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149 comments on DrumBeat: June 26, 2009
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149 comments on DrumBeat: June 26, 2009
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GAIA Host Collective
Rethinking the Value of SUV's
Crumbling infrastructure is certainly one of the foreseeable results of Peak Oil/Peak Exports, and JHK, Leanan and many others have talked about, but I am surprised at the speed at which it is happening, e.g., Michigan is planning to let some roads to back to gravel because they can't afford to keep them paved, and a Texas story follows. I suppose that it is a confluence of many events--many bridges and roads reaching, and exceeding their 50 year design life; the credit meltdown & recession and thus declining revenue; Peak Oil/Peak Exports, etc. A couple of civil engineers I have talked to said that they expect catastrophic bridge failures to become more and more common.
In any case, it occurs to me that as roads deteriorate, an investment in a solid mid-size SUV might be a good investment--as long as one is to some extent still car dependent.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/062609...
Special session may not be enough to keep Dallas-Fort Worth road projects going
I'm thinking it might be worth buying a larger car. In case I end up living in it.
A cabover camper on a pickup, or pulling a small trailer is much more comfortable than living inside your car. Also, a pickup will negotiate badly potholed or non-existent roads much better than a car.
http://www.lancecamper.com/home/index.html
Lots of other manufacturers, but you can buy used and save much money.
I don't need that much room. I also think a car or SUV is more secure than cabover or pickup.
I'm thinking of those women who ended up sleeping in their cars in a church parking lot.
I'm with Ignorant. If we stop maintaining the roads, a truck or SUV really isn't going to help much.
Hello Leanan,
Did you go into the link to see the smaller models? They are comparable to living inside your closets' space. As I recall, you have a small car: perhaps a lightweight A-frame camper/trailer?
http://www.chaletrv.com/chal_ltw.htm
Beats a tent by a long shot, and I think your car could easily pull this setup. Mini-trailers suitable for pulling behind a motorcycle are available, too:
http://www.roadmancampers.com/
Imagine if you went to your employer offering to take a big wage cut so that you don't get laid-off. Just ask if you can RV-camp in the parking lot, in your little Chalet trailer, with an extension cord running back to the building. Much more privacy than sleeping nightly under your cubicle desk, plus greater security for your employers' lot as more eyeballs on the premises 24/7 to help keep an eye on things WTSHTF.
If I owned a big company: priority #1 would be turning some of the parking lots into a RV-campground.
Nope, this is what you need. I hope they make a come back:
VW Fifth Wheel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56XL0TysIn0
Wow! I want one of those for my VW GTI.
I'm not a fan of trailers. Not least because I'd have no place to park one.
Though a friend of mine is planning to get one of those "teardrop" trailers - precisely because they can be pulled by small cars.
And falling for a fad probably. Those trailers are expensive too! BC is summer trailer town, so we see all types. For functionality, light weight and reasonable fuel impact, I would recommend a tent trailer. Plus, one can mount a small boat or canoe on top, or bicycles.
It was a fad...about 30 years ago!
Probably 50+ years ago. My grandmother had one and my grandfather built a simple wood toy-scale replicas so she could practice backing up.
Our family of five traveled across Canada in 1968 in an 8' tent trailer towed by a VW six passenger truck. It's amazing what you an do with 98 HP.
I mean the latest retro fad for these tear-drop trailers. I don't know if they are any more functional or efficient than the other options available today, but they do cost about 2x a good tent trailer. At least up here anyway.
Nearly all the older Mack dumptrucks-the kind with the stumpy sruare hoods built all thru the eighties-had only 237 horsepower and they hauled(still haul in most cases) up to fifteen tons legally and often over twenty tons if the cops weren't around.I've driven one often.
We could easily get by with twenty five horsepower cars.
I lived in a truckcamper for a few years as I traveled around doing contract work. It was fun. I could unload the camper then have the truck to drive. I always stayed in campgrounds that had electricty and showers.
I'm not sure how much of a good investment it would be. Back in the 1980s I drove to see the memorial built to Emilio Carranza, "the Lindbergh of Mexico," that's located at his crash site in Wharton State Forest, NJ. Before I found the only (still) maintained road to the site I tried one of the "forgotten" roads that was still on the map.
Not only do roads go back to gravel, but the gravel and chucks of asphalt gradually heave and shift (even without the help of vegetation). Until you see something that's gone it's hard to conceive of how bad it can go.
