BBC: Driven by Oil

This is just a quick reminder that the BBC will start broadcasting their major new four part radio documentary on oil this week.

Introduction: Driven by oil.

Driven by Oil will be broadcast on Radio 4 on Mondays, at 0900 BST and 2130BST, from 4 September 2006 onward.

Part one, "When Will The Tap Run Dry?" asks will we run out of oil, and, if so, when?

Part two, "The China Syndrome" considers the huge influence emerging economies such as China and India will exert on the oil industry and world politics. Will the West come into conflict with these new consumers, and will power increasingly fall into the hands of less democratic regimes?

Weeks three and four consider Oil Terrorism and Alternatives. From the trailers that have been airing last week it sounds like peak oil will be addressed directly.

The documentary is the work of Tom Mangold, an investigative reporter and war correspondent who's been (non-exclusively) with the BBC since 1964.

I expect something like a million people will catch it either on the morning on evening broadcast and the programme will also be available over the Internet.

According to the BBC website you gave a link to, Daniel Yergin, of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, is to be classed as one of the "so-called petro-pessimists". This will come as a surprise to most TOD readers.
You can listen to the streaming audio at BBC Radio 4's website.
Hello newposter here
just a quick post to say hello to everyone.
i am a longtime lurker at TOD and have decided to attempt to become more involved. Hopefully i can add something useful to the debate, and if nothing else help swell the numbers here at UKTOD.
TOD is getting a little bit like hard work lately, the posts are hard to keep up with due to the length of the debates so I am trying to wean myself off.Also i am sure my employers would appreciate my not visiting there so much :)
As UKTOD does not have an open thread, can i ask a question here please?
I am currently reading Michael Meacher's speaches and articles related to PO and would like to know which other, if any other english MP's are currently PO aware and are worth looking at.
regards
dave
John Hemming (Lib) is very much PO aware and posts regularly at
www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/

He has an Early Day Motion active at parliament calling attention to PO.
It has been signed by 22 MPs (too lazy to find the link to the list) including
Lembit Opic and Meacher  

I e-mailed my local constituency MP to make her aware of the situation -

Message :
"Dear

I would like to draw your attention to the matter of Peak Oil which is
going to a be a problem that affects us all. A good explanation of the
scenario and effects are explained by the attached link. The conclusions
are somewhat lurid but I find it difficult to agree with any them.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I have done a lot of online research and I am of the opinion that Peak
Oil is either occuring now or will be certainly  occuring sometime
within the next ten years. The recent quadrupling in oil prices would
continue as prices per barrel could reach $100/$200 a barrel. The world
would then go into the second great depression- at the moment I don't
believe there is anything that will bring us out of it. As it says on
the website the world's financial system is based on cheap oil and it
may collapse when it realises that oil is running out.

Alternative energy sources are currently nowhere near the level required
to be able to substitute for oil. I don't believe Bio-diesel is an
option as currently the return on energy invested is not good and
besides which the world needs food more than it needs fuel oil. The
Alaksan oil sands also look like an extremely poor substitute.

Would you not agree that problem dwarves all other problems that we are
facing as a country and a planet?

Without Oil & Gas we will not be able to support schools, hospitals, the
elderly , build houses or any of the basic functions that support
civilised life. Without oil I don't think the planet can support
anywhere near the current 6 billion inhabitants. In particular
fertilizer which is produced from Natural Gas is required to support the
current level of population. Ironically Peak Oil may reduce the effects
of global warming by reducing the amount of fossil fuels that we can
burn- although it may make things worse as countries may use coal to
produce petrol with increased emissions until that in turn runs out.

I believe that the Government and Opposition need to get together now to
take action immediately on this issue. Please could you let me know what
you are doing about this extremely grave situation? "

I got a reply saying she was on holiday - but a few weeks later I still hadn't got a reply so I followed up with :

"Any update on this? Since my e-mail a quick search on google news for Peak Oil displays the following headlines:

Peak-oil theory warns tank's almost empty
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20098670-643,00.html
The Australian, Australia - 11 Aug 2006
FORGET pipeline problems in Alaska. The real elephant in the corner is "peak oil". This issue is in the same category as global warming - although there is a division of opinion as to whether or not it's real, it is probably prudent to assume the worse-case option

Crisis Overload: Peak Oil, Peak Grain and Peak Water
http://www.counterbias.com/710.html
CounterBias.com - 4 Aug 2006
... According to Christopher Brodie, a partner at UK-based commodities hedge fund Krom River, this tussle over grain adds a Hobson's choice to the Peak Oil dilemma ...

