<Drumbeat: October 16, 2009 The Oil Drum Drumbeat: October 17, 2009>
<Half a trillion barrels more than we thought? (Or, "The Tupi Field, the Pre-salt, and the Very Distant Future") The Oil Drum: Europe Comments on Scientific American's "Squeezing more oil from the ground">

148 comments on Sadad al-Husseini on Middle East OPEC oil fields

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

ROCKMAN on October 17, 2009 - 9:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

pocampo -- A thought: you might want to read "The Black Swan". The title refers to the inability to predict very impactful events in our future. But it really delves into predicting trends in general. I'm re-reading as I'm not very good at absorbing such matters. One point that's really beginning to sink in: we might not be able to predict Black Swans such as the meltdown of the real estate biz but that doesn't mean you can't adjust your positions to lesson the impact when one hits. Maybe you pass on a few good looking deals. maybe cut your margin a little. Maybe your comtemporaries might look down on your "pessimism" but consider how you might be looking down on them today had you been in a better protected position. It's a heavy and challenging read but well worth it IMO.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
pocampo on October 17, 2009 - 11:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks Rock, I'm familiar with this concept, I saw Taleb in a Interview from Newport Beach last year. I meant to get it.I will now for sure. They did the first interview with him, then next interview was a guy from Pimco Bill Gross. Bill Gross is a expert on every subject. LOL. In the past I thought I was hedged, boy was I wrong. In my teaching I will just talk about how much we all use and depend on petroleum products everyday and how vital they are to our way of life. Then build from there on stuff they can verify on there own. I also find it funny the term Black Swan and the word predict in the same Paragraph.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
ROCKMAN on October 17, 2009 - 11:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

pocampo -- When you read Taleb's full context you discover he is the embodiment of anti-prediction. Not that he thinks valued predictions can't be made but that few understand the process. It's easy for me to empathetic with your predicament. I was lucky in that when my career started in 1975 an oil boom was just beginning. Like many unaware of Black Swans I could not see the possibility of a bust and thus never prepared. And then came $10 oil. Driving a taxi and delivering produce to restaurants taught me to never take such high times for granted again. I hear that same resolution in your voice. Good luck buddy.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

148 comments on Sadad al-Husseini on Middle East OPEC oil fields

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version