The Oil Drum: Europe | Where's Jess?

Where's Jess?

Posted by Chris Vernon on April 26, 2006 - 4:49pm in The Oil Drum: Europe

Jess isn't the name of my cat but rather the UK government's Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group (JESS).

This organisation was set up in July 2001 by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (OFGEM) to "to assess risks to the UK's future gas and electricity supplies".

Their terms of reference are:

To assess the available data relevant to security of supply, to identify the gaps in that data and develop appropriate indicators;

To monitor at a strategic level, over a timescale of at least seven years ahead:
a) The availability of supplies of gas;
b) The availability of supplies of electricity and fuels used for electricity generation;
c) The adequacy of generating capacity; and
d) The adequacy of the UK's gas and electricity infrastructure;

To assess whether appropriate market-based mechanisms are bringing forward timely investment to address any weaknesses in the supply chain that are anticipated;

To identify relevant policy issues and consider implications;

To report twice yearly to the Secretary of State and the Gas and Electricity Market Authority.

Given the goings on in the UK gas and electricity market over the last couple of years I expect they have been very busy indeed. Their remit nicely covers the supply side of the looming energy gap crisis. Strange then that despite an obligation to deliver twice yearly reports they haven't published anything since November 2004.

There should have been a report published in the spring and autumn of 2005 and another around about now.

I've been chasing them for the autumn 2005 report for some months now, here's a summary of communications:

11th Jan 2006
Could you please either email to me a .pdf or mail me a hard copy of the November 2005 JESS (Joint Energy Security of Supply) report?
11th Jan 2006
Please note that the release of the JESS Report that was due out in November 2005 has been delayed until late February 2006 and will not be be available in hard-copy or for download in PDF format until then.

------------
14th Feb 2006
I am looking for the 2005 JESS report which I was expecting in November, it's now mid-February and the report still isn't available on the DTI website. Could you let me know when this report will be published and the reason for the delay?
14th Feb 2006
Please note that the release of the JESS Report that was due out in November 2005 has been delayed until late February 2006 and will not be be available in hard-copy or for download in PDF format until then.

------------
16th Mar 2006
I have still not received the November 2005 JESS report subsequently delayed to late February. Can you update me on the expected publication date and the reason for the new delay.

17th Mar 2006
Thank you for your e-mail, which has been passed to the DTI Publications Team for reply.
The sixth JESS report has been delayed due to pressure of work. Subject to clearance by DTI Ministers and OFGEM, it should be published by the end of this month.

Two members of PowerSwitch have also been following this up and have recently received the following:

The sixth JESS report has been delayed due to pressure of work. Subject to clearance by DTI Ministers and OFGEM, it should be published by mid to end of May.

------------
20th Apr 2006
We were promised a JESS report last November, then it was February, then March, still no sign of it appearing. What has happened?
21st Apr 2006
You are quite right that we had been intending to publish the next JESS report earlier in 2006 than has come to pass. The report is in a final draft state and is merely awaiting clearance at Ministerial and Ofgem Board level (which has taken rather longer than I had anticipated). I expect to be able to publish in next few days - I'll send you a notification by e-mail as soon as I have done so.
Steve Davies, JESS Secretariat

So what's going on?

My suspicions, although I can't substantiate them are that the report was drafted before the winter and it came to the worrying conclusion that things might be tight (as suggested August last year). This isn't the kind of news that gets published lightly and it would have been in disagreement with Ofgem's own winter outlook report. It wasn't published.

For the last few months the draft report has been sitting on the desks of the Energy Minister and Ofgem director whilst they wonder what to do about it. The seven year electricity supply outlook probably has a difficult graph showing nuclear and coal generation decline through decommission with the slack being picked up by new gas. The difficulty being due to the pervious graph having shown rapid decline of indigenous gas extraction. This is not dissimilar to what the 2004 report said except that North Sea gas has declined somewhat quicker than imagined in 2004, we are closer to the problem now and the harder we look at just where the expected imports are going to come from the more unconvincing they appear.

As we get closer to the Energy Consultation publication date I expect the sixth JESS report might get swallowed up in the new energy white paper and forgotten.

It is a shame that as we enter this era of difficulty, the public bodies whose job it is to carry out the kind of analysis that we need to see, fall silent. How can the market-based approach the government seems so determined to pursue function in absence of the information organisations like JESS were created to provide?

Where's Jess?

PDF version

11 comments

Essex Land Rover Man on April 27, 2006 - 1:49am Permalink | Comments top

Why am I surprised by the responses you have had? This is a typical English Bureaucratic attitude. So long as there is no real consequences to what is published, they will, but as soon as it becomes important and lots of people will refer to the published documents for guidance etc, they become very shy and refuse to put anything on paper. Typical cowardice from the Civil Service. It should be shut down or someone with the balls should take charge of the unit to make decisions. This department was obviously formed for any easy life for a bunch of eunuch civil servants, not to make critical decisions for the nation.

haggisbasher on April 27, 2006 - 2:11am Permalink | Comments top

Being of a suspicious nature, I suspect the goverment do not wish any more bad news prior to the local elections. Either that or the penny has finally dropped and they have no idea how to handle it.

