Stories tagged with "demand"

Oilwatch Monthly November 2009

The November 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp).

Figure 1 - OECD Crude Oil & Product Stocks from January 2002 to September 2009

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand

Standard economic principles have demonstrated that price is a function of supply and demand. The same is true for the recent  oil prices fluctuations we have witnessed over the last few years, namely the equilibrium between supply and demand. However, the following conundrum has not been resolved: are oil prices high due to greater demand or too little supply? This ambiguity allows for vastly divergent interpretations of the same data and depending on the agenda you are trying to push, will easily support either. 

Lately, the concept of "Peak demand" has been suggested in a multitude of recent articles that unfortunately do not qualify their analysis of the status quo. Some suggest that we are willing to and capable of moving away from oil. Are we?

A few years ago, some analysts lectured us about the effect of oil prices on the creation of new oil supply. Now that this argument has clearly failed, they have decided over night that we don't need oil anymore. In this debate, it is important to distinguish between demand (what you want or need) and consumption (what you get based on your ability to buy). Following this logic, consumption is "satisfied demand". Conversly, we can define the "unsatisfied demand" or "excess demand" that has been suppressed. Below the fold, I'll show that the key driver behind the price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply.

Oilwatch Monthly October 2009

The October 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.37 MB, 33 pp).

Figure 1 - EU-27, United States and Chinese oil consumption from January 2004 to August 2009

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

Oilwatch Monthly September 2009

The September 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.37 MB, 33 pp).

Figure 1 - OPEC spare capacity according to the Energy Information Administration from January 2003 to August 2009

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

Oilwatch Monthly August 2009

The August 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.3 MB, 33 pp).

Figure 1 - Non-OPEC crude oil production from January 2004 to May 2009

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email address and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

Oil price: where next?



A reduction in global oil production capacity will mean that higher future oil price will be attained at a lower level of demand than in 2008. Is another oil price spike on the way?

Oilwatch Monthly July 2009

The July 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.3 MB, 32 pp).

Figure 1 - OECD oil imports from 1st quarter 2002 to 4th quarter 2008

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email address and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

Oilwatch Monthly June 2009

The June 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 2.0 MB, 28 pp).

Figure 1 - Iraq crude oil & Liquids fuel production from January 2005 to May 2009.

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The Trouble With Energy - Part 2.

Part 1 can be found here. This series of posts will be co-authored by phoenix, who is an Engineer heavily involved in the energy sector. It will be based on a submission we made recently to the Australian Government. Obviously, projections of this type are difficult. This is an attempt to provide a model for this kind of projection. We then use the model to provide some insights into just how hard the conversion will be for Australia.

How Much Time Do We Have?

Since Australia has one of the largest per capita endowments of energy resources, it is easy to be lulled into a false security that this benefit will last forever. This impression is boosted by quoted production vs. demand figures exceeding 100 years. The reality of our energy security is not so rosy.

As discussed above, most production vs. resource figures are established by assuming a continuation of the current demand or extraction rate. While this may be a reasonable methodology for determination of the life of a mine or the value of the resource it is patently false for determination of our overall resource security. Demand rates for all of our energy resources are climbing year by year.

The paradigm of continually increasing growth driven by an increasing population and an expectation of improving standards of living demands a continuing increase in production of our natural resources. The following table shows Australia’s major non renewable energy resources together with their expected life calculated on this basis.

Oilwatch Monthly May 2009

The May 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 2.0 MB, 28 pp).

Figure 1 - World liquids production from January 2004 to May 2009.

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.