The Oil Drum

Today, I wanted to bring to your attention the human cost of Cyclone Gonu on Oman. The area has been getting very little coverage, but from what I can tell, this was quite a tragedy. As newsbriefsOman is reporting:

49 people have been reported killed in the aftermath of Cyclone Gonu and 27 people are still missing, according to Oman News Agency. The Ministry of Information website cannot be reached at the time of writing. I have seen no published estimates of the cost of damage, but it is likely to be huge.

There are three sites that I can find that have any information about what you can do to help these people and/or raise awareness (and even those (that I can find as of today) do not have links to legitimate and/or accessible charities or philanthropy that anyone outside of the area can donate to--anyone have any ideas on this?):

* http://sleeplessinmuscat.blogspot.com/
* http://gonu.blogspot.com/ (created by the founder of Sleepless in Muscat--but there's nowhere in here to send help)
* http://www.newsbriefsoman.info/ (this one seems to be a news aggregator that existed prior to the storm from someone in Britain)

Please feel free to list other sites, ideas, news and information in the comment thread below.

These people, especially those we of in Oman, look to have suffered greatly from this storm. (We are also hearing that people living on the southern coast of Iran are also in bad shape, but I can't find a site, etc., or much news on them either).

There is nothing wrong with visiting these sites and giving them comfort and leaving them a "Salaam 'alaikum" (which means "peace be unto you"). If you are so inclined, we can certainly at least raise awareness and try to get these people some help.

As of noon EDT on 6/7, this is the Gonu post of record.

The final models from Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF are in and they are forecasting, based on their damage models, that:

* Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal: 18 days down time
* Mina al Fahal oil terminal: 14 days down time

(NB: These final damage estimates decreased a bit from initial runs but have been close to these numbers all along--all assume US construction standards.)

Why did we spend so much time on this? As I said before, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum is plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets--as a sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman. This has not changed. Had Gonu remained a more powerful cyclone, because of the lack of supply available to the market I mention above, the scenario could have played out quite differently.

And even so, there are a lot of things we do not know yet. The storm still may have affected petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall--factors we are still learning about.

I am happy that the human and material cost of this storm has been much smaller than we expected to this point. I hope that people do not forget the people whose lives have been changed by this storm...and there are many in Oman and other countries who need our charitable help. I hope that the news continues to be better than we expected--but I still stand by my decision to cover this storm closely on The Oil Drum.

Under the fold (hit "there's more") are links to previous threads and links to all of the resources we used over the course of the coverage of Gonu. We would ask that you deposit new material in this comment thread.

New thread for Cyclone Gonu as of noon EDT, 6/7 can be found here...please put new material in the comment thread there.

Exclusive--Please credit The Oil Drum and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF. KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards. (NB: These damage estimates have decreased a bit since the last model run...and assume US construction standards.)

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in earlier threads, let's replicate that here today in the third thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10pm EDT, 6/6. This still could be an important event--but we are in a slow news time right now regarding Oman and the area. If you have any insights, please let us know--email us or put them in the comment thread. We're digging on this too...

Here are links to our first Cyclone Gonu Thread (6/4) and our second thread on the same topic (6/5).

Please put all new resources and insights here as of 1am EDT 6/6, but make sure to check out the first two threads as well.

Why might Cyclone Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets--as a sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman also matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade.

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran that could be affected depending on the strength of Gonu.

Also, click "there's more" below for more graphics, forecasts, and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...

Newest Gonu thread created on the front page with newest information as of noon EDT on 6/7/07--the new link can be found by clicking here or you can also find it by going to the front page of TOD at theoildrum.com, we'll have a link there for the foreseeable future that will take you to our most recent coverage!

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in the first thread, let's replicate that here today in the second thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 8pm EDT, 6/5.

Here is a link to the first Cyclone Gonu Thread from yesterday. Please put all new resources and insights here as of 7:30am EDT 6/5, but make sure to check out the first thread as well.

Also, click "there's more" below for MUCH more graphics and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...but you are likely to want to go to link noted above for the most recent coverage.