The Oil Drum

I have recently been writing about Botswana, and their sudden discovery of vulnerability when they found that their supply of electricity was no longer to be available. There is a passage in Cape Wind, the book by Wendy Williams and Robert Whitcomb, that shows the increasing vulnerability of places such as New England as the balance that exists between available supply and demand narrows. The event occurred in mid January 2004 when there was a sudden cold spell that lasted over a week, and the story is told from the point of view of the Independent System Operator (ISO) that manages the supply for some 14 million folk, and is located in Holyoke, MA.

On January 14th the ISO had assurances that up to 10,000 megawatts would be available from gas-fired power plants as they anticipated demand rising to around 23,000 to 25,000 megawatts, as the temperature was anticipated to drop to minus ten degrees. But by 8:30 am on the first morning of the crisis, this began to change:

A trickle of phone calls began coming in to the Holyoke headquarters, all with pretty much the same bad news. Plant operators who relied on natural gas as their fuel reported that although their plants were in working order, there was no gas available for them to buy. It had all been taken by the companies responsible for providing gas for home heating.

By afternoon the trickle of “no gas” calls became a flood. . . . .During this all-time winter peak, when electricity was essential for the very survival of many New Englanders, roughly 7,200 megawatts of gas-fired generation was now unavailable. . . . .because they couldn’t find enough natural gas to buy.”

In the end crisis was averted by some load shedding, including closing the schools, but it illustrates the coming vulnerabilities that we face as our historic assumption that there will be enough power when we need it, suddenly starts to be significantly challenged. However, in this case, action was taken, and things no longer look as grim.

The ongoing energy supply problems that have emerged from continued growth of the economies of Southern Africa, and which I wrote about following my trip down there, may well be an early precursor to a future that many countries might come to face before too long. Signs that overall energy demands have been rising beyond the immediate capacity of local systems to provide supply can be transiently overcome by increasing imports of power. But when the supply of that power becomes threatened, or disappears due to factors that can range from the increasing domestic demand for power – which led South Africa to restrict exports – through the collapse of domestic order – the problems that Zimbabwe currently faces, or the inability to deliver available power (Mozambique has large hydro power reserves but cannot transmit the power to places such as Botswana) then suddenly the switches on the wall don’t work.

There are lots of excuses why not to make investments in new power plants based on domestically produced energy, particularly in a changing political climate, but the failure to properly prepare for the future by building anticipated capacity, or to assume the availability of foreign supply sources (such as increased volumes of LNG) that may not be around when needed may well mean that at some point in the non-too-distant future the switches on our walls may not work either.

It is a beautiful day outside, one of the crisp days of Winter where it becomes a pleasant chore to restock the wood pile near the house. Soon we will begin to tidy up the yard, and Spring will be here and plans are already made for trips and travel through the summer. Somehow in this planning, even though we know of the problems that are coming with energy supply, it doesn’t factor much into the plans that are made. There is a complacency of thought that says that things will continue, much as they are, and certainly in the discussions from the political contenders there is little concern expressed for dramatic change in the security of supply, or even the volume of that supply, within the near term.

As I mentioned last week, I have been giving talks that include a component of the coming problem outside of the small circle of our campus and moving out to the service clubs, and the occasional larger conference gathering. I largely dwell on the problems of oil and gas supply and the inadequacy of our being able to make up shortfalls in these with solar and wind, or even ethanol, because of the scale of the problem and the nature of the coming liquid fuels shortages. The talks seem to go over quite well, I even get the odd request for copies – but I strongly suspect that the audience, in very large part, quickly moves their attention to the next item on the agenda, and that within a week the topic is far back in their memories. I mention this because in many ways I think my small experience mirrors to a degree what we see on a much larger scale when folk like Matt Simmons give the more detailed, and skilled presentations that he provides. There is no experience of significant personal impact that causes the problem to seem immediate to many of the audience.