It's more politics than anything else.  ANWR will be drilled, if only to let politicians say, "We did all we could."

If we accept the imminent peak oil model (peak is between now and 2015), then we should expect that oil and natural gas will be extracted from every economically recoverable deposit we can find.  If prices are rising rapidly and the resource is there, why wouldn't we go after it?

Can anyone shed light on how the leases for drilling (such as those to be used in ANWR) work? Do they get to lease X acres for X $, X $/barrel, or X% of revenues from the oil? Also, who gets the money from the leases?
I'm bothered that Matt Simmons is so keen on drilling in ANWR.
matt simmons is , first of all , an oil man. why would you expect him to say anything different? he has never implied that oil was still not the central fixture of the u.s. energy picture...i wouldn't expect him to be growing corn on the back forty in order to make biodiesel, or cranking up a wind turbine so he can watch the tube.
Actually, he is an energy man more than an oil man from what I see. I see him promoting all ways to address the energy situation. He supports alternative energy as well as oil. He is just not an environmentalist in any conventional sense. He believes human well-being relies on adequate energy supplies of all kinds for food, transport and quality of life.
A lot of things about Matt Simmons bother me. While I'm not a big fan of "conspiracy" theories, he is a member of the CFR (like Judith Miller). I think one should always be careful about sleeping with your enemy's enemy.
I'm glad to learn that I'm not the only poster on theoildrum who has misgingings about Matt Simmons.  I tried to raise these concerns on the open thread of Oct. 19, but the responses were uniformly replete with praise for Simmons (not that this praise is undeserved, but neither do they adequately quell all the misgivings):

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/19/23321/213#comments

Now what would happen if it became uneconomical to drill ANWR? Would that stop them?