123 comments on DrumBeat: June 17, 2009
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Bugger - it was 20 years away when I was a lad. I'm not likely to see it now unless I live to 145 :)
well, if you're gonna get all 'Top40-philosophy' on us, I just heard my HighSchool Yearbook quote on the radio the other day..
"So often times it happens, that we live our lives in chains;
And never even know we have the key" Eagles, Already Gone
Dear God, I hope that didn't sound like 'The Key to solving fusion', cuz it wern't. I'm reading the 'Crikey' article, which runs right along my mental mode, getting to some basic cultural assumptions, in this case..
.. as an explanation for why 'power' never grabs excitedly onto Climate Change mitigation strategies that don't include MORE extraction.. like the PPL argument for the 'Realistic' investment in more CLEAN COAL.
Stoneheads!
I think 'Green Energy' should be audaciously renamed "FREE FUEL Technologies", since it'll be harder to put a negative cast on FREE than on Green, which already has Nausea, Envy, Decay and Nature in General- and the US Dollar as part of it's heavily mixed set of denotations.. but it is accurate to call it FREE FUEL, just that it is only available after the investment in often pricey or inconvenient collecting equipment.
Bob
"CLEAN COAL: If they buy that one, they'll buy ANYTHING!"
As a rather long bumper sticker:
Maybe better as a subliminal message on every TV channel on the planet, running 24/7. Radio, too, I suppose.
And to stay with the theme:
Running on - running on empty
Running on - running blind
Running on - running into the sun
But Im running behind
Running on Empty - J. Browne
Cheers
Okay. One for the 'Great Unknown Paradigm Top 40'
In the space between our cities;
A storm is slowly forming;
Something eating up our days;
I feel it every morning;
Our elements are burnt out;
Our beasts have been mistreated;
I tell you it's the only way;
We'll get this road completed.
From 'Destination' The Church
The fusion problem has been solved by nature... Take a peek outside and look at that big, bright light shining down on everything.
The problem is energy extraction from this fusion 'source'. Fusion might be 200 years away, but solar is today.
Solar was yesterday. And that is what you are burning in your gas tank today. But that is modified solar energy, cooked for about 100 million years in the bowels of the earth. However.... the type that is hitting the ground right now is a little hard to pour into your gas tank.
Ron P.
Objection, Argumentative. False Dichotomy.
Solar was yesterday, AND it is today, and will be tomorrow. (Some rain is predicted for Friday, however)
The problem is that you need to upgrade your tank, like these guys did.
http://www.sierraclub.org/wecandoit/home/electric_cars.asp
What's in YOUR tank?
If it is practical and affordable they will build it, millions will buy it and the world will convert to an all electric powered transportation fleet.
But they are not building it, except for a miniscule number. Ditto for folks buying it. Why?
But hey, this is a grand opportunity. These folks have a limited driving radius because they must return home to charge their batteries. Open the first automobile charging station. Then turn it into a chain. Become the Ray Kroc of charging stations. And those big 18 wheeler battery powered trucks, man you could make a mint off them. All you need is about 10 acres of solar panels and.....
Ron P.
Why? Folks get inundated with misinformation, like your comment about how 'Hard' it is to put anything else in your tank.. a partyline you persist with even after the clear testimonial from two families who show that it's not hard, in fact their maintenance for these cars has dropped to next to nothing, they never fill up at gas stations, and it sounds like they don't even NEED them in their successful transition to EV commuting.
So WHY do I have to find an Electric-TractorTrailer solution here in order to validate this argument?
Oh, right. Because YOU are here for the argument.. not to look at working solutions that can be promoted and shared. IS that why you're here, Ron?
.. and while it's said more than often enough that the 'Limited Driving Radius' actually corresponds to the ACTUAL distances that vast numbers of commuters already drive on a daily basis.. wouldn't it also be a limitation that would actually serve the connected goal of having people resituate themselves relative to their jobs and communities such that the travel distances shrink and help to reduce our overall daily energy demands to be more in line with a workable model for our society.. or do you happen to endorse the 'need' to commute 50 to 100 miles that people have grown accustomed to?
Bob
Hey bob, I was only joking. I never argue with solar-rollers. Lighten up. Read this, it will brighten your day. It will let a little sunshine in. How ironic is that?
