Stories tagged with "cera"

Time and the Latest CERA Report: Why 2030 for the Peak?

Posted by Heading Out on November 18, 2009 - 10:21am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: cera, oil production, peak oil [list all tags]

One of the features of many models that are used to predict future events is that they focus on target years. Decadal years are the most common target years, so that whether talking of climate or the amount of oil or natural gas available, models focus on, for example, the amount that will be available in 2030. The problem with this approach is that it leaves the public to think that a problem is not yet serious. For example if the prediction is that the production of oil will only be 75 mbd, in 2030 then there is an implication that until 2030 that the situation will remain fine.

However the world does not reach those levels by continuing in the business as usual mode for the next 21 years, and then suddenly have production drop off a cliff one Friday night. Rather it is a problem that inexorably will grow, year on year, between now and then. I was struck by this thought as I looked through the latest comments from CERA/IHS on their view of the future of oil supply. Their view, as we have come to expect, is an optimistic one, and though we are not still living in the days of $30 oil that they had, at one time predicted, it is worth looking into so as to provide some explanation of the difference between their view and mine.

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World Oil Production Peaked in 2008

Posted by ace on March 17, 2009 - 9:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: aspo, cera, colin campbell, exxonmobil, fredrik robelius, iea, jean laherrère, non-opec, oil production forecast, opec, original, peak oil, total liquids, usgs [list all tags]

As everyone knows, there is never a post on The Oil Drum that the entire staff agrees on. Nonetheless, Tony bases his findings on solid research, and a staff survey shows that most agree with a 2008 peak. A post discussing whether an alternate scenario with a second later peak might be feasible is planned for later.

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.


World Oil Production to 2012 - click to enlarge

Sources for historical data: world crude and condensate (EIA) but with oil sands excluded, oil sands (CAPP), and world natural gas liquids (EIA).

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The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates

Posted by Euan Mearns on November 17, 2008 - 3:06pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: cera, decline rate, iea, original, weo 2008 [list all tags]

Report authors: Euan Mearns, Samuel Foucher and Rembrandt Koppelaar



This chart is from a section of the IEA publications called key graphs and appears in Chapter 11, p250 as Figure 11.1.

Chapter 10, p 243 of IEA WEO 2008 says this:

On this basis, we estimate that the average observed decline rate worldwide is 6.7%. Were that rate applied to 2007 crude oil production the annual loss of output would be 4.7mmbpd.

So it seems reasonable to expect the decline rate on currently producing fields shown above should be 6.7%. Not so. The decline rate in the chart above seems to be much closer to 4%. So what's going on here? There's more below the fold.

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Countdown to $200 oil (12) - betting on Yergin

Posted by Jerome a Paris on November 11, 2008 - 5:46pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: $100 oil, $200 oil, cera, daniel yergin, original [list all tags]

It's been a while since I did a Countdown diary - no wonder, given that oil is now below $60, ie at the same level as when I started the initial "Countdown to $100 oil" series back in 2005...

While the $200 target looks to be some ways off right now, given the expectations of a massive global downturn, the mechanism that has been pushing prices down is the same one that had been pushing prices up in the first part of the year. As I explained in this recent opus of the series: it's the marginal cost of demand destruction that matters, rather than the marginal cost of production. Demand was driving prices up when it was strong, and it is now driving prices down just as brutally by crumbling just as spectacularly (whether directly, finally, because of high prices, or indirectly via the economic crunch).

But we now, unexpectedly, have a strong "buy" signal again: an article by CERA's Daniel Yergin telling us that current prices are justified.

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ASPO-USA Sacramento - a Comment

Posted by Heading Out on October 5, 2008 - 10:50am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, climate change, coal, ihs energy, natural gas, original, peak oil [list all tags]

This is the post where I try and draw my own conclusions from the Conference. And not recognizing many of the papers in this does not mean that they weren’t important, but rather that from my own perspective that this is what I got most from.

The recurrent word that cropped up, again and again, was Scale. It was an attempt by the speakers to try and convey to their audience the size of the problem that is coming at us, increasingly rapidly. That one word encapsulates the difference between those who talk of the world energy problem in Quads (quadrillion Btu’s), as opposed to those that talk of the solution in terms of kilowatts and Megawatts. (The handy Dashboard on my Mac tells me that a Megawatt is 56,869 Btus/min. A Quad is 1,000,000,000,000,000 Btu.) The current shortages of gasoline are largely brought about by a transient closure of refineries that affects around 1 mbd of oil supply. The time is not far distant when such shortages will become more regular as we compete for supply in a more competitive global market.

