<What would we have predicted for Kuwait?The Oil Druma linear extrapolation of oil consumption by demand growth, production growth, and demand elasticity>

87 comments on Weekend Open Thread...

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Slippery Slope on January 21, 2006 - 9:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This link is better
http://www.norwaypost.no/cgi-bin/norwaypost/imaker?id=21249
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Agric on January 21, 2006 - 9:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hmmm, impending death by a thousand cuts?

We currently have the following known supply reductions:

  • Statoil 140 kbpd (should we include the 118 kbpd condensate?)
  • Nigeria 200 kbpd
  • Russia 200 kbpd
  • GOM 400 kbpd

That's not far short of 1 mbpd, all hands to the pumps folks.
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CassandraOil on January 22, 2006 - 1:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This and China losing control of demand at home explains why we are within a few bucks of a new all-time high on WTI. Even without a catastrophe in Iran we'll be at 90 by summer. With an Iranian bombing adventure in the mix, who knows?

I love how Cheney just comes right out and says, "An oil price spike is better than an Iran with nukes."

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peakearl on January 22, 2006 - 3:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree. However, I have to admit to being surprised and impressed by how well Mexico is holding up at the verge of rapid decline of Cantarell. They produced 95,000 b/d more in Dec than Nov. How long this holds up, I don't know.

http://www.pemex.com/files/dcpe/eprohidro_ing.pdf

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Leanan on January 22, 2006 - 10:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Maybe because there were no hurricanes in Central America in December?
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peakearl on January 22, 2006 - 4:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No hurricanes affecting Mexican oil in November and I'm not sure if any effect in October either. Their production is pretty well protected from hurricanes and the effect of earlier hurricanes was mainly due to evacuation of platforms, not damage, in contrast to US production.
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Leanan on January 22, 2006 - 7:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Are you sure?  I thought at least one of them resulted in Mexican platforms being evacuated.  Epsilon, or something like that.
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peakearl on January 22, 2006 - 8:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You're right about Oct to some degree. Hurricane Stan forced evacuation of 5 platforms and shut loading docks for a short period the first week of October, but is said to have had only small impact on production and no damage to oil facilities. Epsilon was off in the Atlantic much later.
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