I have a technically oriented education and spend a LOT of time reading the various newspapers ,web sites, and magazines that cover agriculture,energy,environment,you name it-mostly for my own edification but also because I still plan on living comfortably for a while and spotting the big trends early might make all the difference.

Twenty or thirty years ago I was told by reputable journalists that the world was thoroughly explored and that there would be no more major oil finds.I believed it.

Now I read that new finds are real possibilites/actualities due to deep water tech mostly.I believe it.

(I still believe in po,and have intellectually since I can't remember when,but I have only taken the concept seriously in recent years as it didn't matter much to me as long as it was another few years away.)

No matter what I look into it seems that the issue really is in doubt,and that the results are determined as much or more by the public relations wars fought by investors,lobbyists,environmentalists,and deal cutting politicians as by the engineering and biological facts-which are themselves disputed in nearly every case,even though there may be no dispute among the technically literate in SOME cases.

I'm not a genius but I am a lot smarter than your average bear,as is the case with 99 percent of the people who post on this site.

Now if I(and I am sure many or most other OD regulars) am often confused as to the actual facts regarding many serious issues and the most likely implications thereof,what chance does Joe SixPack or your high school English teacher-who most likely has only the barest fig leaf of a science course to her credit-have of sorting out the sci fi from the science?

It is perfectably understandable that the average citizens eyes glaze over at the mere mention of most of the stuff debated here.

Now that I've had my little rant and caffiene fix I feel a little better.

Plus my algal optimism meter has moved back into the green again.

The response here to the algae book review encourages me to believe that this technology will take off.I have long thought that it would someday become viable,and the drainage end of a feedlot looks like a very good spot for it to work at a primitive or early level.Land is cheap,water is available,any feed produced need not be transported very far,and any nutrient rich sludge can be spread on corn fields a good many miles away cheaper than most other commercial fertilizers can be produced and distributed.

If it doesn't work all the time not much is lost so long as it works well enough and often enough to pay its way,as any additional cleanup and recycling is better than none.

The key FACT INVOLVED is that if this process can be tuned to capture most of the phosphorus now being lost in waste water,it will enable us to put of the day of reckoning visavis phosphorus for a few more years-perhaps even a a couple of decades if it can be adapted to sewage treatment plants on a very large scale.Phosphorus is apt to be a very expensive commodity long before then,which will help keep the investors interested.

The algal chain of IFS-the biggest two letter word- is not so long that success is an impossible long shot imo-and we need to focus all our efforts on things that can be made to work within a couple of decades or bau is toast.

Mac,

Who cares about Joe 6 pak? His day has come and gone.

How long have you been reading TOD. I could be wrong but the current belief is that the world has been rather explored and what is there or not there is very well understood.

This is my take from being here about 3 years.

If you haven't been then I don't think you would be asking these questions for it has been discussed over and over beyond belief or the ability of the mind to comprehend.

And that being so we are now in the end games. This is what has caused a sea change in the essay posts on TOD. Pretty much taken for granted that its going to be real tough from here on out.

Yes there is demand destruction and it has an effect.

So better to just sit back and read and not try to bring up what has been asked and answered an incredible number of times.

DO you see cornucopians once more trodding the halls of TOD? NO. You do NOT for its pretty obvious.

Algae,windmills,PV,light rail, whatever...its picking and playing favorites now and the debates continue.

The reality , my takeaway, is get your ass ready. All else recedes to the distant view.

Airdale-of course I could be wrong, we all could be wrong but I am surely not betting my life on it. We called it WTSHTF..words I hardly ever see again since I believe it futile , but fun, to discuss the same issues over and over and over....but have at it anyway....its only bits and bytes and the Debil take the hindmost..and of course ifn the creek don't rise....and Giddyup mule....(my neighbor has 8 donkeys and a couple mules..some of which will soon be mine if we can work a trade. ....the ass end of a hard working mule says much..NO?

Airdale,

I'm afraid you are right,and I'm putting a good bit of effort in getting ready for a category five shit storm.

I am not convinced that it will hit as soon as you think-I may not be around to see it.

Since I am old enough now that I find it wise to take a break frequently when I feel the old ticker beginning to break into a gallop,I'm going with stashed diesel and betting if I run out that I can get hold of enough of something to run one of our old tractors.

Younger folks should definitely think about draft anomals.

Tractors are harder to steal than mules if you remove a couple of small parts and they don't eat if you don't use them.We can park ours w/i buckshot range of the front door when it becomes necessary.

I may build a wood gasifier this year if I can get to it.If our tractor breaks so that I can't fix it,I guess there will be plenty around with empty fuel tanks that can be had cheap- for a truckload of corn or a few hundred rounds of rifle ammo,maybe.

We have only been able to get a good internet connection for a few months.I never knew about the
Oil Drum before that.I have used the net occasionally for years but only when traveling or on campus.The local phone lines are so bad that dial up is WORSE than useless.Nobody can stay connected more than five minutes at a time.

Plus I have a lot of free time now.

You are correct that Joe's day is about over.I guess that he has anywhere from ten more days(-in the event of an unexpected hot war) to twenty years(-before the economy grinds to a halt due to total overshoot/peakeverything) to kiss lifestyle and very possibly his life goodby.Time frame is My own guess as informed by studying content of this and other sites plus reading a good book every two to seven days for fifty years.

The Oil Drum is imo by far the best all around single site dealing with energy and sustainability,but there are some supposedly good ones I haven't visited yet.