44 comments on Oilwatch Monthly June 2009
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44 comments on Oilwatch Monthly June 2009
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Thxs for the reply, and I agree that your forecast will probably predict future production more accurately than the EIA forecast. They should hire you to help steer them straight, LOL! :)
"Rockdoc123" at peakoil.com says part of the IHS staff keeps tabs on new projects, compiling data in exhaustive detail, as you might expect. This of course isn't available for free like the Wiki.
What is the typical time line for a project's discovery/development, anyway? Tupi is taking 4 years, is that par for the course, or could project startups be announced this year that will see first oil in 2011? This is something I can't recall seeing analyzed here. The impact of new semi subs and drillships should be taken into account as well.
As you probably suspect Dude there’s a wide range depending on specifics. Here’s a time line that wouldn’t be the fastest but it many cases this would be a quick development program. Discovery logged 1 Jan Year 1. Before any detailed planning for facilities and additional wells at least one confirmation well will be drilled. The CF well might be drilled in the next few months but given how rigs are scheduled it would likely be a year before its spudded. So on 1 Jan Year 2 CF is spudded. Well logged in 6 months confirming pay. To confirm reservoir deliverability tests must be conducted. So 1 Jan Year 3 tests begin. Add 4 months for tests. So 1 June Year 3 begin design of production facilities. So 1 Jan Year 4 design complete and bids let (this would be really fast). So 1 June Year 5 production facilities completed (very fast track). So 1 Nov Year 5 facilities set on location. During Years 3 and 4 the development wells might have been drilled subsea and temporarily abandoned. Assume a total of 4 wells. So by 1 Jan Year 6 developed wells tied into production facilities. So by 1 June Year 6 wells are completed and begin producing (again, this was done very quickly by normal standards).
Bottom line: 4 or 5 years wouldn’t be a surprise. Maybe a year quicker but maybe it might take an extra 2 years. Again, just one possible timeline.
Thanks ROCK - figured you might chime in. Analysis of past project timelines would make for a juicy article, including a chart with Kashagan as your outlier. Or kerogen. How long has that been "delayed" now, 120 years?
Actually parsing the 2006 Discoveries List from IHS I can't find any correspondence in the Wiki Megaprojects. Perhaps some of these are halfway through your timeline and will surprise us soon with fresh production?