 | Risk Assessments: Playing the "What If?" Game | The Oil Drum | Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan |  |
80 comments on DrumBeat: July 3, 2009
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80 comments on DrumBeat: July 3, 2009
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Exactly. Especially for Leap2020. I think they confine their predictions to 6 months to a year out. They've been predicting imminent collapse for years now. Eventually, they'll be right.
I do think they are right on the fundamentals (aside from a certain euro-centrism), but probably not on the timing. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and all that.
Not only that, but the system has a vested interest in maintaining itself and trying to prevent collapse. There may be many bad side effects to the actions (bailouts, etc), but it does have the effect of kicking the can down the road a bit..
EricY - "There may be many bad side effects to the actions (bailouts, etc), but it does have the effect of kicking the can down the road a bit.."
I very much disagree that the can has been kicked at all. Not only are things not staying static but they are worse in many respects,e.g., layoffs continue at a high rate and show no sign of even leveling off.
And, consider "the bad side effects: I'd refer to them as the disasterous side effects. The US is going to go down in flames.
I wish I had more time but I have to get back to the garden.
Todd
In thinking about the future, I am wondering if anyone would care to predict what the Christmas buying season this year (only 5 months away from the start?) will be like for merchants.
If the economy stays down as I suspect, I would guess that the merchants will take a shellacking which will leave many manufacturers in trouble also. Could make it very difficult for things to turn up in the first quarter or two of 2010?