Nice post topic, thanks Nate.

I think "hoarding" is one interesting example of phase-state transitions in human systems which share some very similar dynamics with nonliving systems. I think such phase transitions will be an important thing shaping the way things turn out. Fruitful ground for discussion another day.

To a certain degree, I practice what some would call hoarding, and have always done so; not as a reaction to any particular fear but as a kind of no-brainer level of individual resilience. Not only does it cost less to buy foods in bulk, but it saves fuel, money, and CO2. Moreover, I have water purification systems, antibiotics, and all else one would need to survive independent of external systems for 6 months or so. There is no net cost to do this; again, it saves money, time, and convenience at the minor costs of a little storage space and forethought. What's the down side?

Actually, if you buy stuff while it's plentiful, I don't know that it's technically hoarding.

Certainly, anyone who's ever been in a survival situation might think this way, and I have been. In my case, though, it may just be my partial-autism wiring; I have never been uncomfortable doing stuff in different ways than others if it seemed to make more sense. Thus, making a trip to the store every day just seems dysfunctional to me; aesthetically messed-up.

I have a brother in Texas, and when visiting there once, he and his wife admonished me not to buy a 5-lb bag of potatoes even though it was the same price as one pound of non-bagged potatoes (and identical potatoes). I bought them anyway, and when it came to storing the remaining 4 lbs overnight, they asked me to throw them away because they didn't wish to be the "sort of people" who stored potatoes. I noted that they'd actually be wise to have a bit of food stored in their home for unforseen circumstances and offered to pay for it myself. His wife simply said "we'd rather die" and that ended that discussion. They fancied themselves fairly well-off at the time, not sure about now.

As I say, I don't consider my lifestyle to constitute special prep for anything; I'd turn it around and wonder why anyone would wish to depend absolutely on a long supply chain and just-in-time delivery for their meds, food, sanitation, etc.

For heavy-duty situations like societal collapse, individual resilience makes some sense, but stored food wouldn't help much.

More to the point, for me, is that I have consciously de-emphasized personal survival to focus on larger questions of the earth. At 58 and somewhat disabled, living forever is a losing proposition anyhow; and would be a silly place for sunk costs. I'll probably survive any weird stuff fairly well since I operate efficiently in chaotic situations, but it's not an important goal compared with what's generally at stake.

RE: discount rates, I'll do a separate post on that....