Essex Land Rover Man on April 27, 2006 - 2:24am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Yes, forgot about that point. After yesterday's main news stories, Labour need this like a hole in the head.

Jamie on April 27, 2006 - 10:03am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Spot on, both counts IMHO. I think the second comment also applies to the US. Owning up to knowing about it raises too many politically unanswerable questions of the "if you knew why didn't you do something about it" type. In the UK see the scandalous lack of NG storage largely caused by a planning system that ministers would not override in the clear national interest. This is where you really get the circle - if the national interest is clear enough to do something about it then you know and if you knew... - refer to earlier comment.

mididoctors on April 28, 2006 - 11:37am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

this sort of analysis should be outside of political control and be transparent..

they did it for the bank of england...

Jamie on April 27, 2006 - 10:14am Permalink | Comments top

There may be a clue in this transcript of a PE lesson believed at the time to come from one of the less reformed British public (private for any of our US collegues) schools:
Master: Now boys if you wish to keep warm in these cold winters you must jump when I tell you
EU school children: How high Mr P?

doctorbob on April 27, 2006 - 10:30am Permalink | Comments top

Maybe the plan is to sit on it until after the energy policy review. Most likely the current version of the report from JESS is either:
a) totally implausible in its assumptions about where gas will come from, how much of it there will be, the price, etc., or:
b) shows the lights going out in January if we get another cold winter.

A skeptic might argue it will be used to show that we must have a new fleet of 20 nuke stations to keep the lights on - even though it will take 15 years to build them.

peakhasarrived on April 28, 2006 - 2:40am Permalink | Comments top

I was trying to find the quote of Machiavelli where he says that the ruler should at certain times keep the ruled in a state of deception.

I couldnt find that but I found some other interesting ones which are loosely related. Hope they are not too many, if they are, I apologize.

"Politics have no relation to morals."

"Men are so simple and yield so readily to the desires of the moment that he who will trick will always find another who will suffer to be tricked."

"Men are so simple and so much inclined to obey immediate needs that a deceiver will never lack victims for his deceptions"

"And if, to be sure, sometimes you need to conceal a fact with words, do it in such a way that it does not become known, or, if it does become known, that you have a ready and quick defense"

"A prince must imitate the fox and the lion, for the lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves. Those that wish to be only lions do not understand this. Therefore, a prudent ruler ought not to keep faith when by so doing it would be against his interest, and when the reasons which made him bind himself no longer exist. If men were all good, this precept would not be a good one; but as they are bad, and would not observe their faith with you, so you are not bound to keep faith with them."

"The new ruler must determine all the injuries that he will need to inflict. He must inflict them once and for all."

PaulusP on April 28, 2006 - 7:48am Permalink | Comments top

One of the first things I learned in regard to PO is that we should not count on governments to safe us from the inevitable energy crises.
Every household here in Holland is getting Euro 52 to "compensate" for higher energy costs (energy bills up Euro 200+ this year). You see, we have elections coming up next year. The empty promises have started to fly around early this time.

Like last time the government agreed to close our last nuclear plant in 2013 and made this goal official policy. Guess what? It will not be closed before 2033.

I'm pretty sure some people in key places are well aware of our energy predicament. I sea PV and windgenerators on strategic places. Like the massive battery of solarcells on the buildings of the Navy Air Base "De Kooy" here in Den Helder, two large windmills next to the key sluice, also here in Den Helder, which is necessary for ground water level control (i.e. to keep our feet dry), and next to the sealock. Nearly all sealocks and sluices have a windenergy back up. Likewise the back up of all the big refineries near Rotterdam by large windturbines (though the location also excludes any possible NIMBY reaction).

biffvernon on April 28, 2006 - 8:17am Permalink | Comments top

I am now told by the JESS secretariat that the Report WILL (their emphasis) be published next week. Watch this spot.

biffvernon on May 5, 2006 - 6:39am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Well, despite the JESS Secretariat's firm statement, the Report was not published. I have now been told that,

"Contrary to the information I had last Friday (or indeed for most of this week), we are now going to coordinate the JESS report publication with the release of two other statements from the Minister. This was trailed at DTI questions in Parliament yesterday"

Hansard reported it thus:

7. Mr. Mark Lancaster (North-East Milton Keynes) (Con): If he will make a statement on the current and future diversity of the UK's energy supply. [67728]
The Minister for Energy (Malcolm Wicks): Securing reliable supplies of energy in the medium and long term is one of the key considerations of the Government's energy review, which I am leading, that will report to my Secretary of State and the Prime Minister in the early summer. Details on the diversity of the UK's energy supply will be contained in the latest report by the joint energy security of supply working group, which, I am pleased to tell the House, will be published next week. In addition, I will make written statements to the House soon about the past winter's experience and on the key issue of planning needs for new gas import and storage infrastructure.