130 comments on Problems for the Pickens' Plan
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GAIA Host Collective
The drop in industrial and commercial demand in some cases is surprisingly steep, as illustrated below:
We Energies said in its updated filing that its electricity sales to large commercial and industrial customers are projected to drop 13.6% this year and recover only slightly, by 0.2%, next year. Sales to smaller business customers are projected to drop 6.9% this year and another 1% next year, and sales to residential customers are projected to grow slightly this year, by 0.6%, but then fall next year by 0.3%.
Source: http://www.jsonline.com/business/50090982.html
Clark Public Utilities reports that electricity sales to industrial customers is down 18.3 percent this year through May from a comparable five-month period in 2008.
Lower sales to the industrial group, which includes high-tech customers Hewlett-Packard, SEH America, and Sharp Microelectronics Corp., indicates that many Clark County manufacturers have shut down or reduced production, said Mick Shutt, utility spokesman.
http://www.columbian.com/article/20090630/BIZ01/706309977/-1/BIZ
Taken as a whole:
U.S. electricity demand is expected to drop 2% this year amid continued weakness in the industrial sector, the U.S. government said Tuesday.
In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration lowered its power consumption projections for this year and next year, seeing only a 0.8% rebound in demand in 2010. The EIA last month had projected a 1.8% drop in demand for 2009 and a 1.2% increase in 2010.
"Retail sales of electricity in the industrial sector continue to decline, having fallen by 12% during the first quarter of 2009 compared with year-ago levels," the EIA said.
Source: http://www.easybourse.com/bourse/actualite/update-eia-us-electricity-dem...
Cheers,
Paul
Yes, my graph shows all of that, although commercial use only fell short slightly, is catching up with last year's levels and could match them, barring a massive downturn in the commercial sector.
These drops in demand are all recession related; similarly diesel, jet fuel, and various other refinery products associated with commercial use are down, but gasoline demand is rebounding in match with VMT coming up to last year's levels, suggesting that these curbs are wholly transitory and will be erased when the economy picks back up, assuming it does that is.
I agree, although one might reasonably question whether demand will fully recover in light of generally and in some cases significantly higher prices. Historically, as I'm told, long term price elasticity within the commercial sector falls somewhere between -0.20 and -0.97 (Rand, 2005). Keep in mind, these numbers may underestimate price sensitivity in that we appear to be moving from a period of relative price stability characterized by generally flat or declining electricity rates, to one marked by increasing price volatility. Along with this, the broadening range and declining cost of numerous energy saving technologies, and the various financial incentives offered by utilities, government, ESCOs to encourage their adoption, continues to accelerate.
I confess I'm not particularly well read in this area and working outside my comfort zone, so I'd appreciate your thoughts on this and those of the other contributors to this thread.
Cheers,
Paul