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170 comments on DrumBeat: June 16, 2009
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170 comments on DrumBeat: June 16, 2009
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GAIA Host Collective
It downplays it-Detroit had a major violent crime problem when the city had a strong economy (40 years ago) and it has steadily gotten worse. The oil depletion implications for the USA are that unlike many other countries, the USA cannot easily densify urban development in many cities-Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, Cleveland and many others. The violent criminal element drags down residential and commercial investment, making large scale urban redensification impossible in many of these large cities. American suburbanites get a lot of warranted criticism, but American suburbanities face real urban problems not faced by Europeans or Canadians. If the USA is going to transition successfully to a post peak world, it will have to realistically and honestly face the challenge of taking back many of its urban centres from the violent criminal element. Currently, this is impossible as it is not politically acceptable to even acknowledge the reality (as in this article that makes a glancing reference to slower police response times).
I agree with your analysis--
Any ideas on how to accomplish this, other than setting up even more of an oppressive police state?
Urban areas in the US are often scary, and I have spent quite a bit of time in Bogota Columbia.
On the "bright" side, suburban crime is increasing as the housing crisis worsens. So maybe people will move to cities simply because suburban crime is just as bad or worse. :-/
legalize drugs:
The USA lost the war on drugs decades ago.
Anyone have an ERoEI for the war on drugs?
No they didn't. They just weren't on the side you thought they were.
But, agreed wrt legalization.
Blondie,
You are so right it hurts.
Unfortunately we seldom do what is right but rather what is politically expedient and we have too many cops,lawyers,judges,and politicians depending on the war on drugs for things to change in this respect until thirty or forty million older voterswho know in thier hearts about the devil weed are replaced by younger ones.
It is patently ridiculous to lock up somebody for smoking pot when he copuld be paying a couple of thousend bucks a year in taxes on his smoke-and still getting it cheaper than black market.
Legalizing drug take would do away with 99 percent of drug related crime,and allow society to focus on treatment rather than punishment.
True conservatives and liberterians adhere to this pov,as well as younger folks who detest the republican establishment.
It's time for a little political bridge building.
Don't hold your breath for legalization (unless they are waterboarding you) http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=7800340
trekker -- If it's that oppressive where you live now you might consider moving to Houston. Currently here the individual is primarily responsible for their protection. This isn’t a shot our cops. They do their best. But the best they can do is work on solving crimes already committed and writing speeding tickets. Don’t drive over the speed limit or commit a crime and you can live here 30 years without even meeting a cop let alone be oppressed by one. For a major city Houston may not be as bad as many when it comes to crime. But the rules here have been very clear for a long time: you are responsible for preventing a crime against you and yours…not the police. Unfortunately that requires a bit of self-induced paranoia to make yourself watch your back though.
That's news to Robbie Tolan.
Thanks Leanan. I hadn't heard abut that shooting. But it does emphasize my point...a little. He was shot because the cop had thought he stole the car. Poor policing for sure. But it was a shooting while investigating a possible crime...not trying to prevent one. And knowing the Bellaire cops being black was the guy's first mistake. I wasn't kidding about an almost complete lack of crime prevention by the establishment here. I'm not sure we're much different then other big towns. But I can tell you the attitude of many here when listening to a victem's story: why did you allow yourself to be in the situation in the first place? It's not exactly the old west here but most folks expect you to be armed and able to defend yourself. And that does make you cautious when approaching someone in a dark parking lot. They might not be one of the bad guys but they might think you are.
p.s. Been in Houston oveer 30 years and never met an HPD cop. Probably never been within 100' of one. But I was once handcuffed in the back seat of a county deputy sheriff's car once...way to long a story for TOD but he did let me go when the confusion was cleared.
It's a very sad case. Made national news, because Robbie Tolan's dad was a fairly well-known baseball player. Otherwise, I doubt anyone would have cared. The kid's baseball career may be over, because of the shooting.
They suspected him of stealing the car, apparently because he was young and dark-skinned. The car was his parent's. It wasn't a particularly expensive car, either. But apparently, they thought it was too nice for a guy like him to drive, and so they ran the plate number. They mistyped the number, though - that's why it came back as stolen.
They forced him down in his driveway. His mom came out of the house, and freaked. They started shoving her around, and he started to get up. To protect her, I guess. That's when they shot him.
And what will happen to that cop?
What could be done that would be 'justice'?