It's incredible how fast a lack of maintenance shows up. A Chevrolet dealer near me closed down earlier this year and the still-newish building and lots are vacant. Barely are we into summer and the yard is already splitting and sprouting with greenery. Any place there was a seam or patch in the asphalt there's weeds now. Even if an interstate or provincial highway is better constructed than a parking lot it doesn't take long for nature to do a number on the works of man, that's for sure. That and other things could create a surge of interest in smaller, fuel efficient SUVs along the lines of the old Land Rover products. 4 cylinder engines, small but robust body work, easy to care for. If it gets so bad that roads are left to go back to gravel then there won't be much need for going anywhere far will there? On the other hand the unemployed are available to scrape road beds, do erosion control projects and install and level cobble stones? ...okay, maybe not.
Leanan posted a good article the other day by Kurt Cobb, about the "Green Shoots" that he has observed--grass growing in cracks in the crumbling roads:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49292
I've been in agreement with Leanan on this for some time - here in the North East the combination of sun, rain, freeze-thaw cycles, and plant/tree roots will destroy the structure of just about everything. And far more quickly than people imagine. It certainly won't erase all trace of it, but it takes very little to render it useless. One of the mental games I play as I drive around is to try to imagine how various areas will look some time in the future, and to what uses various infrastructure will be put. The highway systems will still be useful as they've been graded and smoothed - they'll still be good for foot and muscle driven traffic for a long time. Bridges will be used until they collapse, and some may be rebuilt for foot or rail use after that.
Supposedly my small road will be paved next month, as the Township has the money in escrow from a development that went under up at the other end. I find this ridiculous as it is only some blacktop on dirt now, there are at most 12 homes on the whole two mile stretch, and it doesn't go anywhere useful. What a waste.
I was thinking of an appropriate vehicle for use as the roads deteriorate. A mid-90's Jeep Wrangler with a 4cyl might be useful for a while - but if they pave the road now I'll just keep what I've got running. There's a Haflinger pony in the paddock and surrey in the barn - for as long as we can manage to feed her and hold on to the property anyway.
I must admit to having a somewhat perverse desire to see roads around me to continue crumbling just to watch the multitude of a-holes with their low riders buzzing around at 20 mph over the posted speed finally get their teeth rattled out of their skulls. After witnessing how these idiots drive I can only imagine that they are paying a fortune for replacement of suspension components and that they are destined for serious back problems in the not too distant future.
I'll just keep plodding on by in my trusty Subaru and give a friendly wave as I always do...
Dirt Roads = Fewer People = More Wildlife :)
In basic form, the Niva has a carbureted 1.6-litre overhead cam four-cylinder petrol engine producing 54 kW (72 hp) and 126 N·m (93 ft·lbf), a four- or five-speed manual transmission, and full-time four-wheel drive. 28.5 mpg
Lada Niva http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lada_Niva
It works in Russia
http://www.asklyrics.com/display/Talking_Heads/(nothing_But)_Flowers_Lyrics/88880.htm
If anybody buys a survival vehicle it better not be a land rover or any other low volume exotic.The first time she breaks down,it'll cost about five times as much to fix as a Ford or Toyota-and aftermarket parts are nearly non existent now for exotics.
You will probably be able to get salvage parts if not new for popular trucks for many years even if tshtf.Fuel will probably be the bigger problem.
small block chevy with points and a carb.
Avoid recent model Jeeps, too. Only 13 hours to build each one and some of the lowest Initial Quality Ratings in the business:
http://www.cars.com/go/crp/research.jsp?section=jdpower&makeid=23&modeli...
Ok crew, stop and think about this thread for a second. It seems all the vehicle suggestions are road vehicles, doesn't that appear along the lines of BAU thinking or "in the box"?
As we ponder the doom-scope, what are the fair assumptions;
- roads will be in all states of disrepair
- where catastrophic failure makes the section of road impassible, a diversion will be created through a field or woods. See this all the time in back roads.
- bridges may be decrepit, or worse taken over by gangs for tolls
- dirt roads will be more prevalent, (actually liked this in St. Augustine around the beaches), or a bitumen surface may be applied
- Getting there and back will be more important than time or speed
How about an ATV? But my choice is the Argo off-road amphibious vehicle. These things can go places where a four-wheeler can't (including plowing down tag alder or willow), carries four people plus some cargo, and can be used as a slow speed boat. They do have an attachment for a small outboard. The motor is an air-cooled Techumsee (sp?) or B&S, but if required any type could be bolted in.
http://www.argoatv.com/recreational/recHome.aspx
Oh, and low wear and tear on roads and pathways...
I experienced lack of highway maintenance first hand during the oil price collapse after 1985. I was living in Louisiana and drove LA-1 south of Shreveport to work. LA's revenue at the time was partly from oil and the state budget had to be cut. Many roads like LA-1 did not get resurfaced, but the top layer of asphalt was ground off in preparation for the eventual resurfacing that ended up being a couple of years away. Successive layers of asphalt peeled off and my windshield constantly got hit by flying asphalt. Needless to say that the road surface was very rough and potholed. Fortunately I-49, which paralleled the old road, was completed a few years later.
