One of the central underpinnings of neo-classical economics is trade. And one of the central tenets of trade is the the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage. Trade (in theory) benefits both parties because they are better off after the exchange. But our international trade system has, by baby steps, become completely dependent on crude oil. By air, water, land or rail, oil accounts for 99% of all transportation energy. As we move up the complexity chain in the products that make up our daily lives, are we moving further into a Chinese finger trap where there is no backing out?

This post will examine the theory of international trade and the hierarchy of goods transport, production and consumption. It is quite possible that in the next decade, the increase in price (or the decreasing availability) of oil, will offset the benefits of many types of trade.

The pursuit of economic efficiency, through increasingly diverse and extensive global trade has glossed over two important facts which this post will examine: 1)higher oil prices in long distance transport must at some point exceed (economically or otherwise) the benefits achieved from some trade and 2)a complex global trade system is gradually but pervasively decreasing the ability for localities, regions and nations to be self sufficient – so many of our supply chain inputs are imported that a large increase in oil prices may resurrect import substitution policies, not only for less developed countries, but for the US and rich nations as well.

International Trade - A Chinese Finger Trap?