also show a production peak.
The conventional wisdom, most eloquently stated by Peter Huber and Michael Lynch, is that a sum of the output of a group of depleting energy sources will show a virtually infinite rate of increase in production. Peter Huber explicitly states that our energy production and our consumption will increase forever. As I have previously outlined, this is analogous to expecting that while the individual oil wells in a field will peak and decline, the field production--the sum of the output of a group of depleting wells--will increase forever. These types of fields exist in areas occupied by elves, fairies, unicorns and other mythical creatures.
And remember, the Peak Oilers are widely considered to be the nutcases, while Peter Huber believes that the sum of the output of regions like Texas and the North Sea will show an infinite rate of increase in production:
The real issue to me is not whether there are "limits" in that there are never limits if you're always able to apply more effort, but how to define the limit of how return is worth the effort. I'm working on a more formal treatment, but it's simple to understand that if increasing investment makes resources increasingly unavailable, that itself is a real final limit to the usefulness of growth, and counterproductive. I think the real limit of growth is the inflection point right smack in the middle of the "S" curve, because that's where increasing investment produced decreasing returns.
Thanks for the help in making it better!
...that point may have been a while back (1999?) and has been masked by a little proxy for real effort known as "money" (of which an infinite supply exists...)
Nice article btw. I needed 'both heads' to read it but I think I understood most of it.
Nick.
Nick, I think it was before then. I think the time when the earth started to give steadily increasing resistance to physical investment and decreasing real returns, what 'depletion' really means, is what caused money to turn to financial schemes for continually growing returns. Yes, there is an infinite potential for creating money, but I see the time when physical system investment became less profitable and financial investments took over as long before 1999. The turning point I see turns up in lots of history curves at about the same time, as in this curve from Charlie Hall with my overlay of the "S" curve implied, showing the history of US energy use:
