Bert,I basically agree-I can't see any reason for oil production to fall off so fast that we can't ration fuel and petroluem products for quite a while-barring war or a sudden drastic collapse of the economy.In the latter caes I think emergency laws-martial law if necessary- will keep the industrial ag system functioning well enough to prevent starvation or severe malnutrition, although life might get a little monotonous at meal time.

As a matter of fact this is the most likely outcome imo if oil depletes as fast as the worst pessimists think it will.

At that time we can and will get seriously into local farming and localized everything again-I see a couple of very tough decades but not a dieoff here in the states, nor in any major western country-the rest of the world is a different matter altogether.

The amount of resources that are expended daily in this country to no net good effect staggers the imagination.

If somebody who owns his own home gives up a car for public transportation, that will leave him with thousands of dollars a year available to pay for a pv system or a ground water heat pump and triple glazed windows.

It's not like the man on the street is incapable of changing his ways once he percieves the necessity of doing so.

If we just quit building new highways,sports stadiums,and govt office complexes-not to mention post offices, jails and courts to incarcerate pot smokers,and back off few billion here and there on the banksters welfare checks,we can pull thru ok.

And we will-simply because we will have no choice.

One way of looking at our problems is to count off the number of people who churn money and paper but provide no productive services-there are tens of thousands of parasites whichever direction you look-in a bankers economy they earn a profit but they produce nothing-grant writers,advertising agencies,professional athletes-we could have just as much fun watching thirty thousand dollar athletes as we could three million dollar athletes.We could get just as tipsy on locally brewed unadvertised beer as we could on any national brand-and probably enjoy it more as it would almost certainly taste better.

Who thinks a grant writer adds any thing useful to the economy?

Okay. I tried to respond once, and will do it again. Maybe my computer will allow it this time.

Bert, the die off I speak of comes from going past peak food. Peak oil first, then peak food, then peak population.

Malthus was right, in a way. The earth can not support a limitless population of any species, even homo sapiens. I have heard anywhere from .8 to 1.5 Billion sustainable, and we now have about 6.5 Billion. I use 1.25 B as my number just because I have to figure something. That means, when we begin to run out of oil, we have to begin reducing population. When we are out, we need to be at 1.25 Billion. 5.25 B are not going to be very happy, are they? I think it could be dicey, though we in America have sufficient areable land to do better than some places.

The government can mediate all they want, but no matter what the price, or how mediated it is, if there is not enough food for everyone, someone goes hungry.

Now, maybe you are right and we have enough time to deal with this situation. I hope so. And, again, I am relatively optimistic about America... except that there are places where it be bad. Inner cities come to mind. Suburbanites may have enough yard space to supplement and survive - maybe - if they know how to do it.

It sounds to me like your army will have things well in hand. My advise to you is, enlist!

I personally am making preparations. I just don't know if there will be enough time to complete them. lago Energy thinks by 2013 we will be in deep doo doo. The crash will start before then.

Maybe that 2012 date is prophetic after all?