The tipping point that seemed still a comfortable distance away three years ago when the American ASPO meetings began in Denver, is now just about here. And the solutions that have been discussed do not approach, as yet, the millions of barrels a day (mbd) of fuel replacement that we may need before long. At the same time, to return to the theme of my own paper, we do not have the educated human resource that we need. Data from my Dean of Enrollment shows that ACT report national high school student interest in engineering was at 14% in 1982. By 1992 it had dropped to 9%. By 2005 it was down to 5%, and has fallen below that since.

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Peak Oil Overview - June 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)

Posted by Gail the Actuary on June 26, 2008 - 3:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, eia, eor, fsu, introduction, oil reserves, opec, original, overview, peak oil, peak oil presentation [list all tags]

This is an update of my Peak Oil Overview at March '08. The major changes since my earlier post are the recent apparent decline in Russian production, the new ASPO peak oil projection, and discussion of the recent consumer producer summit in Saudi Arabia (slide 14). I also mention the expected change in IEA's November 2008 forecast of world production.

This is a summary of the peak oil story at June 2008. The major themes of this presentation are

• The US oil story
• The world oil story
• Five myths

I have put this summary together in the format of a PowerPoint presentation plus notes. In this format, it is a multi-purpose document. You can

1. Read the post yourself, with or without my comments.

2. Use the presentation (PDF) as a handout, to give to one or two of your friends. My comments are intended to give you some more background, so you can better explain the presentation and answer questions.

3. Use the presentation for a group, using the PowerPoint format.

The PDF version of this presentation is available here. The PowerPoint version is available here.

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Why oil costs over $120 per barrel

Posted by Euan Mearns on May 30, 2008 - 9:44am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: cera, declines, demand, energy density, iea, megaprojects, net energy, oil prices, opec, peak exports, peter jackson, spare capacity, supply [list all tags]

(New readers, click "there's more" below for the whole article...)




Global Total Liquids production and oil price, January 2002 to present. Production data from the IEA, data files supplied by Rembrandt Koppelaar. Monthly average WTI oil prices from Economagic.

With oil reaching $135 / barrel, Oil Drum readership exceeding 30,000 unique visitors per day and many wild stories circulating in the MSM as to why oil prices are so high this post strives to explain why oil prices are rising exponentially:

• Supply and demand
• Decline of older fields
• Declining net energy and energy density
• New mega-projects
• OPEC spare capacity
• Peak exports

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POLL: Oil Breaks $127, Now What?

Posted by Prof. Goose on May 18, 2008 - 9:59am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: cera, poll [list all tags]

In our last poll on 16 APR (and here's the old accompanying comment thread), 42% of you predicted that CL would hit $127 in the front month before it hit $103. Yep, we've passed it today, though we closed below it. Oil has risen from $115 to $127 (~10%) in a month.

This is the comment thread for the poll, offer your conjecture and reasoning here...the actual poll itself is at this link.

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What would $120 oil mean for the global economy?

Posted by Chris Vernon on May 11, 2008 - 7:15pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: cera, economy, oil prices, recession, wescott [list all tags]

The pdf is a short report written by Robert F. Wescott and published in April 2006 by Securing America’s Future Energy. It was written when oil was ~$60 a barrel and addressed a scenario where the price of oil surged to $120 due to coordinated terrorist attacks on global oil transport infrastructure. Well, here we are, two years on at $120 oil (without the attacks) so it’s worth revisiting the analysis in light of the conclusion:

The main conclusion of this note is that $120 oil would have profound negative effects on the world economy and global financial markets.
...

Such oil prices would almost certainly precipitate a global recession.


Click to download pdf
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Happy Third Yergin Day: A Poll

Posted by Prof. Goose on April 16, 2008 - 9:50am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, poll, three yergins sure is a lot of yergins [list all tags]

In our last poll on 5 MAR (and here's the accompanying comment thread), 43% of you predicted that CL would hit $115 in the front month. We've passed it, but we haven't closed at it yet.

Either way, I thought a new poll was in order to celebrate Three Yergin Day. This is the comment thread, the poll is in the link below.

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