The Oil Drum

Two points:
1 It is true that no US refineries have been built in 25 years, but this is very misleading - US refinery output, measured in barrels input, has increased around 30% in the period, albeit almost nil since 2000.
2 Refinery profit is dependent on cost of crude less price of product. If crude is rising faster than product prices, as has been true for most of the period from 1998, refinery profits are declining, reducing interest in new investments. (European supplies of product post K/R has naturally cut product prices and refinery profits.)  The only company significantly expanding capacity in the US is Valero, which buys up old, antiquated refineries, adds substantial new equipment designed to handle cheap sour/heavy crudes, and ends up with higher output. So, most integrated oils are not interested in expanding because their profits are anemic, but Valero is happily exploiting its niche. Eventually, if refinery capacity is a true bottleneck, crude stocks will continue to rise (as they have been for the last year) while product prices rise, increasing refinery profits and renewing interest in expansion. OTOH, OPEC may defend $55 NYMEX, restricting crude to match refinery capacity.