Stories tagged with "Economy"

Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Energy Crisis

This is a slide video of the presentation given by Gail Tverberg at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. Her talk is about Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Energy Crisis ( Presentation PDF 1.3 MB).

Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Financial Crisis from Rembrandt Koppelaar on Vimeo.

Hubbert's Peak - John Kinhart's Comic

John Kinhart gave us permission to repost this cartoon from Sorry Comics.

Jeff Rubin Talks about Oil and the Economy

Jeff Rubin talks about how skyrocketing oil prices will see a regression in global economies, and a return to local ones, as outlined in his new book, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.

Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the U.S. Economy


Gail, Jeff Rubin , and now James Hamilton (warning- pdf) of the University of California – San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions. In this post I, along with Steve Balogh, a fellow researcher here at the EROI Institute at SUNY-ESF, will add to this discourse.

2009: Predictions for Australia

As we exit 2008 it seems like a worthwhile exercise to consider from an Australian perspective what happened and what might come next. My “predictions” for 2009 and beyond should be viewed as nothing more than “Food For Thought”. When I review my past predictions (going back to early 2005) I find that the events of 2008 occurred earlier and were more pronounced than I predicted - So I don’t recommend betting money on this crop of forecasts!

I will use these predictions to define my actions over the next 12 months, so your views are welcome!

My Predictions 2009

Me at my crystal ball

Some Lessons from Bailout Month

Despite the first rejection of the Paulson Plan, the effort is ongoing in Washington to push through a plan that is likely to be substantially similar to the first one (as far as I can tell, the only changes will be tax cuts and the inclusion of the renewable energy bill items). Given the overwhelming pressure to "do something", and despite warnings that we are being rushed for no reason into a terrible plan, it is rather unlikely that the final version of the plan is going to be very satisfactory. In any case, the following will hold true irrespective of the outcome of the Paulson Plan.

(Note: This was written for the European Tribune this week-end, ie before the rejection of the plan by Congress, and before the most recent bank bailouts, but its conclusions stand)

  • the consequences of the financial crisis are so dire that the lesson here should not be that a bailout is necessary (it is, at this point) - but to acknowledge that the financial sector has the power to hold the rest of the economy to ransom during both good times and bad times and thus that it need to be emasculated so that we never get again to the stage where a bailout is necessary. The lesson is that the financial world cannot behave responsibly, if left to its own devices and thus should not be left to its own devices;
  • another is that the main argument to give financial markets a free hand — that they have created so much growth and prosperity — needs to be called for what it is: a lie. Not only the so-called prosperity of the past year was highly unequally shared (see the next point), but it was not even real, as the income and profits of the good years are now dwarfed by the losses of today. Arguments about growth need to be dismissed by a reference to the "full cycle," i.e. the prosperity of the recent past can only be accepted as real if it wasn't a capture of the prosperity of today and the near future. If the forthcoming growth and GDP numbers are dismal, this should be seen as a direct proof that the growth of the past was nothing but, and that the policy prescriptions focused on financial profit are abject failures;

What would $120 oil mean for the global economy?

The pdf is a short report written by Robert F. Wescott and published in April 2006 by Securing America’s Future Energy. It was written when oil was ~$60 a barrel and addressed a scenario where the price of oil surged to $120 due to coordinated terrorist attacks on global oil transport infrastructure. Well, here we are, two years on at $120 oil (without the attacks) so it’s worth revisiting the analysis in light of the conclusion:

The main conclusion of this note is that $120 oil would have profound negative effects on the world economy and global financial markets.
...

Such oil prices would almost certainly precipitate a global recession.


Click to download pdf

Riding On The Back Of A Coal Truck

I was complaining about the "Australian disease" in my post about coal to liquids last week, as it became clear just how much King Coal is coming to dominate the local economy.

Ross Gittens can see the sunny side of this though in today's Sydney Morning Herald, as he idly contemplates the de-industrialisation of the economy and the transformation of the nation into a giant quarry in "Everything's coming up roses", in which he predicts that we'll be "riding on the back of a coal truck" for the next few decades.

Global warming apparently isn't a problem in his eyes - or at least not one that people will bother to try and mitigate by burning less coal.

ODAC Newsletter, Saturday 20 October

Topics include:

Economy – UK and Europe; Geopolitics - Caspian; Coal / China / Kyoto Protocol; Natural Gas - Iran; Russia - Wheat Exports; ASPO-USA P.O. Conf. – Media Response; Economy - USA

ODAC Newsletter, Monday 15 October

Topics include:

Oil Price; Economy - UK; Economy - USA; Population; Unconventional Oil Production Forecasts; Coal - UK; Peak Minerals.