SendOilPlease has already posted the link but here it is again just in case you missed it. I copied and pasted it into Word, enlarged the type to 14 points, and that made it a lot easier to read.
ClubOrlov: Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation
Ron P.
It's also at EB, if you find their formatting easier on the eyes.
Firefox helps a lot with accessibility. You can nuke page styles, and make it display in plain vanilla black text on a white background. It's also much easier to change the font size in Firefox than in IE.
Oh, you got me, Ron. (One more rant already went out.. I must have been ready to go this morning!)
I do agree that Population will crash with Oil.. In fact, I expect they are simply direct functions of one-another.
But I have to disagree with one thing.. You do too argue, you'll argue with ANYONE! I've tried to steer clear, usually, but today, you got me!
After the Space Solar thread a couple days back, I think I've been prime for a couple shrieks..
Best,
Bob
Almost true, but not quite. My wife often tells me that I would argue with a sign board. But she was exaggerating. I do not argue with sign boards nor with people who profess stupid ideas like eternal torture for bad folks, creationism or Space Solar power beamed down to earth.
You will notice I did not have a single post on that thread. Oh I typed one up, almost a whole page long. Then I said to myself; "This is stupid! I will not argue with people who believe in such a very stupid idea! So I deleted my post and read no more of the thread. Left if alone completely.
So you see I do have my limits. Some things are just too absurd for me to waste my time on.
Ron P.
Argument
Well, ok.. but what if that means you miss your seat on the Singularity?
There will be no Singularity. The intelligence explosion will come to a screeching halt as the economy collapses.
I used to read with amusement the ideas about tiny robots, or nanobots, making billions of clones of themselves, then curing all the world's resource problems by building complex hydrocarbon molecules as if atoms were like tiny lego blocks that simply needed to be stuck together. Then the cryogenic folks got in on the scam. They proposed that these nanobots could be pumped into the bodies of the frozen dead and bringing them back to life.
But there comes a time when one must stop being amused at the rantings of naive science fiction fans. Pie in the sky just is not coming. Neither is pie from space.
Ron P.
Not pie from space, but wouldn't a rogue comet, asteroid, or meteorite from space visiting this third rock be the ultimate Black Swan.
It'll fix a bunch of overshoot problems, but...
Pete
Somebody here has said that the greatest thing about enjoying science fiction is learning to RECOGNIZE scifi.
I used to be a cornucopian myself until I realized that while we as scientists might save the world in the lab,we were all doomed to die in a hundred million car pileup,figuratively speaking, on our way to work tomorrow morning.
I used to suck down all the little research news blurbs in all the papers and magazines I read btn-before the net-like a drunk with a bottle he's afraid he will have to share.The exponential explosion of knowledge would take care of everything!
But it hasn't worked that way.I can't remember a single major discovery or tech breakthrough made by an individual in my lifetime.The individual researcher used to be the norm,as evidenced by the names of so many laws of science.
I suppose we are well up on the curve of all that we can accomplish given our brainpower limitations versus all that might be physically possible,meaning that real breakthroughs will be less and less frequent,even with more and more researchers.You find the big oil fields first and easiest,and the smaller and the tougher ones later and later,even with more and more exploration.The giants and supergiants- and the "easy" scientific discoveries- were made early.
I am NOT suggesting that scientific and engineering progress will come to a halt but rather suggesting that the growth rate from here on out is going to be much less dramatic than most people expect.
Darwinian,
We all owe you a big one for the work on the link to
Orlov.
I have yet to see any plan outlined that will prevent a global population collapse that is consistent with the realities of 21 century agriculture,unless it posits industrial bau on a fairly large scale.
If the big energy crunch materializes on schedule -meaning anytime w/i our life time,there is simply no realistic way to avoid a global population collapse.The various sustainable ag movements are way too little too late to save anyone not directly and wholeheartedly involved.
I hold out some hope that We here in the USA and perhaps a few other countries can survive more or less politically intact by means of severe rationing and the implementation of a war footing economic transition.
If we are able to do it,we will have to go from cars to bikes and streetcars and from turf and surf to the occasional chicken drumstick on special occasions over a period of ten years(?swag as to time frame) or so.
