Stories tagged with "dollar"

A Change Coming to the World Monetary System?

Thoughts related to the world monetary system, and where it may be headed, below the fold.

Oil Prices and the €uro

Have We Reached an Inflection Point in Economics History?: “Indeflation” and Energy

[Ed's note by PG: This is a guest post by Chris Nelder, an energy analyst and journalist; his work can be found at GetRealList and Energy & Capital. Chris is the principal author of Profit from the Peak – The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century, and the co-author of Investing in Renewable Energy: Making Money on Green Chip Stocks.]

A fierce debate now rages among economists, investors, pundits and the puppetmasters of fiscal policy: What’s next, inflation or deflation?

Has the most massive money-printing spree in history successfully stimulated the global economy and put it back on an upward course with rising inflation? Or are we still in a global downturn, temporarily masked by the stimulus, with prices, wages and employment still falling?

A comforting 30% gain in the major stock market indexes since the March lows has given renewed confidence to the “green shoots” trumpeters who dominate the airwaves and the press.

But grayer and wiser heads in the investing community—like Dave Rosenberg, John Mauldin, Nouriel Roubini, Gary Shilling, Peter Schiff, and Dave Cohen—have a more bearish view. The financial sector must now deleverage, they argue, which means liquidating assets, repaying debt, saving instead of borrowing, and contracting in general. In their view, the process will take years, not months, and what we have seen since March is a classic bear market rally.

London G20 Meeting: The Last Chance?

As the G20 meeting that is supposed to “rebuild the Global Economy” begins, this post presents a few reflections on the likely major problem the world leaders face today: the damaged state of the world reserve currency system.

On the 24th of March, Frank Biancheri, head of the European think tank LEAP2020, published in the Financial Times the following open letter directed to the G20 leaders gathering in London on the 2nd of April:

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your next summit takes place in a few days in London; but are you aware that you have less than half a year to prevent the world from plunging into a crisis that will take at least a decade to resolve, accompanied by a whole series of tragedies and ferment? Therefore, this open letter by LEAP/E2020, who saw the arrival of a « global systemic crisis » as early as three years ago, intends to briefly explain why it happened and how to limit further damage. […]

Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout: Guess Who Wins

The bailout of Freddie and Fannie has just been announced by Hank Paulson, with supporting words from Bernanke. What's interesting in what's proposed, as usual, is what's unsaid. This would seem to be an incredibly ambitious gambit: a nationalisation, an attempted bailout of ALL the banks, and an open-ended commitment of taxpayer money to save the financial world.

A Dollar beyond the eighties

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is a measurement of the strength of the Dollar against six other freely exchangeable currencies. Since 2002 the Dollar embarked in a secular downward trend that brought the greenback to historic lows today.




















The USDX secular trend and rDollar channel since January of 2007. Click to enlarge.


Record UK Pound Oil Price

On the back of a 2% rise in the price of oil and 0.44% fall in the value of the UK pound against the US dollar today (Wed 29th Mar 05) I believe we have a new record price for oil when the US dollar price of West Texas Intermediate is expressed in UK pounds (hat tip ianbeale). Is this significant? I'm not sure - but I am surprised by the total lack of coverage of the high oil prices on television media today.

Today's $65.72 and 1.73515 dollars to the pound results in a value of £37.88 a barrel. With a stronger pound during the spike after Katrina the price only just crept above £37 and compared to May 2005 the ~$50 oil and exchange rate of over 1.9 resulted in a UK pound price of approximately £26.30. In less than a year prices when looked at like this have increased some 44%. Luckily the UK doesn't have to buy much US dollar denominated oil with UK pounds.

Graphs show dollar denominated oil prices and the dollar-pound exchange rate over the last year.




Click graphs to enlarge (source: BBC Market Data)