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30 comments on Non-OPEC Oil Supply Gains

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beeninagasline on January 3, 2006 - 4:20am

I just downloaded the EIA's 2006 Annual energy Outlook 2006, and they project that total global petroleum production will increase by 42% between 2004 and 2030, from 82.99 mbd to 117.83 mbd (conventional and unconventional) - 35 mbd total. 27 mbd from conventional sources and 8 mbd from unconventional sources.

Don't know where they get the mojo for that set of projections. Would appreciate enlightenment!

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BabyPeanut on January 3, 2006 - 10:47am

The US Department of Energy, Energy "Information" Agency was even less realistic the previous year.

...Oil is now projected to cost an inflation adjusted $54.08 per barrel in 2025 vs. last year's estimate of $32.95...

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Agric on January 3, 2006 - 11:24am

That would be Sino$ which will be trading at approximately 40 US$ to 1 Sino$ in January 2025, making the oil price about US$ 2200 ;)

I wonder what inflation adjustment thet are using? Consumer CPI, core CPI, GDP deflator CPI... or a realistic CPI measure?

But taking a more practical pespective... they couldn't suddenly switch to a realistic estimate - that would have made their previous estimates look silly ( ho ho ho ) so they'll probably increase their estimate by about 50% per year and: hey presto, by 2024 it will be nearly accurate ;)

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