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35 comments on Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data

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majorian on June 19, 2009 - 1:32am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Interesting report.

The technological sophistication of the oil companies in discovery and extraction is really quite amazing but the projections seem small and don't support a massive expansion(Drill,drill,drill).

Without a giant strike, will modest returns payback for all the technology and miles of special pipe?
(Is deepwater a $25 per barrel surcharge?, no wonder deepwater is moving to bigger sites like Brazil, Angola)

EIA gives GOM production currently ~.5 Gb oil/yr and ~3 Tcf/yr of gas
so GOM should be producing for many decades to come but current production of both are falling(hurricanes?).

As I remember the report gives projected reserves of 19 Gb oil and 181 Tcf of gas.

I think I read somewhere that ALL deepwater was only 60 Gb oil?

This post gives 23 Gb oil and 200 Tcf gas based on creaming curves. Does this support using creaming curves?

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ace on June 19, 2009 - 3:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think I read somewhere that ALL deepwater was only 60 Gb oil?

In 2001, Jean Laherrere discussed deepwater (>300 m) production and assumed two scenarios for oil ultimates of 80 Gb and 100 Gb. About 50 Gb had already been found up to year 2000.
http://www.greatchange.org/ov-laherrere,sep_28_01.pdf

There was also this discussion about deepwater oil in a semi annual report from FPA Capital Fund in 2007.
http://www.fpafunds.com/downloads/capital/September%2030,%202007.pdf
It was stated that deepwater (>400 m) proved and probably (similar to ultimate) was 78 Gb according to data from Bank of America. In addition, it was also stated that deepwater production is expected to double from 4 mbd in 2006 to over 8 mbd by 2011 according to estimates from Bank of America and Wood Mackenzie.

In his April 2007 newsletter, Colin Campbell discussed deepwater (>500 m) with an estimated oil ultimate of 80 Gb including some 65 Gb already found up to end 2006.
http://www.energiekrise.de/e/aspo_news/aspo/newsletter076.pdf

Campbell's chart from April 2007 predicted deepwater production reaching 12.4 mbd in 2011. However, Campbell has revised this peak down to 8.6 mbd in October 2008. My estimate is that an extended 7.0 mbd peak plateau is probable as many deepwater projects have been delayed due to low oil prices and the credit crisis.

Brazil is a significant deepwater producer but appears to be having problems increasing production as all offshore production (crude and NGL) seems to have stabilised at about 1.8 mbd. The chart below shows that Brazil's production has reached a plateau for March through May 2009.
http://www2.petrobras.com.br/ri/ing/DestaquesOperacionais/ExploracaoProd...

As most of Brazil's 2009 projects have already started, Brazil's crude and condensate production will probably be below 2 mbd for 2009 on an annualised basis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects_(2009)

The IEA shows a small amount of growth for Brazil crude oil later in the year.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/14may09sup.pdf

In 2010, Brazil's crude and condensate production might be about 2.2 mbd as there is over 0.4 mbd capacity additions of which about 0.2 mbd will be needed to offset declining production from existing fields.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects_(2010)

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35 comments on Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data

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