Peak oil and fragility of global oil supply
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/Navariednews.asp?dismode=article&artid=255999417
Kuwait Times, Kuwait - 13 Aug 2006
... This involves the concept called "Peak Oil"-a shorthand way of describing a critical geological concept that you ignore at your peril. ...

BYE BYE PETROLEUM
http://www.corporatewatch.org.uk/?lid=2714
Corporate Watch News, UK - 17 Aug 2006
...Colin Campbell, honorary chairman of ASPO international, began the conference with a prediction that peak oil would bring a succession of price spikes followed by global recession. He warned that current financial structures would be threatened, as the power to control money shifts, and suggested that a new era of geopolitics would emerge, with energy rich Russia ascending while energy depleted US and Europe compete with China for finite resources...

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=22303
.....In May U.S. production fell 459,000 barrels a day year on year. In May U.K. production fell 292,000 barrels a day. Mexican data saw a 150,000 barrels a day slide and statistics from Norway saw a 226,000 barrel a day fall.
For 2006 as a whole production is down by 196,000 barrels a day in the U.K. and 503,000 barrels a day in the U.S., 229,000 barrels a day in Norway and by 24,000 barrels a day in Mexico.
French company Total [NYSE:TOT] saw production - which may well rise again it is true - fall 9% year on year. BP [NYSE:BP] said it will struggle to meet its targets for 2006, 4.2 million barrels a day despite 1 million barrels a day from its venture with TNK [OTCPK:TNKBF] in Russia. Shell [NYSE:RDS-B] produced more in 2003 than it does now and the only companies who have put on big production outside of Eni [NYSE:E] in Italy have done it by buying other companies, ConocoPhillips [NYSE:COP], Chevron [NYSE:CVX] and so on.......

Those were just a few of the selection.  I see that John Reid suggested that we are facing  "probably the most sustained period of severe threat since the end of the second world war,"  - we are but its Peak Oil that is threatening all of us far more than a handful of Islamic terrorists. Our prosperity, health, wealth and happiness has been based since the end of the nineteenth century on cheap oil - this is about to change and soon.

I see the current Government thinking of this is that Peak Oil is not before 2030. I seriously doubt this - Try somewhere between now and 2011-and in any case China and India's growing demand will ensure an unbridgeable supply gap well before then.
"John Hemming: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what estimate the Department has made of when global production of conventional crude oil will peak.
Malcolm Wicks: The Government's assessment of the remaining lifespan of global oil reserves is set out in the Energy White Paper 2003 "Our energy future--creating a low carbon economy". Paragraph 6.15 of the White Paper notes that "Globally, conventional oil reserves are sufficient to meet projected demand for around 30 years, although new discoveries will be needed to renew reserves. Together with nonconventional reserves such as oil shales and improvements in technology, there is the potential for oil reserves to last twice as long".

This is consistent with the latest assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2004 World Energy Outlook. The IEA concludes that ". . . global production of conventional oil will not peak before 2030 if the necessary investments are made."

The Government remain committed to working with producers, consumers and the international community to improve the conditions for investment in the international oil sector, as well as implementing policies to maximise the economic recovery of the UK's own oil (and gas) reserves and to ease the UK economy away from power supplied primarily through fossil fuel supply. We are also supporting efforts to promote greater transparency in reporting of global oil reserves. "

One further piece of evidence that peak oil appears imminent. There is a website - theoildrum.com where various Geologists try to predict and analyse peak production. One thing they are concerned about is that all of the largest oil producers are starting to show declines

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/21/91043/1416#comments

I thought that it would be interesting to compare the decline since December in world crude + condensate production to the decline in production from the top 10 net oil exporters (based on the 2004 list of top         exporters).

As of the May, 2006 EIA numbers, the world is down 1.3% since December, an annual decline rate of 3.1% per year, but the top 10 oil exporters are down 3.0%, an annual decline rate of 7.2%.

Note that consumption is growing quite rapidly in most of the exporting countries, and note that in most cases domestic consumption is satisfied before oil is exported. In the captioned article, I showed, using my     "Export Land" model, how a 25% drop in oil production and a 20% increase in consumption (over a five year period) would lead to a 70% drop in net oil exports.

I estimate that net oil exports from the top exporters are probably down by 4% to 5% (over a five month period), an annual decline rate of as much as 12% per year, which suggests that exports from the top         exporters are falling about three to four times faster than world oil production is falling

As I have been relentlessly pointing out, I think that we are looking at a series of bidding cycles for declining net oil export capacity, with the oil going to the high bidders and with the losers having to reduce consumption. Leanan, on The Oil Drum, has documented several case histories of poorer countries having to reduce consumption. Soon, the developed and rapidly developing countries will be bidding against each other, instead of bidding against regions like Africa

On a positive note (!) the biggest hopeful are recent development is advances in solar technology:

http://www.energybulletin.net/19262.html
We approach this news as current and former public electric utility executives, sympathetic with consumer and environmental concerns. South Africa and California technologies rely on the same alloy -- called CIGS (for copper-indium-gallium-selenide) -- deposited in an extremely thin layer on a flexible surface. Both companies claim that the technology reduces solar cell production costs by a factor of 4-5. That would bring the cost to or below that of delivered electricity in a large fraction of the world

I believe that it should shortly be mandatory that all new building developments should have as a minimum solar power for hot water tanks, and that by a certain date all new developments should also have photo-voltaic designed into them. Also any houses with gardens should have water butts to try and combat a) flooding and b) drought.

You may note I haven't mentioned global warming - although I think its a serious problem - mainly due to rising sea levels. However given the fact that the effects for the UK tends to along the lines of "Future balmy Mediterranean Climate will lead to more vineyards and olive trees and UK seaside resorts becoming top tourist destination" its not really a vote winner is it?"

Yesterday I got a reply:

"Thank you for your email about 'Peak Oil'; I share your concerns about the future of our oil supply. A broad energy mix with less reliance on oil and gas would be in the best interests of the UK and the global economy.

The Government are currently conducting an energy review to update their 2003 Energy White Paper. As you might be aware, the Conservative Party is also conducting an energy review which will be an evidence-based project. The review will work alongside the Quality of Life Policy Group, set up by David Cameron and affect our environment and the quality of our lives. The energy review will be published early next year and the policy group will report in July 2007. I am more than happy to pass on your points in Consideration as part of the review.

Thank you for taking time to get in touch. It is always important for me to hear the thoughts and views of those whom I represent here in Westminster. Please do not hesitate to get in touch if I can be of any further assistance."

So I would urge all of you to make your local MP aware of this situation if they are not already. I will be following up to my local MP with a document containing some detailed impacts of the likely effect of Peak Oil so that this can be included in the energy review the Tories are currently undertaking.
Thanks for taking the trouble to respond.
I live in Blackpool so I supsect my local MP would be more interested in continuing the yearly tradition of having hundreds of thousands of light bulbs blazing away all night, Blackpool Illuminations. Mine is one of them towns/cities that will struggle post peak, the whole local economy is based on millions people throwing their money away. should be fun
There could be a lot more local tourism though as people stop flying to Greece/Spain etc in their millions.  Wasn't Blackpool a star attraction in the first half of the 20th century?
it was in its heyday...
in years to come who will make the decision to turn the lights out? there could be some interesting and hard decisions to be made post peak.
I would disagree about Blackpool's prognosis- at least the north-west is less heavily populated than the south-east and you wont have the drought conditions that we are experiencing in the south-east.

And with rising temperatures it could become balmy. The post-peak riots may also improve the town no-end.

On a more serious note I would still recommend to contact your MP to point out the gravity of the situation.

I thought that, as a first attempt by the BBC, it covered the subject pretty well - it's tough to explain quite a complex subject in 30 minutes. It was interesting that Tom Mangold said that he didn't want to flood the listener with lots of figures, and it looks like he has deliberately attempted to paint a broad brush picture of the issue. I found the lack of figures disappointing, but then a lot of people switch off when they hear too many numbers.

From memory, some of the key points which weren't but should have been covered in the programme are, that:

* oil is not renewable (seems obvious but it still needs to be stated); * the earth has been searched pretty thoroughly and there's virtually no more 'easy' oil out there waiting to be found and nearly all of what has been found to date is already in production; * flow rates (barrels per day) are what counts first; reserves are only significant if they can be extracted with a net energy gain (physics point below) and turned into flows of oil; * geology (you've got to find it first) and physics (oil in the ground must deliver more energy than it takes to produce it) are, together, more fundamental than economics, technology and geo-politics in determining how much available energy humanity has.