Westexas -
It doesn't even have to be a large SUV to have good off-road capability. An old VW Beetle set up as a 'Baja Bug' with raised reinforced suspension and huge tires, and upward pointing exhaust would do the trick nicely (though comfort might be an issue for many people). Ditto for dune buggies. Trouble is: Beetles (real ones, not the New Beetle) were once as common as stones, but these days nice ones are hard to find and are no longer cheap.
The German Army 'Kubelwagen' (bucket car) of WW II was based on the VW chassis and drive train, only weighed about 1,500 lbs, and could do anything the US Jeep could. They even had an amphibious version appropriately called the 'Schwimmwagen'.
Anyway, it's amazing how short a period of time it takes for roads and other infrastructure to deteriorate without regular maintenance. Once a certain level of neglect sets in, the process becomes almost irreversible.
My golf cart will run rings around any SUV when the going gets tough. Its like a little electric mountain goat.
Then there is the ultimate off road vehicle, but you have to have access to a supply of hay.
We came to a similar conclusion while designing the UnCrash Course. My degree is in civil engineering, so I'm spending a fair amount of time at looking at infrastructure issues right now.
A few other points about our infrastructure to consider:
Here is slide from the course that helps make the point:

It's sobering to dwell on the amount of infrastructure that will be failing in the next decade if we don't make replacing it a priority.
PNAC: "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century"
How about: "Rebuilding America's Infrastructure: Hyperinflation, Starvation and Debt Servitude for a Century"?
A proposal for selective abandonment:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/19420
Net Oil Exports Revisited (8/06)
Yes, density will be key to maintain basic services. We simply will not have the money/energy to replace all the services the incredible distances they are extended now.
I think it's likely that people will start abandoning the suburbs not just because of travel costs but also because basic services start experiencing common and severe disruptions, like water delivery to the home. Municipalities are having trouble with roads now, water and sewer pipes are next. I think it's likely we can keep electricity operating for longer, but eventually it too will experience intermittency.
I suspect quite a few people over the pond have a larger scale triage in mind - at the nation state level. Cut all external energy inputs to the most energy inefficient 5% of the global population and we immediately have an extra decade to prepare for energy transition.
Not that I expect those 5% to see it that way... :)
Yes, contraction, curtailment, triage, powerdown. These are the terms that need to be on everyone's lips for any number of reasons.
K. Sales' article above says, "The alternative? Nothing complicated: a non-growth ecnonomy. A human-scale economy. A steady-state economy."
But we are long past the point where steady state is possible or desirable. We need a to model and implement a rapidly shrinking-state economy. Are any major economists working on this now?
By "we", are you talking about North America or about China?
The Earth is much more likely to be destroyed by a shrinking global economy than by a growing economy.
It sounds like you are a firm believer in the religion of infinite growth on a limited planet, and I have learned long ago that trying to reason with religious zealots is pretty much a waste of time. If you don't think we are at least bumping up against limits (not to mention far into overshoot), perhaps you should read the threads here and in related sites more carefully.
But ok, I'll bite. How do you see the earth being destroyed by a shrinking economy? If you say that it well get us into resource wars, well, that would be war that would destroy the world, not the shrinking economy.
Presumably as a devout pro-growth zealot you will be thrilled if I wish upon you not just growth, but multiple growths all over your body.
What? You don't want growths all over your body? Then why wish it upon the earth?
West Texas,
The Swiss also made good use of a technology that just might see a revival -wood gasification.
It enables you to run a car or truck or farm tractor on wood scraps or firewood purpose cut.
The process and equipment are both relatively simple.The burner is tuned to starve the fire of oxygen so that the primary combustion product is carbon monoxide,which is cooled and filtered to remove ash and tar and then fed into the engine with a special carburetor.The carburetor is similar to a propane carburetor.Fuel economy is reputed to be about one mile per pound of dry wood in a midsize pickup truck.
Many thousands of vehicles were converted in occupied Europe but it seems that none have survived.A few minutes net search will turn up some modern examples.
Any good all around mechanic with a well equipped shop can convert a suitable vehicle using mostly salvage materials in a few days-once he has done the first one.
I'm looking for the right vehicle now-a sound old model 4x4 Chevy 3/4 ton long wheel base with a granny gear four speed and a 350 engine.Cheap.
I have settled on this particular truck for it's simplicity, durability,towing and hauling capacity,ability to navigate any thing that even looks remotely like a road,ease of finding salvage parts,and so forth.You can get any part aftermarket for such a truck overnight at the worst whereas late model truck parts are sometimes dealer only and take a week to arrive.
