Stories tagged with "daniel yergin"

Countdown to $200 oil (12) - betting on Yergin

Posted by Jerome a Paris on November 11, 2008 - 5:46pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: $100 oil, $200 oil, cera, daniel yergin, original [list all tags]

It's been a while since I did a Countdown diary - no wonder, given that oil is now below $60, ie at the same level as when I started the initial "Countdown to $100 oil" series back in 2005...

While the $200 target looks to be some ways off right now, given the expectations of a massive global downturn, the mechanism that has been pushing prices down is the same one that had been pushing prices up in the first part of the year. As I explained in this recent opus of the series: it's the marginal cost of demand destruction that matters, rather than the marginal cost of production. Demand was driving prices up when it was strong, and it is now driving prices down just as brutally by crumbling just as spectacularly (whether directly, finally, because of high prices, or indirectly via the economic crunch).

But we now, unexpectedly, have a strong "buy" signal again: an article by CERA's Daniel Yergin telling us that current prices are justified.

There's more… (567 words) | Comments (52) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Peak Oil Overview - June 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)

Posted by Gail the Actuary on June 26, 2008 - 3:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, eia, eor, fsu, introduction, oil reserves, opec, original, overview, peak oil, peak oil presentation [list all tags]

This is an update of my Peak Oil Overview at March '08. The major changes since my earlier post are the recent apparent decline in Russian production, the new ASPO peak oil projection, and discussion of the recent consumer producer summit in Saudi Arabia (slide 14). I also mention the expected change in IEA's November 2008 forecast of world production.

This is a summary of the peak oil story at June 2008. The major themes of this presentation are

• The US oil story
• The world oil story
• Five myths

I have put this summary together in the format of a PowerPoint presentation plus notes. In this format, it is a multi-purpose document. You can

1. Read the post yourself, with or without my comments.

2. Use the presentation (PDF) as a handout, to give to one or two of your friends. My comments are intended to give you some more background, so you can better explain the presentation and answer questions.

3. Use the presentation for a group, using the PowerPoint format.

The PDF version of this presentation is available here. The PowerPoint version is available here.

There's more… (3979 words) | Comments (146) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Discussion Thread for CNBC's America's Oil Crisis

Posted by Prof. Goose on May 22, 2008 - 8:00pm
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: cnbc, daniel yergin, john kilduff, oil, oil prices, peak oil, t. boone pickens [list all tags]

A show on CNBC tonight at 8p and again at 11p EDT, called America's Oil Crisis, may be worth discussing. Here's an open thread for you.

The first real segment of the show is John Kilduff v. Dan Yergin. It was a contrast in styles and substance, shall we say?

Comments (103) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Happy Third Yergin Day: A Poll

Posted by Prof. Goose on April 16, 2008 - 9:50am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, poll, three yergins sure is a lot of yergins [list all tags]

In our last poll on 5 MAR (and here's the accompanying comment thread), 43% of you predicted that CL would hit $115 in the front month. We've passed it, but we haven't closed at it yet.

Either way, I thought a new poll was in order to celebrate Three Yergin Day. This is the comment thread, the poll is in the link below.

Comments (60) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock

Posted by Nate Hagens on February 17, 2008 - 11:01am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, ihs energy, production, supply [list all tags]

We have been writing for almost 3 years on this site about the privatization of energy data by IHS Energy and the negative impact the lack of accuracy that CERA's historically optimistic claims are having on energy policy. The rebuttals and counteranalysis at TOD to CERAs assertions are too numerous to list. Today at the IHS Energy Conference in Houston, the CEO of IHS Energy, parent of CERA and other energy information agencies, asserted that Peak Oilers don't have the data to support their claims. This post is a brief rebuttal to this 'news' coming out of Houston, and a plea to refocus the questions to what is relevant and probable, not on what is irrelevant and unlikely.





Source - various - detailed here by G. Morton(Click to enlarge)

There's more… (1762 words) | Comments (303) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable

Posted by Prof. Goose on January 10, 2008 - 11:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin [list all tags]

This is a guest post by Glenn Morton, a geophysicist in the oil industry. For Kerr-McGee Oil and Gas Corp., Glenn served as Geophysical Mgr Gulf of Mexico, Geophysical Mgr for the North Sea, Dir. of Technology and as Exploration Director of China. Currently he is an independent consulting geophysicist, and he is known here at TOD affectionately as seismobob.

This post started when I heard Daniel Yergin, the CERA Energy Analyst interviewed by Larry Kudlow on Sept. 14, 2007 on CNBC. Yergin claimed that the high price of oil was not supported by the fundamentals. My jaw fell to the floor. Last year (2006), the price of oil deserved to plummet by 20% (which it did). The amount of oil in storage tanks was very high. But this year, week on week, the oil in storage has dropped, meaning that the fundamentals do support a higher price than last year. The chart is below; note that in 2007 (red curve) the US storage numbers are way way down from what they were in 2006 and we haven't even had a hurricane.

There's more… (1643 words) | Comments (141) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down? -- Our Response to CERA

Posted by Dave Cohen on February 4, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, peter jackson [list all tags]

ED by PG: This article was originally posted November 16th, 2006. Note that it has been resubmitted to reddit and digg this morning, so do help spread the word and give Dave some more readers if you are so inclined. Send the link to someone today.

