I am inclined to accept the EIA data as being probably being pretty close to what it really is. Who would have the motivation and resources to distort it?

Well that's obvious - Dick Cheney and friends. Luckily because energy isn't a national security issue or anything like that none of this is likely to have happened and Simmons is clearly barking mad...

But rest assured no one knows shale like Halliburton. I know that because it says it on their site :-)

And further
http://www.halliburton.com/shale/Default.aspx?navid=823&pageid=2017

The most significant news in “new” U.S. unconventional gas is shale gas. Why? The biggest reason is supply. As explained in this presentation, there is quite simply, a lot of shale gas to be had. No two shale plays are alike and Halliburton has the expertise to determine the potential of each shale play. Learn in detail by viewing this informative video. Unlocking that potential requires knowledge of every aspect of the process—evaluation, planning, drilling, completions, stimulation, production.

Once a company like Halliburton gets behind the idea that there is huge amount more shale gas, it is very difficult to back-peddle. Even if some analyst with Halliburton says, "By the way, production drops off a lot sooner than we have been assuming, so the ultimate recovery per well is less than is economic, unless the price of gas is very high ($12 or $18 or who knows what)," that analyst is likely to be ignored.

The fact that Halliburton is saying there is a huge amount of shale gas gives natural gas companies and their auditors comfort that the reserves they are booking are reasonable. If Halliburton say something is true, it must be so.

One point to make about anything Halliburton has to say about the shale gas plays: they don't make one penny from selling NG. They make their money by charging companies to drill for shale gas. As long as companies are contracting Halliburton to do the work they could care less about operator's profitability. Other then, of course, operators losing the financial motive to drill such wells.
I'll repeat some prior comments. I can be a little more open now that I'm no longer under contract to Devon. Not that that was a big secret but I didn't want folks to give my opinions excess credibility as I wasn't a Devon spokesman. Even before the NG price drop the profits from SG drilling were getting slim. Between ridiculous lease costs and ever increasing drilling/completion costs the profit motive was shrinking quickly. But for public companies in the NG production biz replacing and increasing the reserve base was more critical then profitability. Might not make sense to some but that's how Wall Street values such companies. Disappoint WS in this matter and your stock price suffers. And the boards gets unhappy and management suffers.
There is absolutely no new significant NG development on the horizon. Doesn't matter if most companies see a demand (and price) increase a few years out. There is virtually no significant capital for such efforts today. Except, of course for my new company (and a very few more) that is buying up world class NG drilling prospects at bargain prices right now. We've got $300 million targeted for the drill bit over the next several years. Our owner has made his past fortunes in the commodity markets and sees the current situation as one of the greatest potential in his very long career. Same old saw on how to make money in any market: buy low --sell high. A simple plan: build FF reserves now while drilling and project acquisition costs are cheap and wait for the inevitable price spike and then cash out the company before we throw ourselves into another energy driven recession. Thank goodness my odd habit of being the most successful during industry downturns is still in place. If all goes to plan I'll be heading to the house permanently in a few years. I'm ready: this rollercoaster career has taken its toll. If I were a smarter person I would have found a more stable career then geologist but I was doomed from my earliest days when I found rocks very interesting.

Thanks for your on-the ground observations. It doesn't add any to my confidence, though.

OK, here is a graph built from the EIA data on Energy Information Administration - International Natural Gas Consumption for May:

I'll need to look at this a bit more but at first glance it doesn't look very accurate to me - at least not on a European individual country level (Norway consumption down 47.1% YTD for example?). Taking it up to OECD regions it looks a bit more realistic.

OECD North America -4.2% YTD
OECD Pacific -8.6% YTD
OECD Europe -8.5%

If the North America has lower gas prices than most of the world, the numbers look reasonable to me (ignoring all of the bouncing around).

A quick check on the ICE exchange shows UK September Nat Gas prices at about 23p/therm. Which is about $3.80/million BTU which is only just above US Henry Hub prices. I would imagine prices are comparable in Europe.

StatoilHydro Profit Almost Wiped Out as Demand Slumps

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- StatoilHydro ASA, the world’s largest offshore oil and gas operator, said profit was almost wiped out in the second quarter as the global recession sapped fuel demand, denting prices for crude and natural gas.

Net income fell to 77 million kroner ($12.8 million), or 0.02 kroner a share, from 18.8 billion kroner, or 5.89 kroner, a year earlier, the Stavanger, Norway-based company said in a statement today. Analysts estimated a profit of 7.1 billion kroner. Sales dropped 39 percent to 104.6 billion kroner.

“Natural gas demand has been weak in Europe in the second quarter, evidenced by the 32 percent decline in Russian exports to Europe, which will impact StatoilHydro the most,” Oswald Clint and Caroline Hickson, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. in London, said in a July 27 note.

OK, here is a graph built from the EIA data

Ok, first off this is actually IEA data not EIA data even though it is linked on the EIA site but it is not accurate on a country level - I've never looked at this report before but I'll try to find time to dig into it later but, for example, Germany is shown only down 1.2% YTD

This from Bloomberg on German consumption.

RWE First-Half Profit Gains 4.7% on Locked-in Tariffs

Power, Gas Demand

Power demand dropped 6 percent to 262 terawatt-hours in the first half, while gas consumption retreated 11 percent to 469 terawatt-hours on lower use by industry, according to BDEW data.

But the bottom line remains that there has been far less of an apparent consumption drop in the US than there has been elsewhere even though prices seem comparable.

Some ideas:

1. The prices you are quoting are current ones. I thought at the beginning of the year, when the drop in demand was greatest, Russia was using prices that were based on oil prices, but six month lagged, so these prices were quite high. These high prices may have contributed to lower demand in the first part of the year.

2. The US did a fair amount of switching from coal to gas for electricity generation, when prices dropped. My impression is that switching to natural gas did not happen to a significant degree in Europe. The US has a lot of unused natural gas capacity for generating electricity, as well as a lot of electricity generated by coal year around. This combination makes switching to natural gas when the prices drop pretty easy. I haven't looked very much at Europe, but my impression there is much less capability of switching from coal to gas for electricity. (Britain uses coal mainly as a supplement, in winter; France uses little coal period; Norway uses hydroelectric not coal; etc.)

3. The impact of the recession is largest on industry (compared to residential and commercial). Natural gas in Europe may be disproportionately used by industry??? In the US, a lot of gas is used by residential and commercial, which contracted less.

4. Actual supply unavailability in some parts of Europe last winter may have contributed to the drop-off.

And the above may well be the explanations but you have to admit it would be much easier to dismiss Simmons out of hand if the fall in consumption in the US more obviously matched the rest of the OECD. I have no idea where he gets some of his info from but I find it worth noting at least.