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35 comments on Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
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35 comments on Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
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Hello Jean, Luis, Tony [Ace], et al,
Thxs again for the much-admired data-freak work!
When one ponders Ace's historical GoM hurricane & future forecast:
1. The hurricane induced downward glitches are remarkable for their size, depth, frequency, and duration, which cumulatively add to the overall -3.5%/yr decline rate by their sheer destructiveness and the necessity for early shutdown and evacuation of offshore workers.
2. Even if the latest and greatest tech & safety measures are incorporated into future deepwater rigs, FSPOs, pipelines, etc--nobody wants to be a hero and try to work through a CAT 1-5. Thus, the infrastructure might ride out the huge waves and winds just fine, but it will still be idle during these storms [which adds to the total cost of GoM oil & natgas extraction].
3. The weak link seems to be the Power Grid in the onshore GoM as the hi-tension power towers and other electrical equipment get blown down or disabled with great regularity when the hurricane comes ashore. So having the offshore rigs safe doesn't help much until the Grid is sufficiently restored to electrojuice the on-shore refineries and other critical equipment.
4. Compare 1,2,3 above with offshore MidEast [ME] or even Brazil. What a the chances of a hurricane [cyclone] threading the Strait of Hormuz, then continuing on up through the ME offshore infrastructure? IMO, practically nothing. The Ins. Cos. and bean-counters must consider the ME very weather-safe as compared to the GoM, and probably charge the GoM companies much more.
This 1,2,3,4 probably forces the GoM operators to get the FFs out quick compared to a more leisurely ME extraction, if the ME so desired.
IF Florida & Cuba eventually open up to drilling, since the prevailing winds and pressure systems tend to make many hurricanes 'hook right' in the GoM: the future production downward 'glitches' may become even more frequent as more offshore equipment gets dispersed across the entire GoM. As a prior weblink had noted in another thread: let's hope no major crude leak happens in Florida or Cuba whereby the Gulf Stream carries the crude to both E & W FL beaches.
In conclusion: I was glad to see Ace's 'little' forecasted 2009 hurricane glitch [although mostly hidden by the white box with 2007 Dean text]. But I was hoping his forecasted smooth decline line would have a bunch of hypothetical hurricane glitches out to 2030 as this seems highly probable.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Some more thoughts: notice the hurricane glitches never sent production down to ZERO. As we proceed downslope: won't future GoM glitches hit ZERO & MOL every more frequently, thus forcing the glitch duration [width] to vastly increase? Now add in WT's ELM to the GoM equation: wouldn't that make the glitch recovery even more delayed,thus adding even more extra width to each hurricane glitch?
For example: assume we hit Zero from a big Cat 5. We can't get things in the GoM even minimally restarted until we pull from the SPR or other finished fuel reserve unaffected by the 'Cane. Since this will take some time--it adds time to the glitch width back to some later recovery point. But a lot of companies could go broke while they wait for FFs and electrojuice [plus workers] to restart their operations.
Sorry, I don't have the expertise to thrash this concept out further. But maybe some other TODers can numerically flog this dog?
A minimal Cat 5 hurricane has a windspeed of over 135 kts which is about twice the speed of a Cat 1 and has aproximately 8 times the destructive force because the power of the wind increases as the cube of the wind speed. Since I live in South Florida less than two miles from the beach I've hunkered down through Cat 2s and 3s. I know first hand the results, it ain't pretty. To suggest that a rig can take a direct hit from a Cat 5 and come through unscathed is what I would call being unduly optimistic...
BTW I've read some where on NOAA's website that there was some talk of upping the ante by adding a Cat 6 to the Saffir-Simpson Scale due to the possibility of more intense hurricanes in the future.
Hopefully the rigs of the future will be designed to handle 30 ft waves and 200 kt winds. As for the ones out there now, good luck with them.
Hello FMagyar,
Thxs for your reply. Yep, perhaps I was unduly optimistic--I can still recall the photo of the Thunderhorse platform badly hammered and listing heavily...A platform able to withstand a CAT 6 might be impossible to engineer.
Maybe not. Though the EROEI for the oil recovered by such a rig would probably be more negative than the actual impact of a Cat 6 ;-)
After hurricane Dennis, Thunderhorse was listing due to a fault in the construction causing some of the ballast tanks to overfill when evacuation procedures were followed; this was not a direct consequence of hurricane winds or waves.
Shell's Auger platform logged sustained 125 mph (Cat 3) winds before the anemometer blew out when the eye of Ike passed by. It was back online within weeks. These platforms are designed for cat 5 survival. "Typoon, a small spar, and many older shelf platforms, however didn't make it through 2005.
My question, which is slightly off point, is: to what extent is accelerated production occurring also in order to get an adequate IRR on these fields that are so capital intensive?
I ask because I'm curious (ok, maybe even a little obsessed) about how such factors might adversely skew the world production curve. It would also seem to be a factor that accentuates boom and bust cycles.