With the release of Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down — Myths, Legends and the Future of Oil Resources by Peter M. Jackson, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) attempts to cast doubt on the credibility of those with imminent, empirically-based concerns about our future oil supply.

CERA's "Decision Brief" requires a response because since 1870, the health of the world's economies have hinged on a secure, dependable and growing flow of "conventional" oil. Their forecast, shown in Figure 1, predicts that the oil supply will continue to grow and sustain economic growth.


Figure 1 — Click to Enlarge

We shall have much more to say about CERA's forecast later. For now, it is sufficient to note that CERA's analysis is lacking. The world's oil supply will not continue to grow to meet ever-rising global demand, and worse, the consequences could irrevocably damage global economies. Such an outcome would have harmful effects on people's lives. So, this debate is not "academic" — much depends on a correct analysis of the future oil supply.

There's more… (4009 words) | Comments (371) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

The Newsweek Special Edition on Energy

Posted by Heading Out on December 18, 2006 - 1:13pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: daniel yergin, maugeri, newsweek, oil production, russia [list all tags]

For the past week I have been in the United Kingdom, beginning in South-West Scotland, where the weather was not kind. I was struck, driving along beside the dams of the Galloway Hydro Scheme with the central dam spilling, and rain sheeting down, by the limits that there are on some forms of renewable power. Here, with fields flooded (all the way down to the Pennines) the limited capacity of the system to store energy above a certain point is a bound that is also found in systems such as wind farms which generally produce power between two limiting wind conditions. Seeking options in a Glasgow hotel for things to do, the front desk suggested either the bar or a movie in one's room. And while this is really the best of seasons for Hunting the Haggis we chose, instead to take a day in Edinburgh before taking the, surprisingly un-crowded, train down to London. Our train was only slightly delayed by track-work to repair weather-related problems, which were not as bad as elsewhere.

The vast numbers of folk trying to move through London's airports this weekend were providing a good reason to show up at least two hours before departure, and though we were ready for the shuttle two-and-a-half hours before departure at the local hotel, the problems the shuttle had with traffic made it just barely possible for us to catch our plane. As we headed across the waiting lounge, however, the thought of a ten-hour flight caused me to stop and snatch a copy of the recent Special Edition of Newsweek, dealing with the Energy Issue. Since I just got back, I am not quite sure how much of this has already been covered, but perhaps I can provide comment to some of the articles in the issue.

There's more… (1523 words) | Comments (68) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Some Predictions from the Time when Today Was the Future of Oil

Posted by Heading Out on December 12, 2006 - 7:53pm
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: cera, daniel yergin, demand, fuel use, nrc, oil supply, opec [list all tags]

After my post about the “The Prize” video there was a short discussion in comments about earlier predictions made by Dr Yergin, and the book “Energy Future - Report of the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School, ” which he co-authored with Robert Stobaugh. Now back when those studies came out I was also trying to read the tea leaves to see what sort of a future our own students would have. At the time coal seemed to get more attention and favor than it now holds, so there is a little more emphasis there. Let me begin with “Energy Future” which begins with an interesting paragraph (given it was written in 1979).
In 1968, the State Department sent the word to foreign governments-American oil production would soon reach the limits of its capacity. Friendly governments needed to know that the cushion of the U.S.’s extra capacity, which could be called into production during an emergency, was about to disappear. The end of an era was at hand.
There were two dramatic oil prices increases in the 1970’s, the first which multiplied the price of oil eight-fold by the end of 1974 over that when the State Department sent out the memo, and the second, which came with the fall of the Shah of Iran some five years later, when the price of oil went up another two-and-a-half times. As a result not only Dr Yergin's collaborative effort editing a second book “Global Insecurity – A Strategy for Energy and Economic Renewal”, (from which the last sentence came) but a significant number of other august bodies also began to produce their own projections. For your amusement I thought you might like to see some of them.
There's more… (1124 words) | Comments (29) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version

Reflections on "The Prize"

Posted by Heading Out on December 2, 2006 - 3:01pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: daniel yergin, oil industry history [list all tags]

The PBS Series based on "The Prize" was made in 1993, just after the first Gulf War. The final episode, which I have just watched, dealt with a look, from that time, into the future and the 21st Century. Some 13 years later it is interesting to watch that tape and see where we have, and have not, made progress.

The final episode dwelt much more on the impact of the oil economy on the environment than on the history of the industry, which was the original point of the book and the focus of the earlier seven episodes. A somewhat younger Jeremy Leggett discussed the threats that oil and the pollution that it caused held for the future of the world. (The burning oilfields of Kuwait provided a dramatic emphasis). White Knights was the only Western Oil Company drilling in Siberia, to help the Former Soviet Union bring back it's oil industry, one that was in truly bad shape. (And the cooperation of the native tribes of the Yamal Peninsula could be had for the price of 10 snow-mobiles. How times have changed !) And the then Chairman of Shell, the largest oil company at the time, promised that they would be around for a long time into the future. There was just one, almost missed, reference to the fact that, as American oil had peaked, so would world oil production. It came from the past President of ARCO, and was given no real emphasis in the program.

There's more… (468 words) | Comments (88) | | Permalink | Without comments | PDF version