![]() | Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan | The Oil Drum | The Oil Intensity of Food | ![]() |
54 comments on DrumBeat: July 4, 2009
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54 comments on DrumBeat: July 4, 2009
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I looked at China's natural gas consumption on BP's statistics. Over the past 10 years, China's nat gas demand averaged a 15% increase per year, compared to their oil demand, which increased only 6.6% per year. While natural gas is only about 3% of Chinese gas consumption, it's about the same amount of gas as Japan, which is the largest LNG importer in the world.
China is obviously coming to the realization (even if slowly) that their fossil fuel consumption, particularly coal and oil, is pretty problematic, in terms of global supply issues, climate change, and local air pollution. Hence the gas pipelines to central Asia, the 10 LNG terminals their building, the massive build out of nuclear and wind. All hopes that it works out.
I don't know why this keeps getting repeated. The Chinese government was making moves years earlier than the US. Interviews from a year or two back are full of concern and planning by Chinese officials. Why do people keep assuming that their practical problems = their goals? Come to think of it, I don't recall a single denialist comment out of China at all, unlike US policies up until Jan. 20th.
Cheers
I was by no means insinuating that the US was making much better progress, but it seemed for the longest time that China's only energy policy was coal, and to shut down old coal plants with newer coal plants. Hence the atrocious local air quality. Any progress in policy by the central government is being hampered by local officials.
It still doesn't look like they're changing their coal policy, although the growth rate of coal in China is tapering off, and it seems they're actively looking at almost all other fuel sources, except perhaps except for solar, although it looks like that may be changing. At least when China decides to move, they do so in a big way.
I agree, I think in this particular area the Chinese are far more forward looking than their US counterparts.
The real questions include whether the provincial and local level governments - which swim in a sea of crony capitalism and graft - will embrace the climate friendly national approach or will the national efforts be undone by the coal business puppet- mastery at more local levels?
Another question is whether the Chinese will be able to afford the energy transition? There is the overall assumption that because they are holders of a lot of cash reserves and posssess a large industrial base, they can easily divert this and that resource to whatever problem they wish to address. In reality, the Chinese reserves are dwindling - exports are falling and cash income is shrinking. Also, the PBOC has made a lot of credit committments against their reserves.
Speculators ... like the Chinese themselves. The Chinese are 'resbalancing' their capital reserve base away from dollar- denominated securities like Treasury bonds and mortgage- backed GSE bonds and have been using the funds to purchase commodities. While only China's hairdresser knows for sure, it is likely the contango in the oil futures market is China's responsibility. They have insufficient physical storage and buying into the future on the futures market is a reasonable strategy substitute.
The real problem in China is its dependence upon coal, which is has in relative abundance. It is cheap for its manufacturing sector to use and its inefficiency synchronizes with the Chinese strategy of using large forces of (cheap) labor utilizing more or less obsolete machinery to produce cheap goods for export. All else being equal, the Chinese manufacturing sector's use of coal for export production will overcome any attempt by that country's government to cut carbon emissions by other means.
I think this is what most people concern themselves about when they consider Chinese carbon emissions.
The key factor is exports from China. If people - consumers - want a less carbonized future, they shouldn't buy Chinese products until China swears off coal and other fossil fuels. Can this happen?
In the late 90's, activists alarmed by the use of old- growth lumber being used as studs and other basic building materials protested Home Depot:
As a consequence, Home Depot started selling Certified lumber in its stores:
The Chinese are already hurting in the wallet as Americans look to balance their personal balance sheets, refusing to buy Chinese products and telling the Chinese government so would give them added incentive to make the switch away from fossil fuels. Avoiding Walmart and other purveyors of Chinese goods would also be effective.
Hi Steve,
RE: "While only China's hairdresser knows for sure, it is likely the contango in the oil futures market is China's responsibility. They have insufficient physical storage and buying into the future on the futures market is a reasonable strategy substitute."
IIRC, the export of crude oil from the US is either banned or all but banned, and the biggest contango market was on NYMEX. Maybe this is a good hedge, but not a full-on substitute for storage.
And,
RE: Chinese goods, you are right on. Buy Fresh, Buy Local in food and buy American on all else you can. I'll still shop WalMart on what I can, however, within my own self imposed constraints.