No, you owe SendOilPlease for the link. He posted it originally. I just thought it so good that I just had to post it again. But thanks anyway.
As for population control, or preventing population collapse, I can only quote Orlov:
I believe, and this is simply my opinion, that we truly have virtually no control over anything that deals with or concerns the world population. We poke at it here and there and go away feeling that we have made some accomplishment. But in the grand scheme of things we have done virtually nothing. We are but observers.
Well hell, I believe I have said that before haven't I?
Ron P.
I would presume that in the long term, world population will decline a lot and US population at least some. However, I do not presume to know the exact pathway or time scale when this will all take place, or the levels that global and US populations will decline to, or what mechanisms will bring this about. I do suspect that a lot of it will not be pretty or pleasant. I do know that eventually, that population figure will not include me.
Ron,on population as on global warming - if we try we might succeed.If we don't try we are in for a massive die-off.We might as well try.
Try doing WHAT? From the Orlov link above:
Do you not realize that if you do succeed in preventing a massive die-off today that the die-off will only be much more severe later on? Do you not realize that you would have increased the death and misery considerably?
To believe that we can go on, and on, and on, with this business as usual is just another state of denial. We deeply wish that this near state of paradise could go on forever. But we are deep into overshoot. We have multiplied our numbers to several times what the earth can support, long term. We are raping the earth but most people wish to think that this raping rapture can go on forever. So you say: "why not do what we can to keep things going as they are?" Well because it is the worst thing you could possibly do. Also from Orlov:
Ron P.
Ron: Nothing can be done.
Ron: Think I'll post about it hither and thither!
Ron: Post, post, post.
Others: We can and should do something about it or at least try!
Ron: You are doomed. You will fail. Do nothing.
Others: Then what the hell are you doing here?
Ron: I just like telling people they're idiots.
Others: Why?
Ron: Well, a body's got to do something, doesn't it?
Others: Then why not do something about it or at least try?
Ron: You are doomed. You will fail. Do nothing.
Others: But.....
Who's on first?
Cheers
A real whopper. I have never told anyone on this list that they were idiots.
Another whopper! I have urged everyone from day one to take action, action that will improve their chances of being among the survivors. Read the Orlov link. He gives the same message.
And CCPO please do not put words in my mouth again! If you had followed my post in the three and one half years I have been on this list you would know full well that you have misrepresented my position. I have urged action, action and more action from day one.
I urge action to save yourself, and save your family members, but not to waste your precious time and resources trying to save the whole damn world.
Again, please read the Orlov link above. His position is exactly the same as mine.
Ron P.
Taking the piss, Ron. I'd have included the emoticon, but I thought it unnecessary considering the format, etc.
I'll be more careful in the future, you humorless sob!
;) (<---- indication of humor.)
Cheers
CCPO you know damn well you were not trying to be funny, you were only trying to make me look like a fool who advocates that everyone give up and do nothing. That has never been my position.
I have long advocated that everyone take action to enhance their chances of being among the survivors. What I was doing with this thread was trying to drive home the message that it is dangerous to try to save the whole world while neglecting one's one survival chances.
Ron P.
I was thinking along these lines the other day:
Its actually a little disheartening to think about Jevons Paradox because when you do, you realize its all around us. And its based on Human Nature and rational behavior.
The modern car succeeded in dominating our culture and consuming all our oil principly because it is so efficient. If the early attempts at motoring created cars that required 5 gallons of fuel to travel 1 mile the idea would never have taken off. People would have continued to live on a local scale.
We only use machines and burn fuel because they are so efficient.
Some creations are not efficient enough to stay "feasible" Concorde is a perfect example of this. Imagine how awful it would have been if Concorde had been more efficient? If concorde had burned the same amount of fuel per mile as a regular airplane (or less) the resulting energy consumption would have been huge. The demand for air travel would have soared (slight pun intended). Air traffic would be much higher and the amount of fuel burned would be higher too.
Another mindbender is the steam engine. Its first application was to pump water out of coal mines to help them extract more coal from deeper mines. if the steam engine had consumed more coal than it helped extract - well you can imagine things would have been quite different.
So if the upslope looked like that (using more and more machines with ever increasing efficiency) - its possible to see the downslope as being the opposite. The efficiency of the machines may decrease but we will use much less energy.