I would predict that the programmes (it's a 4 part series) will avoid leaving the listener with a very negative or hopeless view of things. That seems to be the way that the mainstream media works: there is a tendency to want to re-assure the listener that things will be ok and that problems should be portrayed to provoke concern not fear. The BBC doesn't want to be accused of being 'eco doomsters', after all!

I'll be interested to hear what he has to say about possible solutions. I suspect that he won't mention anything about permaculture, particularly as I don't think he said anything about the implications of peak oil for our food production and supply systems - that would take the listener from concern into fear territory!
I think it was a good start. One of the points raised was an important contribution. Tom was interviewing a peak oil optimist (I forget who it was but I think he was connected with the EIA, in some way) and I think the interviewee had to admit that no-one knows exactly how much recoverable oil there is to be found, so his estimate is no more likely to be accurate than he thinks the pessimists' estimates are. This is a crucial message to get across. Peak might be now or 30 years hence but if it is soon, any delay in preparing for it could be catastrophic. Listening only to the optimists when devising peak oil policies is potential suicide.
Well, I don't know what to say really... a lack of conclusion maybe, it was very balanced. I liked the way the `early toppers' were descried as "oil supply realists" a couple of times. There were many mentions of peak oil and suggestions that relying on new technology is similar to relying on a "miracle", that there isn't anywhere left to explore beyond the ultra-deep water already being developed and that if we manage to postpone peak for a few decades (in ways yet to be identified) we're still left with a demand problem as the majority world industrialises and population increases.

On balance the programme suggests there's a very real chance we could have a problem but we just don't know. The very fact we don't know should be a concern.

Part two, "The China Syndrome" - A Review

Iran, Venezuela, Russia, all in Tom Mangold's view despotic anti-western powers made more powerful by having their own oil and gas. China a big despotic regime competing ruthlessly to grab their own supplies - supporting and encouraging further despotic regimes.

The US, having had to make "deals with the devil" (ie Saudia Arabia) in order to secure it's own supplies.

I have to disagree with almost all the political analysis. The US has a long history of trying to bring down democratically elected (left wing) governments and propping up dictatorships. Who actually supported Saddam before he invaded Kuwait (with perhaps what was a reasonable historical claim)? Britain and the US illegally invaded Iraq destroying our international credibility. Discounting allied war crimes the main charge to stick at the Nuremburg War Trials was that of aggressively invading neighbouring countries, ie the same crime the US and Britain are guilty of in Iraq. (using uranium tipped shells, cluster bombs, napalm, random shootings and aerial bombing with massive civilian casualties).

In terms of oil consumption, pre-emptive attacks on other countries, manipulation of the IMF and World Bank,  disregard for Kyoto, the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the UN, the Geneva Convention the US is clearly the "devil".

I'm sure Chavez would say he has nothing against the American people, just the greedy system that keeps the top few people wealthy, while the middle classes shrink and the numbers of poor and desperately poor increase.

The US is on the point of becoming bankrupt, supported currently by China's desire not to lose the biggest market for it's goods. The US's creditors could pull the plug at any time, or a slight increase in the cost of oil could bring it's economy crashing down, and the rest of the World with it.

Only the disasters unfolding in Iraq and Afganistan and the failed invasion of Lebanon by Israel has meant that the US/Israeli military machine has not yet invaded Iran, which was part of the plan.

The fact that Iran feels so threatened by US noise (very similar to the lies and propaganda prior to the invasion of Iraq) has created support for a hard line Iranian government. The problems are not due to China's involvement. In fact China's support for Iran may prevent Iran from being invaded; that and the brave and professional performance of Hizbollah in the defence of Lebanon, together with the threat of a  more immediate "oil shock".

The US should have learned that you cannot create democracy with the gun, and that if many people have democracy they will vote for systems which the US does not like. They should have learned that powerful armed forces alone will not guarantee any sort of victory, and that the World's biggest army cannot even defeat a population of a few million (the Sunni's in Iraq).

China has done more than any other country to try to bring it's people out of poverty. True, it's industrialisation is a threat to "cheap oil" and the environment, however it is the US which currently and historically uses oil the most wastefully, wreaking the most damage to the sustainability of life on this planet.

They could of course benefit themselves and the World by being more frugal with oil, and they stand to gain the most by becoming the world's largest investor in the development of alternative technologies. Bush has ruthlessly supported "Big Oil", but both he and "them" will come to realise that the biggest threat to the western way of life is not terrorism, but it is "Peak Oil".

Let's just hope that the US can see more than just military solutions, because in a few years time China will be more than a match for them!