I have been informally running the same experiment. I have several couples that I use as my "test subjects" to gauge if humanity is willing to save itself. They are intelligent, well educated, environmentally aware, and wealthy enough to make whatever lifestyle changes are necessary. But so far they have changed very little. One even traded in a car for an SUV (this was not long after expressing a worry that the only viable land long term might be in Northern Canada). I shake my head.

I went as far as to help fund a neighborhood sized survey into environmental attitudes and energy efficiency. I found that most people complained they did not have the money to make changes. But that complaint was echoed by everyone with incomes from 20k per year to the over 100k per year.

I think Mr. Chu said it best when he said something like "Most homes could be made much more efficiency for a few thousand dollars... but people would rather have a granite counter top."

Or as one of our city councilers said (paraphrased) "You can't show off new insulation to your neighbors."

Score one for Nate's thesis.

Environmentalists have been crying "wolf!" so long that the general public is not going to come running.

We are "designed " in such a way that we are geared to regulating our day to day behavior by imitating our fellow citizens.Our mental time frames are geared to the short term.

The public may mosey over-even hurry over- and take a look once in a while when there are bloody body parts of little boys to be seen.

A very few of the gaping onlookers will prove to be smart enough to realize that the wolves can get them and by extension,everybody.

Everybody else will forget about what they have seen in a day or two.

I have never been fortunate enough to actually witness hunting lions but I read that once a kill is made the rest of the zebras seem to realize has the danger has passed and don't run much farther..A few minutes later zebra behavior is back to normal.

There seems to be a built in bias that keeps us from recognizing new threats.

Doing what everybody else is doing has been a very successful strategy over the long run.Believing what everyone else believes has been a very successful strategy.

"You can't show off new insulation to your neighbors."

But you can by publishing the stats on each and every utility bill. The city-wide average, as well as your neighbors number should be on there. The lowest residential bill in a 5 mile radius gets a free month -- I would be winning at first but it wouldn't take others long to catch up.

I halted my experiment with only one test subject - my wife. I read the SciAm article by Colin Campbell back in 1999 and began banging on about Peak Oil every chance I got. two years later, for Father's Day, she bought me a new Series 2 TiVo. But you see, we already had a TiVo that worked perfectly fine. I knew then and there that we as a species would push harder on the accelerator the closer to the cliff we got.

It is a common reaction, I think.

I have to be careful with my wife. She gets parts of it, but she still feels all of the external pressures of keeping up with the neighbors. She keeps asking me what I want to do when I retire and I just laugh - who knows what kind of (*&(& shape the world will be in when I reach retirement age.

Another problem is lack of feedback for our efforts: so you sell your car and go everywhere by bike. Other than being sweaty and perhaps losing a few pounds, what is the outcome? You have to be motivated by some version of "self-righteousness". It's the same with trying to get fit, or eat healthy. So you do it for a day or a week, and you don't really feel that different. Meanwhile, you feel "deprived", because you haven't had your dose of high fat "numbing" or couch potato behavior. On the other hand, if you set a goal of growing yummy tomatoes, you will have these cool little plants to look at and soon enough, they will bloom and bear fruit. Perhaps this is why seed sales are rising by 30% whereas driving behavior only decreases by very small amounts.

Yesterday evening I came across information about the Northwest Earth Institute (http://www.nwei.org/). They target this sort of inertia by bringing together a group of people to discuss an issue over several weeks. This results in lasting change in beliefs, attitudes and behavior for some of them. It would also predictably result in an improved sense of community, a good in itself. I got a chance to look at their "guidebooks" for the discussions, also called "courses". They are brilliant! The discussion questions are really interesting! I would love to do this with my neighbors or parents at my kids' school.

Fantastic! Thank you!

Clearly *some* people are willing to go all out. We just need to figure out what switch flipped in those peoples brains and spray it into the air....

Some reasons for lifestyle changes, even if the difference they make is miniscule:

-Personal integrity and credibility (avoiding the "do as I say, not as I do" accusation)

-Leadership by example, being a model for others, demonstrating that it IS possible

-Being an "early adopter/pioneer" - discover and overcome challenges early, so that you can teach others and help them to overcome those obstacles

-Getting ahead of the curve: training oneself to give up things and to learn to live a simpler lifestyle before one absolutely has to, practice is preparation

All good, and I agree.

however...

I think "Frodo walking to Mordor" is the level of personal responsibility to aspire to.