*shakes head*
*finds a bottle of booze and drinks away the sad*
How in the heck can you live in Houston and not have heard of this case???!!! I am living here again and it was big news for a while -- all the TV stations, in the Chronicle, etc.
Strange.
BTW, did you hear of Hurricane Ike?
I actually live in Baytown displaced. Not that we're that far from Houston but I pay little attention to local news outside of the politics of Baytown or the state. I probably haven't bought the Chronicle in 10 years and have no reason to watch local stations. It's a big world out there with many aspects that will affect me and mine. Outside of politics and road work local events don't impact me. Growing up in S La. 40+ years ago where being black automaticly makes you suspect has probably desensatized me to a degree about such abuses. Also, I'm as far away from being a sports fan as one can get so that angle wouldn't have garnered a second look.
Rockman,
You are dead on regarding crime and self defense.We do suffer the occasional bank robbery around here,but even guys dumb enough to rob a bank know that bank clerks aren't allowed to bring a gun to work.
Such burglars as we have are extremely careful to make sure thier victims are not home,and home invasions are so rare that most folks don't know what the words mean.
Convenience store robberies are rare ,even though most of the chain stores have a no waepon policy.Ya just can't be sure a redneck store clerk cares more about his job than his life,ya see,and rednecks are notorious for hauling out thier piece when threatened. THEREFORE store robberies are rare.You don't go to jail in Va or the Carolinas for defending yourself.
Physical violence is limited mostly to the wife abuse category.
We do lose an occasional citizen to a jealous husband with a pistol or a careless drunk,but as I see it,jealous husbands and drunks can and do kill with golf clubs and automobiles.
We lose thousands of lives every year to accidents and untreated disease.The people so hot to collect our weapons don't seem to be very excited about this preventable loss of life,thus leaving me wondering about thier true motives.
Now if somebody like Bernie Madoff stole my life savings,or my parents life savings,his life wouldn't be worth a wooden nickel-if he lived around here.I find it HARD to understand why SOMEBODY of the many who have been robbed by such white collar criminals doesn't just shoot one of them ONCE in a while.
I'm sure a few such incidences would have a salutary effect on the incidence of big time white collar crime.
Call me an unreconstructed redneck if you like,but I AM rational.Mostly.
I'm really sorry about the kid the cops shot.
THe ones involved should be busted to clerks with no possibility of ever carrying a firearm on business again,at least.
Thier superiors should busted to privates and never be promoted again.
This policy works keeping the armed forces leadership on thier toes.
Remember that I'm just a crabby old farmer and not to be taken too seriously-unless the subject is ag.
Brian,
The idea that Detroit has a problem with violence and crime is hardly news. It's not necessary to make this article go down that path, which is hardly 'the unmentioned elephant in the room'.. it's practically planted in Detroit's definition, worse than most cities.
Sometimes you have to stop just staring at the rushing Hippo and focus on climbing the tree.
Bob
Exactly my point-the USA can address oil depletion as long as political correctness is maintained at all costs, which means oil depletion will not be addressed in the USA.
Of course, one of our many problems is that we can't afford our current level of government spending, all the way from local to state to federal. The next bubble to pop will be government spending, as revenues continue to contract--leading to more and more municipal bankruptcies, reductions in services and employee layoffs.
My state, North Carolina, is facing a $4 Billion reduction in spending this year. I recall hearing that one of the proposed solutions is to close several prisons (perhaps 8). The implications of this should be obvious...
E. Swanson
Maybe. Will violent offenders be released before people who are locked-up for drug related offenses? There are over 500,000 people in prison on drug offenses today. It is not entirely obvious that releasing them will affect me.
When you have close to 1% in prison -- you would ask -- what the heck wrong!!! 5x Britain, 12x Japan -- that is what we have.
If other countries managed fine with a much much less population (rate) in prison (and it's more effective too) why can't we?
Different interests (politicians, police, for-profit prisons, etc...) used "fear tactic" to keep the prison population high only to benefit them -- it does nothing to benefit us.
Britain should have a lot more. Sentences are short and even now prisons are overcrowded. This was due to political infighting between the Home Office(who run prisons) and the Treasury(who control the money). Supply of prison space fell well behind demand.
Take away the law library. Take away the cable tvs. Take away the exercise equipment. Shut down all country club prisons which exist for the rich folks and politicos caught.
Make it a real prison and the inmates grow their own food. Put them to work on civic projects.
There is lots that can be done. When crime is punished maybe the offenders will stop breaking the law.
