Drumbeat: November 7, 2009


Shrinking to grow: Is Conoco plan a model for industry?

Although one company doesn’t represent a whole industry, a shrink-to-grow strategy adopted by ConocoPhillips illustrates pressures on the biggest operators in a world of shrinking opportunity.

ConocoPhillips has disclosed plans to cut capital spending next year to $11 billion from $12.5 billion this year and $14-15 billion in earlier years and to sell properties in 2010-11 worth $10 billion.

“We will be somewhat smaller,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jim Mulva in an Oct. 28 conference call.

Mulva noted recessionary effects on credit markets and said diminishing access to large opportunities “is and will continue to be quite an issue.”

Drumbeat: November 6, 2009


Interview With Ian Gordon

IAN: Well I do subscribe to the theory of peak oil. But again, I think the demand for oil is going to drop precipitously. Simply because no one’s gonna be working. Again if we use the idea that 45% of the U.S economy is going to be halted. That means essentially that the same kind of oil demand is the percentage dropping oil demand is also going to occur in the United States. And we are only picking on the United States because she has the largest economy in the world but we are all going be in be in the same boat.

So the whole world economy is going to drop by that kind of percentage.

TRACE: But not necessarily a precipitous enough drop that we could see 90% of the earth’s population washed away in this winter because of unsustainability?

IAN: Well, you are not going to see that because, as you know, there is a significant part of the world’s population who basically do not have anything anyway. If we go into Africa, or huge parts of China, India, etc. even though they are emerging nations they still have a large percentage of the population that are extremely poor.

Drumbeat: November 5, 2009


Kunstler: It's Time to Rebuild Our Passenger Railroad System

The world economic fiasco, which I call "The Long Emergency," may be speeding us into a future of permanent nostalgia in which anything that is not of the present time looks good.

I say this to avert any accusations that I am trafficking in sentimentality where the subject of railroads is concerned. For the moment, any suggestion that a railroad revival in America might be a good thing is generally greeted as laughable for reasons ranging from the incompetence of Amtrak, to the sprawling layout of our suburbs, to our immense investment in cars, trucks and highways -- motoring culture now overshadowing all other aspects of our national identity.

Drumbeat: November 4, 2009


World Need for Oil Expected to Ease: International Energy Agency Says Conservation Efforts Will Trump Any Global Economic Recovery

The International Energy Agency next week will make a "substantial" downward revision to its long-term forecast for global oil demand, a person familiar with the matter said, marking the second year running the group has slashed its view of the world's thirst for oil.

The forecast of slower growth in oil demand puts the IEA increasingly in a camp of contrarians bucking the popular view that crude demand will grow briskly in a postrecession world. That view holds that long-term demand will grow at a fast clip because of rising emerging-market wealth and consumption in places like China and India.

...A person familiar with the Paris-based IEA's plans said "demand-management policies" are having more impact than previously expected in the developed world, which accounts for about 55% of world oil consumption. The IEA outlook, a guidepost for industry trends, is scheduled to be released Nov. 10.

Drumbeat: November 3, 2009


Shale gas row gets nasty

Today Daniel Yergin, author of the seminal oil industry tome ‘The Prize’, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that shale gas is a game changer for US energy. Those who follow natgas will have heard it all before: more advanced and affordable technology, mainly hydraulic fracturing or fracking, has opened up an abundant supply of gas that could satisfy US needs for many, many decades to come. Yergin’s point that this has happened with ‘no great fanfare,’ however, probably stands true for the average person who isn’t an avid follower of energy news.

Shale gas not only promises to relieve the US of a potential energy security headache, but there’s the oft-quoted environmental angle, too: as a source of electricity, natural gas can give off 50 per less CO2 than coal, when burnt in the modern plants. It’s not just for the US, either: suggestions are that Europe and Asia might have huge supplies of shale gas, too (although Yergin notes that development of such resources could be some way off).

But there’s a persistent bunch of doubters about the shale gas story. The explosion in shale gas is new, and the horizontal wells that are being drilled furiously by Chesapeake are widely known to decline in output fairly rapidly after the first 12 months. This has led some respected resource watchers, including Matt Simmons, to voice scepticism that the shale gas is really about to revolutionise supply.

Drumbeat: November 2, 2009


Aramco takes war on speculators to whole new index

With oil prices thoroughly decoupled from the fundamentals of supply and demand, Saudi Aramco has decided it is time to nudge the market towards reality.

Last week, the world’s biggest oil company said that as of next January, it would use the Argus Sour Crude Index instead of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude as the benchmark for pricing all grades of Saudi crude sold to US customers.

Why that would make a difference takes some explaining, but it boils down to a decision to link Saudi crude sales to a market that the state-owned Aramco can influence through the number of tankers it dispatches towards the US coast.

Drumbeat: November 1, 2009


An energy game-changer?: Louisiana shale could change fate of U.S. energy supply

The gas found in the area's Haynesville shale and in other shale formations throughout the country has changed the nation's energy outlook in just a few short years.

Some see abundant North American natural gas as the gateway to reduced dependence on foreign oil and a bridge toward carbon-free energy sources since gas is the lowest-emission fossil fuel.

Others say the surge in next-generation gas production isn't paying off as promised and threatens local water supplies.

Some even see it as another speculative bubble, driven by hype that will never deliver the fuel it promises.

Drumbeat: October 31, 2009


The holdout: Alone in an abandoned car plant

DETROIT (CNNMoney.com) -- Most people assume the Packard Plant in Detroit is vacant. It's an industrial ruin where the last car was manufactured 53 years ago.

Almost all the windows are blown out. Collapsed walls litter the overgrown sidewalks with broken bricks, mixed with charred metal and shattered glass.

But one tenant remains headquartered among the vines, rust and graffiti. Where 11,000 employees once clocked in, now just 10 workers for Chemical Processing Inc. show up each morning.

Running a business in a facility widely assumed to be deserted has its challenges. The address surprises customers. The landlord doesn't make repairs. And sometimes, scrappers steal your power lines.

Drumbeat: October 30, 2009


U.S. natural gas rig count climbs 3 to 728 for week

The U.S. natural gas drilling rig count has gained in 13 of the last 15 weeks after bottoming at 665 on July 17, its lowest level since May 3, 2002, when there were 640 gas rigs operating.

But the rig count is still down sharply since peaking above 1,600 in September of last year, standing at 824 rigs, or 53 percent, below the same week in 2008.

Many gas producers have scaled back drilling operations with credit still tight and natural gas prices around $4 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), off nearly 70 percent from July 2008 highs above $13.

Drumbeat: October 29, 2009


Saudi oil policy not hostage to Iran worries

BEIRUT - Saudi Arabia might seek to brake any new oil price spike, mainly to protect a fragile global economy and prolong its own role as the world’s top oil producer — and if that hurts regional rival Iran, it will shed no tears.

Immediate pressure for Riyadh to use its vast spare capacity to pump more crude has faded somewhat as US crude has dipped back below $80 a barrel, after hitting $82 last week, its highest level this year.

But a Saudi government adviser, who asked not to be named, said the price had reached ‘the high end of our range’ and any further rise could prompt the kingdom to react.

‘Especially now that the global economic system is recovering, we don’t want to be seen as letting the oil price spiral out of control and affecting the recovery,’ he said.