The Oil Drum

This is a guest story by Professor François Cellier.

François Cellier is a specialist in modeling and simulation of physical systems and is teaching system simulation and control at the Institute of Computational Science of ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises. To this end, we start out by exploring the concept of an ecological footprint, representing the amount of land that a person needs to produce everything that he or she consumes: food, clothing, energy, shelter, the tools that are needed to make the clothing, etc. and place it in relation with the human development index, a measure of the quality of life of an individual. We then relate the ecological footprint to the per capita energy consumption. This discussion serves to provide a quantitative understanding of the limited resources that are at our disposal.

The article continues by exploring the dangers and seductions of exponential growth, and uses a system dynamics approach to illustrate why we are moving at a rapid pace toward global collapse with our eyes wide shut.

The article ends by discussing what we would need to do in order to avoid the looming collapse.

I thought it was time to step far enough away from the myopia induced by current oil prices and, in so doing, provide sufficient space to review the the sustainability of the way we live. The title is taken from Jeffrey Dukes' 2003 paper Burning Buried Sunshine: Human Consumption of Ancient Solar Energy (pdf). Before moving on to Dukes' results, here is a summary of the findings of Mathis Wackernagel, et. al. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy (pdf).

Figure 1

Sustainability requires living within the regenerative capacity of the biosphere. In an attempt to measure the extent to which humanity satisfies this requirement, we use existing data to translate human demand on the environment into the area required for the production of food and other goods, together with the absorption of wastes. Our accounts indicate that human demand may well have exceeded the biosphere's regenerative capacity since the 1980s. According to this preliminary and exploratory assessment, humanity's load corresponded to 70% of the capacity of the global biosphere in 1961, and grew to 120% in 1999.