I remember a prison in Raleigh where the inmates were always just apparently walking out or jumping a fence. It was a sick joke back then.
Airdale
Shut down all country club prisons which exist for the rich folks and politicos caught.
Stuart? I like you. You're not like the other people here
in the trailer park. Oh no, don't get me wrong, they're fine people, good
Americans.
And that is why we have a seperate place for your lockup Stuart.
This is so true, I had not thought of it as a bubble but it is, and as we all know bubbles burst.
A sharp drastic drop in U.S. government spending would, even in the best of times, case serious repercussions, imagine what would - will happen, if the government stops its spending in the middle of this economic crash.
Of course once the so called stimulus money is all spent, if there is not another package after that the results will be quite dramatic as well.
If the current package does not work and the government has to start to cut spending to pacify the holders of US debt then the economy will be going down the drain with nothing to grab on to on the way to oblivion.
It is surprising that few understand that government spending has to be financed by somebody and if nobody has any money to finance it, then by definition government employees and their lucrative pensions, etc. cannot be financed. There seems to be a feeling among the public that this money comes out of the ether or out of Barack's pocket.
Maybe we'll all end up working for the government. "We pretend to work, they pretend to pay us."
I think that the crunch will hit first on the local and state level. California is an ongoing example of where more states will be.
Actually, California with its absurd approach to taxation and baggage like Prop 13, is unlike most states, which is why I am very happy not to live there anymore, and many of its citizens behave like ostriches: My sister and brother-in-law weren't the only ones who didn't even know there was to be a special election regarding California's budget crisis.
I can't agree on that one-IMO California would be in even more trouble than it is without Prop 13. Any jurisdiction that tries to fund out of control spending by gouging property owners eventually runs into a wall as the property values are impeded by the outrageous property taxes (Florida,NJ,etc.)
Brian,Leanan,every body,
Please EVERYBODY ELSE-stop here and think a minute what happens when and if the government runs out of money.
A local government may actually have to bite the bullet and reduce spending,as is frequently happening these days ,up to the state level.
On the other hand there is absolutely NOBODY OR NOTHING capable of preventing the FEDERAL government of the US( or any other national government,for that matter) from continueing to spend by printing the money when it can no longer be borrowed-if congress and the president choose to do so.
Now if you have a few decades of reading the news out of DC under your belt,you should realize that it almost impossible to overestimate the lengths that our govt will go to to avoid making a TRULY politically unpopular decision-such as clamping down on spending at a time when ts is already in tf and every nickel and dime pressure group from the hot dog vendors association and the cashmere wool growers cooperative on up to half the big banks and two thirds of Detroit are begging for a welfare check-NOT TO MENTION a good many states and localities.
So we are treading on some very thin ice.If the bailouts work,and the printing can be stopped,maybe we come out ok.
If for some reason things go wrong-and there are SO many ways for things to go wrong-then Uncle Sam's most likely course of action-judging fron history- is to keep the pedal down and try to bull his way thru by printing even more money-exactly the way you try to keep moving on a snowy road,when you know that if you stop you are NOT going to get going again,and that if you DON'T keep going,you are FINISHED-YOU FREEZE IN THE BlIZZARD.I really want to use some profane language to emphasize this scenario,but this IS a public forum.
Now there can be and almost certainly does exist a tipping point at which there is a loss of confidence in the dollar and every body with cash tries to bail before the amount of funny money chasing the world's supply of resources ranging from crude oil to farm land to next years corn crop renders thier cash worth maybe a couple of percent less every month.
If we hit that tipping point-and nobody can say exactly where it lies-
Every body will be trying to buy hard goods.Nobody will renew a t-bill unless the interest rate is maybe fifteen percent or even worse..Why do you think the Chinese are buying iron ore,scrap metal,and oil as fast as they can unload the stuff?-meaning both the dollars AND the metal and oil.Does anybody really expect oil and iron to get cheaper over the next few years-? Barring the possibility of a crash so hard there IS no recovery?
Now one beautiful thing about inflating a currency,from the govt pov,is that the people who are first in line to get the handouts are well organized and able to show thier gratitude at the polls and at the fund raisers.Most of them,when they are hard working auto workers for instance, will never realize that IF the currency becomes worthless that THIER handout contributed to the problem.