I think a solar panel is only about 13% efficient, its very expensive, so it tends to encourage the user to reduce total consumption as much as possible (instead of just buying a massive - expensive array).
Sometimes I think of the economic failure of Concorde as the first sign of our impending collapse - a sign that technology does not keep making everything move faster and faster. A sign of physical limits.
Yet today we see Gov Bill Richardson breaking ground on the new "spaceport" in New Mexico hoping to lure money to the state for Space-Tourism. The Concorde of the new millenium.
""We only use machines and burn fuel because they are so efficient.""
Sorry, but no. We use machines and burn fuel, because in a very fundamental sense, oil, for the last 100 years, has been basically free to the sheeple in the U.S.
Only now, are we starting to see the true cost we will pay for the future energy we "burn". And the sad fact is, most will not even live long enough to see that either.
'They' could have saved the entire $45,000 by not having a car at all.
Okay, the car 'pays for itself' ... from an energy standpoint? Why just look at the car?
How about the car factory (factories)? How about Toyota, itself. It is hardly likely that Toyota could survive as a business if it had to run itself on solar panels. The current increase in oil prices from 1998 onward has put the price squeeze on Toyota, just like all the other companies.
What about the roads and highways the occasional solar cars use? What about the sprawl infrastrucure? Would any of that be built for the two or three electric cars that are here and there? Wasn't all of thist made to be thrown away in a few years, anyway?
How about transporting the cars, the car parts, the car accessories, from all over the world? Is this also free? Isn't this a massively complex system in which the one electric car here and the other electric car there don't even count as a rounding error? Take them away and what do you have?
A massive worldwide fleet of gas guzzlers. Where are these going to disappear to? Who or what will convert them to 'electric'? There are 800 million autos in the world and the short answer is nobody. Well ... a few shade- tree mechanics. We have cast our lot on the gasoline engine and the heavy, convenience laden personal transport device. We are stuck with it. It is our albatross. It will be the undoing of us.
Unless Santa comes down a chimney with another 2-3 trillion barrels of oil to leave under the tree ... that would undo us, too.
That's an easy rant, Steve.
These people have taken a large step away from where most commuters have been.. even if they are still 'driving to work', and using the rest of that infrastructure. Taking it to extreme examples like expecting the few current Solar EV's out there try to justify the whole highway/auto infrastructure is a cop-out. It's what we have, and the way to move away from it is going to be in rational, but difficult steps. These people now have both power for their homes and their cars, power and vehicles that stand a chance of remaining operational as other options fall apart.. (Pickups and a Rav4 should be alright on many dirt roads too, BTW, not to mention E-bikes.. but we aren't even there yet.)
Well, not you, anyway. But many others are doing it. Enough? Of course not.. but it's one BB, it doesn't have to promise the conversion of any 800million vehicles.
But it's a tool, and these guys are showing that it's simple, versatile, durable and it works.
It's not, it's another dead end. It's just more of the same, that we can 'have it all' without paying anything. It's a lie, really.
It's the casino mentality, the hype. Yes, every once in awhile someone makes a million in foreign exchange or in swaps. Unless someone wins every now and again, nobody goes into the casino and it closes. Isn't it time to close the damned casino?
There will never be a chance at a solution to this without ruthless and unflinching honesty. That's not a rant, that's a fact. No lies, no spam, no casinos. No false hopes just work and sacrifice. That's the word that is alaway missing ... sacrifice.
The costs of the machines are unsupportable. It's them or us.
Somewhat agree with Steve --
A friend of mine was boasting that her friend was able to drive a "biodiesel" car from California to Washington using waste grease from restaurants. Then I asked her how many restaurants would need for the 200 Million cars in the US -- you see the picture.
1 or 2 cases like this makes a good sound bite but it's hardly changed the status quo.
Sure, we might get "somewhere someday" -- but I am not holding my breath on it.
'The Machines, It's them or us'
That's not 'Ruthless Honesty'.. it's just as 'SciFi' as that Space-Solar-Power, in the other direction, but as extreme, and as unperceptive. We will continue using wheels, tools and metals. There will be paths and roads and heavy stuff to carry.
