Stories tagged with depletion
Peak Phosphorus
Posted by Prof. Goose on August 17, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: agriculture, depletion, hubbert linearization, original, phosphorus, recycling [list all tags]
Peak oil has made us aware that many of the resources on which civilization depends are limited.
M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist for Shell Oil, found that oil production over time followed a curve that was roughly bell-shaped. He correctly predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak in 1970. Other analysts following Hubbert's methods are predicting a peak in oil production early this century.
The depletion analysis pioneered by Hubbert can be applied to other non-renewable resources. Analysts have looked at peak production for resouces such as natural gas, coal and uranium.
In this paper, Patrick Déry applies Hubbert's methods to a very special non-renewable resource - phosphorus - a nutrient essential for agriculture.
Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection
Posted by Heading Out on April 9, 2007 - 10:30am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: abqaiq, depletion, ghawar, GOSP, noc, North Ain Dar, reserves, saudi arabia, water injection [list all tags]
I thought that, with the indulgence of the more technically qualified of the commentators, I might take a little time to explain in my own way, some of the many issues that were debated here at TOD over the past week. So, this post is going to be a little bit of a simplified technical explanation of some of those issues--and I will try to bring in some of the comments explaining the issues that appeared somewhat far down the list in our comment threads as well.
But first there was an interesting piece of data that I hadn’t seriously noted until I saw the article. It relates to the actual size of the reserves that remain in Saudi Arabia, a subject I usually shy away from since production rates are more interesting. However, given the numbers it is worth consideration and debate as to what these particular values mean.
Uranium Depletion and Nuclear Power: Are We at Peak Uranium?
Posted by Prof. Goose on March 21, 2007 - 12:00pm
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: depletion, nuclear energy, uranium [list all tags]
This is a guest post by Miquel Torres.
A recent post by Martin Sevior has invigorated the nuclear energy debate causing over 240 comments with the most diverse opinions. I would like to further pursue this debate, as the question of whether nuclear power can provide a big part of the worlds energy needs is extremely important in the Peak Oil debate, because it is the only alternative energy source beside coal providing the type of electricity production necessary for the current electric grid model: big, base-load capable power plants. If that role is fulfilled, the current electricity production system can continue beyond Peak Oil, and even expand to provide the energy necessary for electrified transport. If it falls short, a new energy model is needed.
Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
Posted by Khebab on November 13, 2006 - 11:45am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: depletion, m. king hubbert, russia, saudi arabia, type ii, type iii, world production [list all tags]
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group. My observations are the following:
- The type III group (~56 countries) seems to have peaked around 1999 at 40 mbpd with an URR around 1.0Tb and a cumulative production of 600 Gb in 2005.
- The decline rate in the group III is currently around 1% per year but will accelerate with time and possibility reach 2% after 2010
- When a high case scenario for the production derived from the Canadian Tar Sands is included, the decline rate will be reduced around 0.5% per year until 2010.
- In order to satisfy a relatively moderate demand growth at 1.5%/year, the supply coming from the type II group should be around 3.5-4.0%/year and reach a production level of 56-59 mbpd in 2010 (from 40 mbpd in 2005).
- The total production from Russia and Saudi Arabia that are leading the type II group, is almost flat since mid-2004 despite record oil prices.
Production from the type II group added to the logistic curve modeling the production coming from the type III group. The dots represents the actual values for the world production of crude oil + NGL.
Cautionary note: In this story, I'm talking strictly about production of Crude Oil plus Condensate and NGPL (CO+NGL in short).
Depletion estimates and the CGES
Posted by Heading Out on August 25, 2006 - 1:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: abqaiq, cges, depletion, saudi arabia [list all tags]
I learned, to begin with that
Although it seems straightforward, depletion as a concept is not easy to pin down. The very use of the word "depletion" in this context - synonymous as it is with exhaustion - implies that oil resources are being run down and that one day they will dwindle into insignificance. Oil resources may well become insignificant in the years to come, but it is not certain whether this will be due to their physical exhaustion or to the world moving away from oil and towards another source of energy.Unfortunately, this suggests, as does the tone of much of the article that follows, that being concerned about oil supplies, largely from the point of the reserve available, is a pointless worry. I say unfortunately because this cornucopian view of the world of oil glosses over the changing situation in the world and conceals some of the assumptions that it makes, by hiding them within the overbounding simplification of its argument.
The depletion of Abqaiq
Posted by Heading Out on August 20, 2006 - 11:52pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: abqaiq, depletion, horizontal wells, peak oil, waterflood [list all tags]
To begin, Abqaiq, like most giant fields, has been around for a long time, and when it was first developed, by a relatively small group during the Second World War, there were many other things going on that limited development so that it took 4 years to go from drilling the first well to the fifth. Technology was not nearly as advanced as it is now, and the wells were spaced considerably further apart than the spacing I placed mine at in the model. Further while I had estimated the OIP as being some 62 billion barrels, based on porosity, in reality the number was half that. I am grateful that both westexas and plucky underdog had the reasons for this.
The life of an oil reservoir
Posted by Heading Out on August 14, 2006 - 11:54pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: depletion, horizontal wells, oil production, water flood [list all tags]
Let me start by assuming that I have a layer of rock that is 300 ft thick, five miles wide and thirty miles long. Let us then assume that this has been folded in the middle, so that it now has trapped oil within all the pores of the rock. And, for the sake of discussion let's assume that it has a porosity of 20%. Now having found this reservoir - which is, let's say some 6,500 ft below the current surface of the ground - back some years ago, the oil moguls of the time decided to drill into it and extract the oil.
Is there a CTL in your future
Posted by Heading Out on May 17, 2006 - 11:57pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: aramco, coal-to-liquids, depletion, peak light oil, saudi arabia [list all tags]
The company has a project in East Dubuque, Illinois, which it expects to be the first commercial coal-to-liquids plant in the United States by 2010. Even before that, it expects to show the project is doable. A demo plant in Colorado will be producing 10 barrels of coal-based oil a day by the first quarter of 2007, says Ramsbottom."The future of coal-to-liquids in the United States is no longer a theoretical, what-if, conversation," says Ramsbottom. "We plan to have a fully commercial, fully operational coal-to-liquids plant up and running by 2010.
An Economist response, or is it a techie Sunday?
Posted by Heading Out on April 24, 2006 - 3:57pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: depletion, economist, production, saudi arabia [list all tags]
There are several ways to address the issues of the article (you will have to wait a bit for discussion of the author's book since I only ordered it on Friday), but it appears to me that a primary criticism has to lie in the misunderstanding that the author appears to have about the role of technology and the slow speed with which things happen. I am not going to argue the point that there is still a lot of oil lying around. Yes there is, and even when we have depleted a field, we are leaving perhaps 60% or more of the original oil in place. And yes, given enough money and time we can even get that oil out.
Nor am I going to argue, at present about the longer-term existence of large volumes of oil. Rather, I would argue that the problem that we have is of getting an adequate supply of oil, each year, to meet the demand that there will be for the oil in that year. Under the current methods of production, and against an increasing level of demand it is becoming more difficult to produce enough oil to meet that demand. There are two major reasons for this, neither of which is properly recognized in the Economist article.
Ignore Depletion At Your Peril
Posted by Stuart Staniford on November 30, 2005 - 12:55am
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: calpine, depletion, electricity, hubbert peak, natural gas [list all tags]
Power merchant Calpine Corp. said Tuesday that it has replaced its longtime chief executive as well as its chief financial officer in an abrupt shake up that sent the company's stock price below $1 as investors fretted about a possible bankruptcy.

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