Recently, Rune Likvern wrote a post talking about the possibility of a natural gas shortage in the United Kingdom, possibly as soon as February or March 2009. Rune isn't the only one worried about the supply of gas in Europe and the UK. A little over a year ago, Euan Mearns wrote two posts about the European natural gas supply, the first called European Natural Gas and a follow-up addendum called Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas? In this post, we combine the two posts and re-run them. Besides being relevant to the gas shortage issue, the posts also provide some additional background related to current Russian/Ukrainian dispute.

OECD European gas production looks set to peak in 2008. After that, falling production combined with rising demand will see OECD European gas imports wanting to rise from current 197 BCM per annum to 442 BCM per annum by 2020. Where will this gas come from and how will rising European imports affect N America and the rest of the world?

Figure 1 OECD Europe gas production and conceptual forecast. Click all charts to enlarge