44 comments on Oilwatch Monthly June 2009
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44 comments on Oilwatch Monthly June 2009
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Bob,
I believe that the EIA has their own project list which is supplied by IHS(CERA). IHS use low decline rates for the existing production base.
That 5 mbd gap in 2012 between my forecast and the EIA AEO 2009 is large. However, the EIA has some optimistic forecasts. For example, liquids production from the US is forecast to increase from 8.49 mbd in 2008 to 8.91 mbd in 2010. The Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe is forecast to increase from 12.76 mbd in 2008 to 13.09 mbd in 2010.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?tableNumber=29...
My models use a combination of decline rates, extraction rates and remaining recoverable reserves to forecast for each non OPEC country. All the non OPEC forecasts are aggregated to produce a total forecast.
Another way to forecast is to apply a decline rate of about 6%/yr to existing conventional non OPEC crude and condensate production of 40 mbd. That means that 2.4 mbd of production additions are needed just to remain at 40 mbd. My non OPEC capacity addition chart shows about 1.7 mbd capacity for 2009. This capacity has to be discounted by about 20% to estimate the annualised production additions from the projects to give about 1.4 mbd non OPEC production additions for 2009.
That's 1 mbd less than the required 2.4 mbd so that means a 1 mbd production decline for 2009 assuming no unplanned maintenance, hurricane outages, terrorist attacks on oil infrastructure or any other supply interrupting events.
I'm sure that the future non OPEC production will be closer to my forecast than to the EIA's.
Tony
Thxs for the reply, and I agree that your forecast will probably predict future production more accurately than the EIA forecast. They should hire you to help steer them straight, LOL! :)
"Rockdoc123" at peakoil.com says part of the IHS staff keeps tabs on new projects, compiling data in exhaustive detail, as you might expect. This of course isn't available for free like the Wiki.
What is the typical time line for a project's discovery/development, anyway? Tupi is taking 4 years, is that par for the course, or could project startups be announced this year that will see first oil in 2011? This is something I can't recall seeing analyzed here. The impact of new semi subs and drillships should be taken into account as well.
As you probably suspect Dude there’s a wide range depending on specifics. Here’s a time line that wouldn’t be the fastest but it many cases this would be a quick development program. Discovery logged 1 Jan Year 1. Before any detailed planning for facilities and additional wells at least one confirmation well will be drilled. The CF well might be drilled in the next few months but given how rigs are scheduled it would likely be a year before its spudded. So on 1 Jan Year 2 CF is spudded. Well logged in 6 months confirming pay. To confirm reservoir deliverability tests must be conducted. So 1 Jan Year 3 tests begin. Add 4 months for tests. So 1 June Year 3 begin design of production facilities. So 1 Jan Year 4 design complete and bids let (this would be really fast). So 1 June Year 5 production facilities completed (very fast track). So 1 Nov Year 5 facilities set on location. During Years 3 and 4 the development wells might have been drilled subsea and temporarily abandoned. Assume a total of 4 wells. So by 1 Jan Year 6 developed wells tied into production facilities. So by 1 June Year 6 wells are completed and begin producing (again, this was done very quickly by normal standards).
Bottom line: 4 or 5 years wouldn’t be a surprise. Maybe a year quicker but maybe it might take an extra 2 years. Again, just one possible timeline.
Thanks ROCK - figured you might chime in. Analysis of past project timelines would make for a juicy article, including a chart with Kashagan as your outlier. Or kerogen. How long has that been "delayed" now, 120 years?
Actually parsing the 2006 Discoveries List from IHS I can't find any correspondence in the Wiki Megaprojects. Perhaps some of these are halfway through your timeline and will surprise us soon with fresh production?