The second beautiful thing about inflating a currency is that the effects feel very good in the short term,like getting drunk.The biggest difference is that if YOU drink tonight,tomorrow YOU suffer the hangover.When a currency is inflated,the hangover is spread out over every body who is holding it or using it-all the way down to your kids with a few bucks in a savings account BUT the high is enjoyed by the recievers of the hand out in proportion to the size of thier helping and thier proximity to the source-the govt.The fact that the average voter is financially and economically illiterate means that he can not make the connection between his persistent headache and govt spending,meaning in turn that he may even vote for the folks who are destroying the value of any dollars he has due to him,such as the cash value of an insurance policy,or the monthly payment from the sale of his house if he finances the buyer-or a pension check that does not increase as fast as inflation.
The third beautiful but closely related thing about inflating the money is that the hangover is delayed,sort of like an incipient liver problem,but probably not as long.But long enough that if you really screw it up,you may already be out of office and can blame it on the opposition.
A fourth beautiful thing(always from the soverign govt pov of course) is that if you pull it off successfully-meaning that you do it but manage to keep from losing control altogether-you wipe out your older obligations to the extent that you inflate.
A fifth kinda cute feature is that everybody finds themselves in a defacto higher tax bracket unless there is previous legislation in place to index taxes.This of course allows the govt to make at least a little progress towards a balanced budget w/o raising taxes. because after all we don't WANT this scenario to really play out,do we?
As far as things that can go wrong are concerned,any regular here can probably think of a dozen.A cocaine submarine loaded with artillery shells and rammed into a super tanker.A repeat of the WWI flu epidemic.A revolution in some powder keg locality in the oil and sand world.An assination of some key leader in a hot spot.An unexpectedly fast decline rate in the super giants.Demand destruction will at some point become irrevelant to shortages as we simply have to have a certain amount of oil to maintain the industrial,farm,and security infrastructures.Any half dozen really tough and determined men who have read a Spetsnaz guerilla warfare manual or two could take out a middle sized city in this country with very little in the way of finance or technical training,and they wouldn't need anything you can't buy at Home Depot and Walmart.( So far as I can see the only we reason we haven't been brought to our knees by infiltrated terrorists is that nobody is really trying to,with the exception of maybe a few nuts who can't keep secrets very well..)
Now just TRY to remove yourself from any assumptions you may have made about the stability of our financial system,and look at them objectively from a good distance away.Put them on a beam balance and on the other end put your frustrations with the shortsighted ham handed actions( mostly inaction really) of our leaders visavis peak oil,aids,poverty,crime and drugs or whatever disturbs you the most-climate change,redneck republicans, or Hillary's resurrected take over of the health care system.Now think hard about how much confidence you have in the direction that balance will move.
Ps Lots of financial types have long thought that we were already past the point of no return(the tipping point) even before the current crisis arrived.
If I were getting paid to do this I could take the time to polish it up a little.
Remember I'm just a crabby old farmer.But you just might want to think about this seriously anyway.
Good thoughts Mac. I bet you remember well the inflation back in the late 70's. Hard to believe President Ford's "WIN" (Whip Inflation Now) buttons didn't do the job, eh?
Though I do worry about the grief such inflation will deleiver to so many I can actually look forward to it. At 58 yo I've acquired most of the big tickets items. Heading towards retirement I can make very good use of 12% CD's. Fortunately for me when we had those high inflation rates when I was raking in 10% - 20% yearly salary increases in the oil patch. Unless folks have lived with 16% prime rates I don't think they can truly appreciate the personal toll. Yeah...great way to reduce the value of our debt repayments but it comes with a great deal of local pain also.
Good article about money from a crabby old farmer, impressive and a better understanding than some bankers I met this morning!
The 12% CDs are good if you can buy them at the top of the inflation cycle since not only a good return but an increasing asset value. Of course if you can't time it right while inflation is increasing you have an asset that is decreasing in value:-(
The whole point of allowing inflation is that the politicians can bribe the voteriat with their own money whilst putting off and diminishing the repayments. What is that US saying, don't tax me, don't tax you, tax the man behind the tree??
Good points Tony. At 58 yo most of my savings are in fixed income so timing isn't so much a choice. Sitting back watching the gov't take actions which will likely start running those returns up does bring a smile to my face. But only as long as I don't think what it will do to my 9 yo daughter's future. And I don't think "bribe" is too harsh a term either.
Whenever I hear about crime in Detroit, I can't help but remember the Kentucky Fried Movie:
Take Him to Detroit"
You may have forgotten that the Kentucky Fried Movie also solved the oil crisis in the opening few minutes as well - Honest it did :)
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/1...