'200 Million Cars' - That's your choice to extrapolate it into the current model, but over and over, I've said it's not mine. I do believe we need to find tools that work without FF.. even if they derive FROM FF-wrought materials.. if the 'Hard work and Sacrifice' that's required to TRY to dig out of this pit is going to happen.. it will take steps along the way. Steve is using a computer to share his ideas of going in a new direction.. that's EXACTLY the same thing, isn't it? It doesn't mean he is claiming the whole world must now have computers forever, does it? No, it's a tool for reaching people on every continent of the planet within minutes.. and trying to get some clear thinking going on all this.
But with 'It's them or us'.. I don't know if he's running more Honesty or Brutality in his message.
In the meantime, when the sun comes up, those Green and Brown solar panels will start tossing electrons without being asked or told.. and they'll do it for decades.
the farmers are all up in arms because the fire marshall is proposing that biodiesel pumps be inspected and the inspection recorded everyday.
some cursory research shows that biodiesel is less of a fire hazard per se than petroleum diesel, but is more likely to cause a leak because the biodiesel will degrade hoses and fittings.
Query: How many people (N) have been injured/killed by a DIY bio-diesel setup?
If N = none, then FM has too much time on his hands/The Man is on the prowl;
If N = a few, then daily inspections = first If.
If N = some, then maybe FM has a point.
Awaiting data input.
Cheers
i dont have any data on deaths. the fire marshall is always concerned with flamable materials. here is a fact to consider: flamable materials can kill.
i think the farmers are opposed to anything that can be remotely considered a critisism of bio-anything.
T. Boone Pickens is out there again taling about oil... http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2009/06/16/fortune.bg.061609.tboone.c... (video warning)
According to him, 2/3 of America's trade deficit is from foreign oil, and last year we spent $450 BILLION to foreign coutries for oil consumed in America.
Based on this alone the government would be wise to find domestic sources of transportation. We can either can spend $450 BILLION per year in technology or infrastructure to develop battery powered 18 wheelers running on solar power OR toss it overseas to places like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela... Your choice.
It's just that I think EIGHTEEN is the wrong number..
Here's a grid-powered 192 wheeler.. (the green one.. counted, best I could)
http://www.rail-be.net/Accessoires/Webs_Files/Alan.htm
as I said up above..
'We live our lives in chains, and never even know we have the key..'
Al- went to Poland earlier this month, as well as Germany and the Netherlands. The one thing I noticed, especially with respect to the big cities is that they really have their stuff together with electrified rail...
Polish Connection
This was especially true with Krakow, where I spent quite a bit of time. Trams are well distributed (walkable to), frequent (only 10 minutes between them) and cheap ($2/day will get you anywhere, and a $60 yearly pass is also available). Because of this environment, and the use of bike lanes, you can eaily get by without a car. Also, many of the retail stores are small mom-and-pop shops distributed around the city... The advantage of course is not having to go halfway across town to the supermarket, when the corner store is just down the block. Overall, I am impressed with the way Europe has built their cities to EXCLUDE the use of cars vs. America's layout that REQUIRES them.
I think you'll find european cities were built before the car, not to exclude it.
Plus most organically grew from collections of separate towns joining up.
Think of it as evolution vs central planning.
Hello Geckolizard,
Your quote: "Overall, I am impressed with the way Europe has built their cities to EXCLUDE the use of cars vs. America's layout that REQUIRES them."
Well stated! IMO, just another validation point for Duncan's Olduvai Re-equalization whereby the USA can expect a fast BOE/C decline as FFs head towards Unobtainium. Yep, it is highly frustrating to me that our national leadership has not fully embraced Alan Drake's standard gauge RR & TOD 'spine & limbs' buildout ideas, plus the 'ribcage' of narrow gauge SpiderWebRiding.
Recall that Chicago had both back in the early 1900s: it had a large surface rail network and urban trolley [RR & TOD] plus the 60 miles of the hand-dug urban underground narrow gauge network:
http://users.ameritech.net/chicagotunnel/tunnel1.html
You would think USA's PTB would be desperate by now to do whatever is required to try and SLOW a fast postPeak BOE/C decline; begin a move towards Optimal Overshoot Decline by widespread Kunstlerization and lots of other mitigation strategies.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"Shale gas puts Alaska line in doubt, Pickens says"
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN1738847820090617?rpc=44
t-boone: “I don't think that pipeline gets built right now," he said. "I don't think the pipeline will be built for 10 to 15 years."
wondering what time frame t-boone had in mind ?
