Matt Mushalik from Australia was good enough to send me this graph of world oil exports, calculated from new oil data provided by the EIA.

Figure 1. World net exports, based on EIA data

This inspired me to put together a few other somewhat related graphs, relating to oil exports and US imports. Since Canada is such a tiny piece of world exports, but seems to be mentioned as a possible major source of future US imports, I have looked at it separately as well.

The likelihood of a huge ramp up in imports from Canada seems remote. Canadian exports to the US require continued imports to the East Coast of Canada. If imports of oil to Canada decline as world exports decline, US oil imports from Canada may also decline, because ramped up production from oil sands may not be enough to offset declines in production and imports elsewhere.

When the weather in the mid-West gets hot and humid, as it does at this time of year, it is pleasant to have the chance to head up to Maine, (along I might note with two solid streams of traffic from Boston all the way North). Thus it was that I could get up, this morning, and pick fresh raspberries for breakfast from the bush outside the window. Raspberries are, like cherries, one of the transient crops that one savors each year when they are in season and then waits until they appear on the bush again next year.

In this way they are a food resource when they grow, but if we don’t put additional work into their condition, they cannot be considered as a reserve for the longer haul. Unless that is, we are willing to make the time and money investment, by canning them, or making them into jam, they don’t count much toward the family food reserve (and note that I have, in the past, helped make raspberry jam).

The difference between a reserve and a resource is a relatively important distinction that often gets overlooked in the debate about our energy future. Some sources of energy are fairly easy to describe and to understand. Place a wind turbine in an area with a recognized wind pattern, or a solar collector array in the American South-West, and we can run tabulated data through simple calculations to understand the value of the returning energy on the initial investment. It is however, the amount of heavy oil that can be justified as a reserve volume that drives today’s post, and with very heavy oil we have to go the other way - in other words turn the consistency from something closer to jam back into something closer to juice.

I had thought that the short thread that has run through my last few posts – relating to the imminence of a fuels crisis, and the lack of political perception of the problem, had run out. And then I read the piece from Salon that threadbot had as the top story on Drumbeat on Sunday. Taken with a conversation that I had with the Nurse (who lives in Ottawa) today, it led me to this additional comment. And to put that in context, for those who live further South, while Ottawa might get about 100 inches (250 cm) of snow in a normal winter, this year it has had more than 166 inches (421 cm) and the snows are not over. Part of the reason that I bring this up, in context of the Salon article, was the line in that article that said (and I recognize that I am taking it a little out of context)

And for that only one alternative fuel is even remotely plausible -- carbon-free electricity. And my tiny mind asks, where, with a 20-inch (50 cm) snowstorm does one find this source to supply a city of 1,148,800 inhabitants in the short term.

Apropos of yesterday's gas tax report and discussion, today we bring you Alan Drake's ideas on post-peak mitigation. Alan is an engineer, former accountant, and professional researcher based in New Orleans with best hopes for many. Alan would also like to thank the lovely and talented Wendi Berman for her editing skills and assistance.

Many proponents for public spending on Post-Peak Oil mitigation are attracted to gasoline and diesel taxes or more generic oil and/or carbon taxes. In an era of rapidly increasing oil (and all other energy) prices, passing such taxes will be politically difficult and take precious time.

I would like to propose an alternative tax for Phase I of Peak Oil mitigation that adheres to Sen. Russell Long’s famous dictum “Don’t tax you, don’t tax me, let’s tax that fellow behind the tree!”

World Trade Organization (WTO) rules allow for a specific exemption that will allow the United States of America to impose a non-discriminatory tariff (it applies to all goods and taxable services, with a specific exemption for essential goods) if the funds raised are used to reduce our structural trade deficit, i.e. our oil consumption.

Specifically, the WTO allows nations with a structural balance of trade deficit (which the USA certainly has) to apply a non-discriminatory tariff if the funds from that tariff are used to reduce the structural trade deficit (which reducing oil use certainly would do). A separate section of the WTO treaty allows the importing nation to exempt “essential” goods.

In 2006, the USA imported $1.861 trillion in goods (and exported $1.023 trillion). This allows for significant revenues from a small percent tariff.