Stories tagged with "colin campbell"

Comments on Scientific American's "Squeezing more oil from the ground"

This article, put together by Jean Laherrère and edited by Colin Campbell, is a critical review of the recent article by Leonardo Maugeri published by Scientific American.

A decade ago, Scientific American published the seminal article by these two luminaries of the Peak Oil awareness movement, that relaunched the debate on M. King Hubbert's finds, Scientific American appears now as a completely different publication. Now, however, scientific content doesn't seem to be a requisite for its articles. Among other eerie details, Leonardo Maugeri goes as far as citing "Common Wisdom" to present erroneous facts.

World Oil Production Forecast - Update May 2009

World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.82 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 71 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline slowly to about December 2010 as OPEC production increases while non-OPEC production decreases. After 2010 the resulting annual production decline rate increases to 3.4% as OPEC production is unable to offset cumulative non-OPEC declines. The forecast from the IEA WEO 2008 is also shown for comparison.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production now to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative renewable energy sources.

Fig 1 - World Oil Production to 2012 - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate and oil sands)

Interview with Colin Campbell

Photojournalist Neil Jackson has recently conducted an interview with Dr. Colin Campbell, founder and Honorary Chairman of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). The interview is reproduced here in full.

Neil Jackson: Why is peak oil important?

Colin Campbell: Peak Oil is a turning point for mankind. It is a big subject.

In short, the population only doubled over the first 17 centuries of the last millennium. But then came coal followed by oil and gas, and the population increased six-fold. These new energy sources, especially oil, the easiest, allowed the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade and agriculture allowing the economy to expand greatly. It was accompanied by the growth of financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow's Expansion was collateral for Today's Debt.

But now we face the dawn of the Second Half of the Age of Oil when supply declines from natural depletion, meaning that debt goes bad (as is already happening) and the economy contracts. Today's oil supply support 6.7 billion people, but by 2050 the supply will be enough to support no more than about 2.5 billion in their present way of life. So the challenges of using less and finding other energy sources is great.

The transition threatens to be a time of great tension : there are already tribal wars in Africa, disturbances in many places including rioting in Greece. Urban conditions will become especially difficult.

World Oil Production Peaked in 2008

As everyone knows, there is never a post on The Oil Drum that the entire staff agrees on. Nonetheless, Tony bases his findings on solid research, and a staff survey shows that most agree with a 2008 peak. A post discussing whether an alternate scenario with a second later peak might be feasible is planned for later.

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.


World Oil Production to 2012 - click to enlarge

Sources for historical data: world crude and condensate (EIA) but with oil sands excluded, oil sands (CAPP), and world natural gas liquids (EIA).

BBC Covers Peak Oil: A Farm for the Future

Most would agree the subject of peak oil has not received the mainstream media coverage its importance warrants. On Friday the BBC will be broadcasting an excellent peak oil documentary; it focuses on farming. Presenter and co-producer Rebecca Hosking explores the importance of oil in farming and the potential impact of peak oil. The film has a passionate narrative centred on Rebecca’s small family farm in South West England; can she make her farm fit for the future?

A Farm for the Future
Fri 20 Feb 2009, 20:00 on BBC Two, repeated Sun 22 Feb, 17:00 on BBC Two (and also available on iPlayer).

World Oil Exports [02] Libya



Where are Libya's oil exports headed?

Libya is a relatively new country, having declared independence in 1951. For the last 39 years, the country has been ruled by a single man, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi. Over the years, the identity of this leader and his exquisite sense of style have mingled with the identity of the country itself.

Libya joined OPEC right after its creation, and played a pivotal role in the 1973 oil crisis. For the next three decades, Libya endured tense (and sometimes belligerent) relations with western countries. In recent years, as international oil prices have been rising, Libya has been able to re-institute itself as a reliable partner to the West, taking full advantage of the wealth promised by its still considerable oil resources.

Report from 33d Intl. Geology Congress in Norway (By Charlie Hall)

Below is an email sent by Professor Charles Hall from SUNY-Syracuse detailing his recent trip to an international Geology conference in Norway. Though written for his friends and colleagues, I thought the details and insights he shared from his trip to Norway would be worth sharing with the TOD readership, particularly the comments on peak oil and climate change. Charlie also tells me he has a new paper published next week on EROI economics which I will format and post here.

Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production



This is a guest post by Jean Laherrère

Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates

In his recent post, Ace assumes ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) in Saudi Arabia to be 175 Gb (billion barrels). With 112 Gb already produced, that leaves only 63 Gb remaining. Colin Campbell (the founder of ASPO) has estimated total reserves for Saudi Arabia of 275 Gb (news letter 66), believed to be C+C+NGL (crude oil + condensate + natural gas liquids). There is an enormous discrepancy between this and Ace's analysis that ought to be explained.


This post is a brief summary of my views on Saudi reserves and production. My conclusion is that Saudi Arabia likely has at least 120 Gbs of remaining reserves (C+C+NGL) for a URR in excess of 240 Gbs (C+C+NGL). The remaining reserves according to this analysis are almost double those reported by Ace.

Lies, damned lies and BP statistics

I almost choked on my whisky when I heard on the UK national television news (13/06/07), a story about peak oil and questions asked about oil reserves figures quoted in the newly published BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

The news item was referring to a story in Thursday’s Independent (14/06/07) (a national UK newspaper) by Daniel Howden titled “Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years’ time.” Howden refers to the work of Chris Skrebowski (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre or ODAC) and Colin Campbell (Association for Peak Oil or ASPO). Kudos to Chris and to Colin for getting this news onto the front page.

There’s more…..

Note that the Indepent's server has been very slow on occasions. A pdf of Howden's article may be downloaded from the TOD server here