The Oil Drum

Because it looks so dramatic, I thought to bring to the top the picture of US gasoline stocks, from the EIA.

The rest, in the same way as last time, follow below the fold.

It is the end of the first quarter and so I thought I would include in this post the graphs from the EIA showing the current state of stocks, in crude, gasoline and distillate.  This is more for historical reasons, since I gather that a number of us now glance at these as they come out every week.  However it does provide a snapshot of where we are at a time when the winter is over, and before the high demand of the summer driving season comes upon us.

The EIA in their summary comments have noted that the month will see a lot of refinery maintenance, and that this will reduce the stocks in gasoline, since demand will continue, while supply is reduced.  This, they suggest, may provide some additional pressure on prices over the month, despite a relatively even demand.

Hold on to your gas guzzlers: Cheap oil may once again be just around the corner. Even as consumers worry about high gasoline prices and rising heating bills, oil executives in London, Texas and Saudi Arabia seem to be concerned about a prospect of falling oil prices.

http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/12/04/business/outoil.php. Discuss.

A couple of weeks ago I heard the EIA presentation in which they anticipated that, by the end of the year, demand would have increased around 1.3 mbd.  Looking at the figures for the end of October (the first month of the 4th Quarter where demand is historically greatest) one sees that this prediction may well become true, at least the US is moving back in that direction.

Although the four-week averages of the gasoline demand show that demand is still approaching last year's, the weekly number has now passed 9 mbd, above last year.

However, as the import numbers suggest, taking individual weekly data by itself can be a mistake, since over the past week imports have turned back up by 200,000 bd after dipping down, and so are still that half-a-million above normal.

. At present the volume in stocks seems to remain fairly steady at the average of the past few years volume.

One of Jim Kunstler's favorite subjects is the collapse of "easy-motoring" suburbia and the business culture that serves it, all due to higher fuel costs in the future. This is the chief theme of The End of Suburbia.

Since World War II North Americans have invested much of their newfound wealth in suburbia. It has promised a sense of space, affordability, family life and upward mobility. As the population of suburban sprawl has exploded in the past 50 years, so too has the suburban way of life become embedded in the American consciousness....

The consequences of inaction in the face of this global crisis are enormous. What does Oil Peak mean for North America? As energy prices skyrocket in the coming years, how will the populations of suburbia react to the collapse of their dream? Are today's suburbs destined to become the slums of tomorrow?

No business symbolizes or exemplifies the suburban lifestyle more than WalMart. Recently, some cracks have appeared in the facade of this retail juggernaut. This report does not focus on WalMart's evil business practices. Instead, we investigate how higher energy costs are affecting their business as reported in Wal-Mart to Seek Savings in Energy published October 25th in the New York Times.

The next few weeks will begin to spell out the situation in regard to the production of gas and distillate fuels as we prepare for the winter.  Looking at distillate first.

It begins to appear that the refineries are switching around and that the EIA are now showing not only a swing upward in production but an increase in imports as well - perhaps not before time.  But then all the folk who will need fuel in the North East have already stocked up ! Right ?

On the other hand, with gasoline imports, it looks as though we have come to the end of the lollipop.  While the curve so far from the EIA shows only a slight kick over, but, remember that these are four week averages.

When one goes to the actual numbers the drop was from 1.54 mbd to 1.027 mbd. This could signify that we are at the end of the loan volume, which, since the refineries aren't up to full production yet, is a concern.  Certainly there are enough stocks at present, and with the inability to refine beyond a certain point there is more than enough crude to meet the refinery demand, if not the demand beyond it.

This, I suspect, may be where the juggling begins.