The Oil Drum

Sometimes it is hard to grasp the size of the problem that is now facing the world. One way is, perhaps, to relate it to time. A hundred thousand seconds is just under 28 hours; a million seconds is eleven and a half days, and both are graspable numbers. A billion seconds is, however, 31.7 years, which is almost half a lifetime, and on a different scale of perception. So it is with the world energy supply, it is easy to talk about the necessary changes in individual lifestyle, or to debate whether a single power station/wind farm should or should not be built. Those issues are relatively easy to appreciate and debate. But trying to convey the problems when crude oil and natural gas supplies will drop by over a billion barrels of oil equivalent in a year carries the debate beyond the numbers that are as easy to grasp or assimilate.

This past week I was asked (outside this forum) to give an opinion on H.R. 364, a bill in the US Congress “to provide for the establishment of the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy.” This seems to follow the earlier H.R. 507 “Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the "Man on the Moon" project to address the inevitable challenges of "Peak Oil". This was developed by Congressman Bartlett, who began by making speeches on the floor about Peak Oil, and who joined with Congressman Udall to found the Congressional “Peak Oil” Caucus and to co-sponsor the resolution. Congressman Bartlett is a co-sponsor of H.R. 364.

So I am going to seize this opportunity to give some thoughts on research funding in general, and some possible political realities. But let me start by saying that I think that the bill is a very good idea.

One of the most critical aspects of military operations is the reliance on fuel. I was struck by that as I am currently half-way through the video series based on Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" and have just watched the segment on the Second World War. Access to oil was critical to success. Assuring that access has, as a result, been a critical part of military preparedness. It is therefore interesting to see, courtesy of Leanan and the Energy Bulletin (pdf available at that site), that the one-time general in charge of the U.S. Army Material Command, is now, as a scholar at West Point, concerned enough about oil supply to write a paper. The paper begins

Without ready alternatives to replace ever more costly and scarce oil, we are entering an age of uncertainty and insecurity unlike any other that could include economic stagnation or even reversal. Although the military will always have access to the fuel required for national security missions, the costs will rise substantially in the near future and require the reallocation of resources from other critical mission elements and programs.