A better choice. $250 billion to electrify, double track, grade separate (largely) and create rail over rail bridges when lines cross.
Good enough for 83% or so of today's truck traffic.
Then spend another $250 billion on 14,000 miles of triple track, 3rd track for pax at 100 to 125 mph and and express freight at 90 to 100 mph.
Get some of the money by reducing maintenance on Interstate highways.
Best Hopes for Better Choices,
Alan
Alan,
I always read your comments with great interest as you have a balanced pov regarding the possible versus the impossible or politically undoable.
I think a renewed emphasis on rail is a damn good idea myself,but I've also been thinking about just how much UNNECESSARY transportation we could cut w/o gutting the economy-I'm talking cuts that might actually create more jobs thru saving on energy,road maintainence,and so forth than are lost by truck drivers,etc.
I find it hard to believe that we need to haul our beer hundreds of miles when it could be brewed locally using waste heat from existing businesses for instance.Locally brewed beer could easily be bottled in glass bottles reusable hundreds of times if the beer is consumed near the bottling plant.
A driver's job lost would be a brewer's job gained most likely,as a local brewery would use more manpower per barrell than a far off automated beer factory.
The cardboard boxes used to ship apples across the country could be replaced with the wooden boxes used by my parents and grandparents-and STILL IN USE by our regular small local customers who bring them back like deposit bottles.Some of ours are at least sixty years old as evidenced by the logos of the original owners,and they are probably used at least four times per year each.
The cardboard boxes are reused maybe three or four times at most on average because they either fall apart and/or it costs too much to ship them empty for long distances.
A lot of carpooling and other fuel saving strategies would work a lot better if the law regulating auto insurance and the practices of the insurance industry were to be overhauled.I personally know at least five or six people who would buy a very economical car to commute and only use thier thirsty pickup trucks for business purposes if it didn't cost so much to insure the second vehicle.
It's pointless from thier pov to save twenty bucks a week on gas just to give it to thier insurance agent.
I strongly suspect that the price structure of the industry is subsidizing the one car owner at the expense of the two car owner.The discount for the second car is not so far as I can see nearly big enough,given the fact that one or the other vehicles is parked most of the time.If the rate needs to be so high to cover use by spouses,kids,etc,there could be a fee per driver added.
A good samaritian law could also ease the fears of lawsuits that keep people from carpooling in some instances.At least two guys I know are very reluctant to share rides regularly for fear of legal entanglements if there is an accident.
I'm sure others here can think of more possibilities along these lines.
And next, the reason there aren't already millions of these out there if they work so well?
It MIGHT be because the Market isn't actually any good at making predictive moves, but only reactive ones. It MIGHT be that they WANT to sell cars that wear out (a consciously, openly devised scheme of 'planned obsolescence' from the 1930's, at least. "The term was coined in the 1950s by Brooks Stevens who suggested that new and improved products are in constant demand by consumers and that corporations can best respond by manufacturing items that don't last very long." http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/0,,sid9_gci1238871,00.html ), that you HAVE to regularly buy fuel and filters and fenders for.. no? One of the EV conversion sites stated that a certain electric motor, with it's essentially ONE moving part, was rated for about a million miles.
Why don't people go to those precious few, actually GOOD independent films, even ones that are actually funny, or exciting or inspiring.. and instead just go to the generic, trite ones that are vociferously making box-office records at the Multiplexes? You don't have to search too deep to find the answer, Ron. But I'm not helping you out with this one.
But, if you DO see one of those really great films, don't you tell your friends, because it's almost certain that they will have little chance of hearing about it through the normal, dreadful channels? Why, indeed?
Why aren't those filmmakers better funded to make more of these good films? Doesn't the MARKET See that quality products would sell, if only people knew about them? No, not really.
http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?t=1353&start=0&sid=316589e...
Fusion is the energy source of the future. . . and always will be.
Actually, it is always 20 years away, and could be used as a constant, like the speed of light. No matter what your reference point, it is always 20 years away.