The Oil Drum

It is a beautiful day outside, one of the crisp days of Winter where it becomes a pleasant chore to restock the wood pile near the house. Soon we will begin to tidy up the yard, and Spring will be here and plans are already made for trips and travel through the summer. Somehow in this planning, even though we know of the problems that are coming with energy supply, it doesn’t factor much into the plans that are made. There is a complacency of thought that says that things will continue, much as they are, and certainly in the discussions from the political contenders there is little concern expressed for dramatic change in the security of supply, or even the volume of that supply, within the near term.

As I mentioned last week, I have been giving talks that include a component of the coming problem outside of the small circle of our campus and moving out to the service clubs, and the occasional larger conference gathering. I largely dwell on the problems of oil and gas supply and the inadequacy of our being able to make up shortfalls in these with solar and wind, or even ethanol, because of the scale of the problem and the nature of the coming liquid fuels shortages. The talks seem to go over quite well, I even get the odd request for copies – but I strongly suspect that the audience, in very large part, quickly moves their attention to the next item on the agenda, and that within a week the topic is far back in their memories. I mention this because in many ways I think my small experience mirrors to a degree what we see on a much larger scale when folk like Matt Simmons give the more detailed, and skilled presentations that he provides. There is no experience of significant personal impact that causes the problem to seem immediate to many of the audience.

Well, just in case you thought that the worsening tropical storm situation was confined to the US Gulf, we have another warning that this year might continue with the same intensity that has already been suggested by the storms hitting Australia. Now there is this.

Typhoon Chanchu, which means "pearl" in Chinese, was about 600 kilometers (372 miles) south of Hong Kong early Tuesday, the observatory said. It was moving at 16 kph (10 mph) and packing maximum sustained winds of 170 kph (105 mph), the observatory said.

Chanchu was the strongest typhoon on record to enter the South China Sea in May, the observatory said.

The storm roared towards Hong Kong after whirling over the Philippines last weekend, killing at least 37 people and leaving thousands homeless..