The Oil Drum

It is a beautiful day outside, one of the crisp days of Winter where it becomes a pleasant chore to restock the wood pile near the house. Soon we will begin to tidy up the yard, and Spring will be here and plans are already made for trips and travel through the summer. Somehow in this planning, even though we know of the problems that are coming with energy supply, it doesn’t factor much into the plans that are made. There is a complacency of thought that says that things will continue, much as they are, and certainly in the discussions from the political contenders there is little concern expressed for dramatic change in the security of supply, or even the volume of that supply, within the near term.

As I mentioned last week, I have been giving talks that include a component of the coming problem outside of the small circle of our campus and moving out to the service clubs, and the occasional larger conference gathering. I largely dwell on the problems of oil and gas supply and the inadequacy of our being able to make up shortfalls in these with solar and wind, or even ethanol, because of the scale of the problem and the nature of the coming liquid fuels shortages. The talks seem to go over quite well, I even get the odd request for copies – but I strongly suspect that the audience, in very large part, quickly moves their attention to the next item on the agenda, and that within a week the topic is far back in their memories. I mention this because in many ways I think my small experience mirrors to a degree what we see on a much larger scale when folk like Matt Simmons give the more detailed, and skilled presentations that he provides. There is no experience of significant personal impact that causes the problem to seem immediate to many of the audience.

A short while ago I wrote about my concerns that, with a growing drum roll of articles decrying the use of coal, we might find ourselves short of power, at a time when we have a real need. The tone of articles written about the mining industry are virtually all negative, with very few counter-arguments being made to demur at the emotive tone of the language used in writing about this subject. The thought returned today as I read the article in the Guardian that Leanan had highlighted in Wednesday’s Drumbeat. The piece, by George Monbiot, bemoans the creation of a new surface mine in Wales.

As I watched the machine scraping away the first buckets of soil, one thought kept clanging through my head: "If this is allowed to happen, we might as well give up now." It didn't look like much: just a yellow digger and a couple of trucks taking the earth away. But in a secure compound behind me were the heaviest beasts I have ever seen - 1,300 horsepower or more - lined up and ready to start digging one of the largest opencast coal mines in Europe. In Romania perhaps? The Czech Republic? No, on a hilltop in south Wales.

I am thinking of calling this the Marie Antoinette Syndrome – she of the “let them eat cake,” quotation. Because there is a reality to life that seems to be beyond the comprehension of writers of this ilk. George Monbiot refers to the opening of the mine as being a sign of a “re-entry into the coal age,” but we never left it. Coal has been, and is, used extensively around the world as a fuel source, and in the United States produces more than half the electricity consumed. It is one of the cheapest (in straight dollars per kWh) sources of power for a utility. Solar is currently about five times as expensive as coal power. Further the coal in place in the UK, even if not at the moment a reserve, still totals more than 45 billion tons .

We are very rapidly approaching the point where world oil production will likely peak and then start to decline. The quantities of fuel that will have to be found to replace this gap are not likely to be found in the occasional wind farm, dotted over the landscape, nor in solar panels on the roofs of very profitable corporations. The alternatives to letting the populace “freeze in the dark” are starkly limited. A significant amount of that power will likely have to come from coal, for a number of different reasons.