The Oil Drum

The habit of bargaining has become so engrained that statements of shortage are quite commonly read as bargaining positions leading to a price hike, rather than that you literally can’t have any. But we are now in a time when the reality of growing shortages, and in more than just crude oil, is going to start imposing such a disconcerting awareness.

I was in Botswana the other week, and in two earlier posts I had mentioned the problems that that country suddenly encountered when the source for 75% of its electric power – Eskom of South Africa – started to use it as a load-sheddable part of its distribution chain. It has since given Botswana the amounts that it can expect over the next four years. From a supply of 410 MW in 2007; it will get 350 MW in 2008; 250 MW in 2009; and 150 MW in 2010 through 2012. While the country has in-house generation, it decided some time ago that it was less costly to import power than to increase internal supply. Now it will take some time to create that internal power, from coal, of which the country has a more than adequate supply. The expansion of the current plant, already in process, will not occur until 2010 , and was planned to only add 120 MW, less by then, than the lost imports. And current growth in demand has been at 5.6% per annum. It does not help that:

It has also emerged that at the beginning of this year, the desperate BPC signed a no guarantees contract that allows Eskom to cut power supplies to Botswana within as little as ten minutes notice.

Flying into Gaborone, the capital, from Johannesburg, after reading the articles that had lead to the earlier pieces, I had expected to see that there would be some impact on behavior. But, crossing the veldt, there were lace points of light that reached out as long as I could see the ground. Once landed the streets were lit, and gas stations were running normally (at about $1 a liter). Going into meetings the following morning, it seemed to have been, at that scale, an irritant. We continued to meet, and then the lights went out, and the air conditioner shut off.