Fuel economy(probably 2 pounds per mile) won't matter much as we own a few acres of trees and at any rate it will not be used much if tshtf-an occasional emergency trip to town and a maybe a couple of planned hauls every month or so.Home will be the place to be when gasoline exceeds ten dollars per or is simply unavailable.
It looks as if it might take a couple of hours to prepare the wood and get her fired up and ready for a half day of use.Once fueled up,you probably can go from a cold start in less than ten minutes.
The appartus will take about half the space in the cargo box of a short bed pickup.
It's looking like that rail crash in DC may have been at least partly due to infrastructure issues. The train cars were so old they should have been replaced years ago. There was some kind of signaling problem. It looks like the operator tried to brake, but it didn't seem to work.
Now they're putting the oldest cars in the middle of the train, where they'll be protected in a crash.
Alan from Big Easy has commented frequently about the supposed longevity of light railcars.
Perhaps I missed it but has he commented on this as well?
aangel -
About a hundred years ago (well, it was actually 1966) I found myself in a summer job with the county engineering department inspecting bridges over county roads. I was the head of a team of three other engineering students, and we'd go around to the various bridges, taking measurements, noting rust damage, concrete deterioration, and also making as-built plans for bridges that the country somehow had lost the drawings of.
It was hardly interesting or demanding work, but one thing it did make me aware of was the absolutely terrible condition that many of our bridges were in. And mind you, this was way back 1966. I would hope that many of these have since been replaced with new bridges, but I strongly suspect that not all that much has been done and that the overall condition of the county's collection of bridges is probably even worse today.
As a suburban dweller outside Washington DC, it is amazing how quickly the roads near me have fallen into disrepair. My family has always joked that you needed to drive a truck to go into DC, but now they are increasingly useful all over the region.
However, I do agree with the Baja Bug idea too. In years gone by, I drove an old Escort on long-abandoned mining roads -- as long as you keep from busting the oil pan on a boulder and don't high center, you can take a car almost anyplace. As long as you have gas.
I sold my '93 Pathfinder a few years ago when it started having more problems. I ended up buying a '99 Honda CRV. (only after did I realize it only seemed to be little blue haired grannies that drove them - but I was being very pragmatic). It is still an AWD. It has a good brand name - Honda - (realible?). It also improved my milegae from 20 mpg to 30 mpg. Also it is still SUV'ish. It has the large rear compartment, which to Leanans point, I can sleep in the back and live in it if necessary. I'm thinking in a fast crash scenario, an SUV type vehicle is worth having.
I think that the true nature of the collapse we are witnessing is so overarching as to render our previous conceptions of preparation nothing more than abject folly.
The paradigm or world view that we shared prior to the onset of collapse has blocked us from making accurate calls on how it would actually unfold, instead we comforted ourselves with nonsense like walkable communities, light rail that would magically appear to meet our transportation needs, or the most ridiculous one of all, the election of a liberal democratic president who "gets it".
Throw in the acceptance of a crushing gasoline tax by an increasingly impoverished public to top it off and I rest my case.
Only if your definition of an SUV is Simple Utility Vehicle... AND you know how to fix it yourself, and by that I mean have the capability of making your own spare parts. Do you have your own forge and machine shop? I don't even want to think about maintaining computers,electronic components, power windows and such. Good luck with your SUV!
That old jeep is hardly any better off the road than a compact 4wd pickup truck which will haul three times as much and cost half as much to maintain.Also the truck is safer, faster,and infinitely more comfortable.I speak from experince as a four wheel drive owner who actually uses 4wd several times in an average month off the road in the line of work rather than play.
The ONLY THING old jeeps have going for them is a reputation earned when there were almost no other 4wd utility vehicles available.We owned a bunch of them back in the days before you could buy a cheap used Chevy S10 or Ford Ranger 4wd.
Damn few of us will live long enough to need to rebuild a vehicle in a machine shop ,as the quantity of good salvage parts available is incredible-if you choose your vehicle wisely.
At any rate,there will be lots of independent small shops around.Surviving machinist will have to work just like every body else.
Something most people don't realize-modern vehicles just don't wear out-they break down and don't get fixed.Only the parts exposed to rust and dirt are LIKELY to fail.
Almost any stickshift truck that is well cared for will last over two hundred thousand miles,and when it finally needs a head gasket,you usually find that the engine is showing no visible wear.
The gasket set is apt to be under 200 bucks but the labor to install is likely over a thousand.
Cars are junked because the cost of repairs are out of line with the cash value of older cars,not because they are worn out.