78 comments on Fibber McGee, Molly, and Your Energy Future
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78 comments on Fibber McGee, Molly, and Your Energy Future
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I used to go back and forth on this, but I am more of the opinion that rationing will end up happening. I used to think that we would ration by price, but I think there will be such an outcry over people being unable to afford $10 (or pick a number) gasoline that simply rationing quantities will be viewed as more equitable. Then again, we ration all kinds of things by price now, including health care.
I also view nationalization of the oil companies as something that will be discussed ever more seriously. I think oil company profits will sky-rocket with fossil fuel prices (as they did after gasoline shot up, and when oil shot up) and that is not going to sit well with people who are being bled dry. The first steps, in my opinion, will be ever more punitive taxation, but when governments learn that this only causes supplies to dry up ever faster, the nationalization option will become a subject of serious debate.
I have a hard time seeing nationalization ever happening. The corporate lobbyists have far too much influence. Witness the way the climate bills got watered down and altered to suit the needs of various constituencies. And the same thing will happen with health care reform. Although it was interesting to see how the auto companies seem to have completely lost favor in Washington, whereas Wall St could more or less write the terms and conditions for their own bailouts.
The problem with rationing is how do you decide who gets how much, and how do you prevent people from gaming the system? You might have an elderly person who never drives any more - the kids would be fighting over the ration stamps. You might know someone who has a farm and has an increased allotment, and hence you might find people getting extra from there. You might know someone who has a company that delivers stuff - would that company get an increased allotment? There are all kinds of scenarios, and if too much cheating is perceived to exist, then the credibility of the whole thing is shot.
Last year we already saw gas thefts when gas hit 5$/gallon - primarily larger trucks and SUVs as these have larger tanks and hence more to steal.
True, the climate bills got watered down, but the masses are not screaming for justice over climate change. When gas gets to be very expensive, politicians are going to be under a lot more pressure from constituents to act.
You will never prevent people from gaming the system. People game all the systems we have in place now. Under rationing, there will certainly be a black market.
The corporate lobbyists could be out in front to introduce rationing, but to make sure their interests are served first, over and above the lesser citizens needs.
I agree with you Robert -- Nationalization of the major public oils will likely become a serious topic. I'm not sure if it will be huge prices or real shortages that drive it to the forefront though. If we want to offer ideas in this thread it would be beneficial for folks to define exactly what they mean. “Nationalization” it self is at best ambiguous and at worst meaningless. I think any practical (and achievable) response to the worst effects of PO will require some form of significant involvement of the gov’t in the free market system IMO. But I doubt taking ownership of the companies would ever be a serious. olks upset about pump prices might fantasize about such possibilities but it’s good to remember that ExxonMobil isn’t owned by Mr. XOM. It’s owned by the American people. Destroying trillions of $’s of the retirement accounts of citizenship, including many union members won’t happen IMO.
But I do believe there has to be some sort of coordinated efforts between the private sector and the gov’t. I can’t see any real progress on any front given the volatility we’ve seen in the market. A few months ago low oil prices killed much of the incentives for alternatives. Even with prices climbing I doubt much capital will be funneled that way without some certainty that those prices will stay elevated for many years. I personally haven’t been able to come up with any model that is politically doable. Maybe some of the clever folks here have some ideas worth sharing
Perhaps by the time we get to that point - and that's only the "we" that is hashing it out on a forum like this - it will be too late and the decisions will already have been made.
Frankly, I can't imagine they have not already been made. Which sends me back to the current economic collapse. The money seems to be going directly to Wall Street, yet over the past few quarters it's been the biggest energy companies cashing out with record profits.
"Nationalizing the oils" is an ugly concept. OK if you nationalize a company where all of the assets and liabilities are within the nation. Not OK where we are talking about Iraq and other countries.
Nationalize our footprint fine. Dump our trash on others? No way. Of course, that is why we must "support the troops". What heroes.
cfm in Gray, ME
The general rules of realpolitik are:
(1) If the public wants something but the rulers don't, then the bosses pretend to do it. If the rulers want something but the public don't, then the bosses pretend not to do it (usually while everyone's on hols in August). In either case the propaganda gets tuned up sometime in advance.
(2) Nationalise the unprofitable, privatise the profitable.
(Though in this case other considerations could overrule this.)
(3) The propaganda is all about protecting society and especially the ordinary and vulnerable. The reality is about retaining privilege to the already privileged.
If there is rationing, I am going to make sure I get my share and turn around and resell it for an income. It is the form of cap-and-trade for individuals.
It would be easier if the Gov issued gas consumption rights coupons. This would be easier to trade than gas cans that have to be hauled around.