Stories tagged with "discount rates"
Tuna, Toilet paper, and Timing
Posted by Nate Hagens on July 12, 2009 - 10:44am in The Oil Drum: Campfire
Topic: Sociology/Psychology
Tags: campfire, collapse, discount rates, hoarding, intergenerational equity, original, toilet paper [list all tags]
Concern about global resource depletion, at least in certain circles, is generating individual hoarding behavior - I don't know how prevalent this is, the potential advantages it will ultimately confer, or any of the subtleties of the'must have' list. This brief Campfire essay is a (somewhat disjointed) exploration of the short term translation of financial capital into basic goods, from the perspective of long term timing and social trajectories. (I expect it will generate some good discussion, especially following Luis' piece on Sustainability)

The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Overconsumption Revisited
Posted by Nate Hagens on June 25, 2009 - 10:15am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: addiction, aspiration gap, conspicuous consumption, discount rates, endowment effect, evolution, impulsivity, neuroscience, novelty, oil addiction, original, ratchet effect, reward, salience, status [list all tags]
This post examines our own history on the planet, outlines how the ancient-derived reward pathways of our brain are easily hijacked by modern stimuli, and concludes that in very real ways, we have become addicted to the 'consumptive behaviors' linked to oil.

Gold Plated Porsche
Editor's note: I have learned a great deal more on the twin drivers of consumption - relative status and habituation/addiction since what follows was first written. However, despite best intentions, I am personally even more habituated to stimulation offered in modern American culture and my life still has about the same physical dependence on oil's emergent properties as it did back then. On the bright side however, I have continued my decade long shift of 'competition for status' away from pecuniary metrics...
Status and Curiosity - On the Origins of Oil Addiction
Posted by Nate Hagens on July 7, 2008 - 10:05am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: addiction, aspiration gap, conspicuous consumption, discount rates, endowment effect, evolution, impulsivity, neuroscience, novelty, oil addiction, original, ratchet effect, reward, salience, status [list all tags]
The Energy Return on Time
Posted by Nate Hagens on July 25, 2007 - 11:07am
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: demand, discount rates, efficiency, eroi, just-in-time, net energy, sustainability, time [list all tags]
While writing the recent piece on home heating, I was surprised to calculate many different numbers for the energy return on firewood. Though the outputs were only slightly different in quantity of BTUs, there was a wide range of inputs. But the primary reason for the return disparity was the presence of the market economy - those processing firewood for their own use had higher energy returns than those selling wood for profit - the accelerated drying time to process large amounts of wood required an additional wood input which dropped the energy return. Graphically this showed up as a tradeoff between maximizing energy return on TIME versus maximizing energy return on ENERGY. This reminded me that energy return is not a hard-and-fast principle, and also that society, obviously, will optimize its resources based on what it perceives to be its most limiting input(s). However, in an upcoming world constrained by energy, or any limiting variable other than time/money, we can increase our energy available by reducing the return on other inputs, such as time.
Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future
Posted by Nate Hagens on June 1, 2007 - 1:12pm
Topic: Sociology/Psychology
Tags: behavioral economics, climate change, discount rates, evolutionary biology, evolutionary psychology, impulsivity, neuro-economics, oil depletion [list all tags]
The debate on the realities of both climate change and Peak Oil has moved from 'are they real?' to questions concerning timing, magnitude and impact. At the same time, expanding research in 'temporal discounting' in economics (called 'impulsivity' in psychology), is shedding light on how steeply we value the present over the future, a trait with ancient origins. Knowing this tendency, how can we expect factual updates on peak oil and climate change to behaviorally compete with Starbucks, sex, slot machines, and ski trips? Science is rapidly increasing our knowledge about the planet. To affect change however, we might have to become equally knowledgeable about ourselves. Below the fold is an overview on human discount rates, their evolutionary origins, and their relevance to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change and peak oil.

"Dumbo, caught obsessing about higher planetary CO2, did not leave any descendants"
Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future
Posted by Nate Hagens on February 23, 2007 - 11:30am
Topic: Sociology/Psychology
Tags: climate change, discount rates, evolutionary biology, neuro-economics, peak oil [list all tags]
The debate on the realities of both climate change and Peak Oil has moved from 'are they real?' to questions concerning timing, magnitude and impact. At the same time, expanding research in 'temporal discounting' in economics (called 'impulsivity' in psychology), is shedding light on how steeply we value the present over the future, a trait that has ancient origins. Knowing this tendency, how can we expect factual updates on peak oil and climate change to behaviorally compete with Starbucks, sex, slot machines, and ski trips?
Science is rapidly increasing our knowledge about the planet. To affect change however, we must become equally knowledgeable about ourselves. The time has come to integrate ecological science with insight about human behavior derived from new findings in anthropology, hunter gatherer studies, evolutionary psychology and the neurosciences. Below the fold is an overview on human discount rates, their evolutionary origins, and their relevance to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change and peak oil.

"Dumbo, caught obsessing about higher planetary CO2, did not leave any descendants"



k Nation (Jim Kunstler)






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