The Oil Drum

62 comments on IEA Monthly Report for December

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Oil CEO on January 18, 2006 - 3:16am

I've just finished a fairly extensive compilation of monthly world supply comprised of the 75 countries that make up 99.8% of production.

I used EIA's and BP's number alomg with my own calculations to determine monthly total liquids from raw (crude+lease condensate numbers).

I put down the US for about 7.5 mbp for Dec up a million from Nov. I've got Iraq at 1.3mbp, Angola at 1.5mbpd for the hell of it.

I get a total of 83.090 with a probable error rate of +/- .300.

I don't even know half the time if EIA's data matches itself internally. Take a look at their world oil balance numbers, the data is completely different for the exact same time periods from what they come up with when they calculate supply and demand separately. If you look at their demand tables - the numbers are higher than the corresponding supply.

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peakearl on January 18, 2006 - 2:03pm

How do you find US up 1 million from Nov to Dec? MMS numbers suggest something like 200,000 - 300,000 b/d further hurricane recovery, and EIA would suggest a total of about 500,000 b/d more domestic oil production in Dec than Nov. Just curious.

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Oil CEO on January 19, 2006 - 3:58am

The numbers straight from EIA for July,Aug are 8.128 and 8.173 - count that as pre-hurricane. Sep and Oct are 6.532 and 6.584.

At this point, to make things easy, I'm not using a particular number for November since we are already into Jan and I'd like to wait for a revised, published number.

I arbitrarily made December 7.500 as a mark on the road to hurricane recovery which will eventually take us back to the 8.1 level. I realize this is probably premature and I will be using your input to revise my table. Thanks.

You can obviously see the fun involved in trying to come up with accurate, up-to-date info.