130 comments on Problems for the Pickens' Plan
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130 comments on Problems for the Pickens' Plan
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Yes, my graph shows all of that, although commercial use only fell short slightly, is catching up with last year's levels and could match them, barring a massive downturn in the commercial sector.
These drops in demand are all recession related; similarly diesel, jet fuel, and various other refinery products associated with commercial use are down, but gasoline demand is rebounding in match with VMT coming up to last year's levels, suggesting that these curbs are wholly transitory and will be erased when the economy picks back up, assuming it does that is.
I agree, although one might reasonably question whether demand will fully recover in light of generally and in some cases significantly higher prices. Historically, as I'm told, long term price elasticity within the commercial sector falls somewhere between -0.20 and -0.97 (Rand, 2005). Keep in mind, these numbers may underestimate price sensitivity in that we appear to be moving from a period of relative price stability characterized by generally flat or declining electricity rates, to one marked by increasing price volatility. Along with this, the broadening range and declining cost of numerous energy saving technologies, and the various financial incentives offered by utilities, government, ESCOs to encourage their adoption, continues to accelerate.
I confess I'm not particularly well read in this area and working outside my comfort zone, so I'd appreciate your thoughts on this and those of the other contributors to this thread.
Cheers,
Paul